Synanthropization of Vegetation in the Upper Belts of the Seminskii Range (the Altai Mountains)

Specific features of vegetation synanthropization under the effect of human activities and a long-term grazing load were studied in the subalpine and upper mountain-forest belts of the Seminskii Range.     

Total Lead and Stable Lead Isotopes in Stockholm Sediments

Lead (Pb) in the environment is derived from both naturaland anthropogenic sources. The aim of this study is to estimate the isotopic signature of anthropogenic Pb in sediments from a highly contaminated area (Stockholm), to discuss the influence of different sources on this signature, and to suggest natural Pb background concentrations. Also distribution patterns and differences between different water areas in Stockholm have been studied, both by total Pb and stable Pb isotopes. In 1993, sediment samples were collected at 24 stations in the Stockholm area and analysed for total Pb, zirconium (Zr), scandium (Sc) and stable Pb isotopes (^{204, 206-208}Pb). Total Pb data show that the Stockholm sediments are severely contaminated by Pb. The contamination seems to be rather local since the small lakes surrounding the central parts of Stockholm are much less effected than the central parts. Stockholm is clearly influenced by anthropogenic and natural sources, but in some of the small lakes also by Pb in zircons from the geological basement. The anthropogenic Pb in Stockholm has typical ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratios of 0.85–0.89 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of 36–38, which are distinct from natural sources. Pb/Sc ratios suggest that the natural background Pb concentration is 10–20 mg kg^-1 d.w.     

NIEO revisited: A new international environmental order in the making

In the past, most of the attempts to improve the situation of the developing countries have focused on economic policy, on the conditions of international trade, on aid and direct investment. A debate on a New International Economic Order (NIEO) was launched in the 1970s (c.f. Tinbergen, 1976)—and largely failed (c.f. Simonis, 1989). This paper shows that environmental policy could be a more effective lever for improving the lot of the developing countries; the near future may see the evolution of a new international environmental order which is likely to better link environmental protection and economic development.     

Too hot to handle: The effects of high temperatures during pregnancy on adult welfare outcomes

This paper studies the long-term effects of high temperatures during pregnancy on later-life outcomes for Chinese adults. Adults experienced one additional high-temperature day during in utero period, on average, attain 0.02 fewer years of schooling, increase the risk of illiteracy by 0.18%, achieve lower standardized word-test score by 0.48%, and are shorter by 0.02 cm. The impacts are greater in the first and second trimesters. Additionally, we find that income effects represent one important channel to explain the adverse effects of hot weather. Back-of-the-envelope predictions suggest that by the end of the 21st century, a 0.14–0.54 reduction in years of education and a 0.21–0.84 cm reduction in height is likely to result from climate change, ceteris paribus.     

近60年黄河流域典型区域气温突变与变暖停滞研究

以黄河流域典型区域-黄河流域内蒙古段为研究区,采用1951~2012年62年气温区域平均数据,应用M-K检验等方法对研究区区域平均最高气温、平均气温、平均最低气温突变前后变化及气温突变后变暖停滞特征进行了分析.结果表明：年（季）平均最低气温首先发生突变（1977~1987年）,平均气温次之（1978~1993年）,平均最高气温最晚（1978~1994年）,平均最高气温与平均气温秋、冬季发生突变时间一样;年内突变早晚顺序为冬季最早（1977~1978）,夏季最晚（1987~1994）.冬季比夏季、平均最高气温比平均最低气温变化更剧烈.平均最低气温（0.231~0.604℃/10a）对升温贡献较大.各类气温年（季）突变后在1997~2007年间先后发生变暖停滞现象,春季和冬季首先发生变暖停滞,秋季较晚,夏季未停滞,年气温最晚（2007年）,大部分年（季）气温要素变暖停滞晚于全球变暖停滞时间（1998年）.年际气温突变后到停滞前平均最高气温的升温速率相对最慢,而其停滞后降温速率反而最快,平均最低气温与其相反,初步说明平均最低气温对升温反应较为明显,平均最高气温对降温反应较为明显.季节中,突变后到气温停滞前,春季平均最高气温增长速率最快;气温停滞后,春季最低气温下降速率最快（-0.324℃/a¹）.     

稻麦作物净初级生产力模型研究:模型检验与情景预测

利用我国若干代表性区域98组稻麦作物生产力的试验数据,对所建立的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型进行了检验.结果表明,该模型能根据常规的气象和土壤资料、化肥施用量等数据资料较好地模拟我国主要区域稻麦作物的净初级生产力.模拟值(y)与观测值(x)的线性关系为:y=1.05p-16.8(r²=0.771,p<0.001,n=98).对南京地区的情景预测结果表明:大气CO₂浓度升高促进稻麦作物的固碳能力;气温升高会降低水稻和小麦的碳固定,但对小麦的影响要小于水稻;在当前情景及未来情景(CO₂浓度为540μmol·mol^-1,温度增加1～4℃)下,氮肥施用对小麦碳固定的促进作用大于水稻,氮肥施用量高于150 kg·hm^-2时对2种作物的碳固定没有显著的促进作用,甚至降低水稻的净初级生产力.     

Reduction of CO2 emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target

The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO₂ on a global scale. In a previous paper, the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here, this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO₂, for the period of 1996–2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004, and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%, relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are, however, relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently, controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO₂ concentration target.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

长江三角洲城市群人为热排放特征研究

基于常规可获取的能源、交通、人口等统计资料,利用“自上而下”的能源清单法,研究了2010年长江三角洲(以下简称“长三角”)城市群地区各类人为热排放量及其时空分布特征.结果表明:该地区人为热排放总量为1.4′1019J/a,其中工业、交通、建筑、新陈代谢分别占75.1%、12.5%、9.9%和2.5%.上海、苏州、无锡、杭州和南京五个城市的人为热排放总量约占研究区域总量的71%.长三角城市群的人为热年平均排放通量为5.3W/m2,大部分地区介于5~30W/m2,城市高值区一般介于20~70W/m2,上海明显高于其他城市.为方便有关环境气候模式的输入,本文提供了人为热排放的网格化空间分布和简单的时间变化廓线.     

Characterization of chemical species in universal sampler (PM2.5 and PM2.5–10) aerosols in suburban area of central Taiwan

Aerosol samples of particulate and chemical species for PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm) collected by Universal sampler were studied from June to August 1998 in the suburban area of central Taiwan. The ratios of PM_2.5/PM_2.5–10 displayed that the fine particles (particle size < 2.5 μm) are prevailing in the suburban site. Ion Chromatography was used to analyze for the water‐soluble ions: sulphate and nitrate in the Universal samples. Also, the collected samples were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry for the elemental analysis of Ca, Fe, Pb, Cu and Cr. The results indicated that the crustal elements (Ca and Fe) and resuspended matters were dominated in the coarse particulate mode while the anthropogenic elements (Cr, Pb, Cu) and sulphate components are mainly in the fine particle fraction. The results also showed that the sulphate and nitrate make the largest portion of the chemical species collected by Universal sampler (PMio). The concentrations of heavy metals in THU are generally high, owing to the higher motor vehicle and industrial density nearby. The degree of pollution from this source differs from day to day, depending on the motor vehicle density.