Carbon benefits from Amazonian forest reserves: leakage accounting and the value of time

Amazonian forest reserves have significant carbon benefits, but the methodology used for accounting for these benefits will be critical in determining whether the powerful economic force represented by mitigation efforts to slow global warming will be applied to creating these reserves. Opportunities for reserve creation are quickly being lost as new areas are opened to deforestation though highway construction and other developments. Leakage, or the effects that a reserve or other mitigation project provokes outside of the project boundaries, is critical to a proper accounting of net carbon benefits. Protected areas in the Amazon have particularly great potential mitigation benefits over an extended time horizon. Over a 100-year time frame, virtually no unprotected forest is likely to remain, meaning that potential leakages (both leakage to the vicinity of the reserves and that displaced by removing protected areas from the land-grabbing market) should not matter much because any short-term leakage would be “recovered” eventually. The effect of the value attributed to time greatly influences the impact of leakage on benefits credited to reserves. Simple assumptions regarding leakage scenarios illustrate the benefits of reserves and the critical areas where agreement is necessary to make this option a practical component of mitigation efforts. The stakes are too high to allow further delays in reaching agreement on these issues.     

论节能减排与低碳经济

根据低碳经济理论,结合我国现状,分析了我国实施低碳经济转型的优势和挑战。指出节能减排对发展低碳经济的意义,包括节约能源是实现低碳经济的重要手段和污染减排与减缓温室气体排放之间具有协同效应。提出了优化产业结构,发展循环经济,开展清洁生产,加快技术创新,鼓励绿色消费,积极开发可再生替代能源,优化能源结构,增加碳汇能力等具体措施建议。     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought effects on leaf gas exchange properties of barley

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) is rising, predicted to cause global warming, and alter precipitation patterns. During 1994, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Alexis) was grown in a strip-split-plot experimental design to determine the effects that the main plot C_a treatments [A: Ambient at 370 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹; E: Enriched with free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) at ∼550 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹] had on several gas exchange properties of fully expanded sunlit primary leaves. The interacting strip-split-plot irrigation treatments were Dry or Wet [50% (D) or 100% (W) replacement of potential evapotranspiration] at ample nitrogen (261 kg N ha⁻¹) and phosphorous (29 kg P ha⁻¹) fertility. Elevated C_a facilitated drought avoidance by reducing stomatal conductance (g_s) by 34% that conserved water and enabled stomata to remain open for a longer period into a drought. This resulted in a 28% reduction in drought-induced midafternoon depression in net assimilation rate (A). Elevated C_a increased A by 37% under Dry and 23% under Wet. Any reduction in A under Wet conditions occurred because of nonstomatal limitations, whereas under Dry it occurred because of stomatal limitations. Elevated C_a increased the diurnal integral of A (A′) that resulted in an increase in the seasonal-long integral of A′ (A″) for barley leaves by 12% (P = 0.14) under both Dry and Wet - 650, 730, 905 and 1020 ± 65 g (C) m⁻² y⁻¹ for AD, ED, AW and EW treatments, respectively. Elevated C_a increased season-long average dry weight (DW_S; crown, shoots) by 14% (P = 0.02), whereas deficit irrigation reduced DW_S by 7% (P = 0.06), although these values may have been affected by a short but severe pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)] infestation. Hence, an elevated-C_a-based improvement in gas exchange properties enhanced growth of a barley crop.     

降雨径流连续模拟参数全局灵敏性分析

长期连续模拟是客观评价城市排水系统性能、雨洪控制措施效果的重要方法之一.运用普适似然度法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation,简称GLUE),综合分析了暴雨管理模型(Storm Water Management Model,简称SWMM)在不同间隔降雨情景下的水量...     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对“适应气候变化”却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。文章在前文“发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖”减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

全球人口与粮食的空间错位演变及影响因素分析

基于重心模型和空间错位指数方法,系统分析了1990—2017年全球人口与粮食的时空格局、空间错位特征及影响因素等。结果表明：（1）近30年来,全球人口与粮食均呈增长态势,两者的时序变化特征存在明显差异,全球人均粮食产量的区域差异特征显著,多数国家的“人粮关系”矛盾突出。（2）在全球尺度,人口与粮食重心存在显著的空间错位特征,两者在空间分布上呈现反向错位发展的态势。（3）在国家尺度,人口与粮食的空间错位格局呈现由南至北依次为“正错位区—负错位区—正错位区”。负向高错位区稳定在印度、日本等国家,正向高错位区稳定在美国、加拿大等国家。（4）全球各大洲人口与粮食的空间错位格局基本稳定,空间错位指数发生转向的国家分布在亚洲、欧洲、南美洲和非洲。（5）自然环境、国际环境、农业发展、社会环境等多种因素综合作用致使人口规模和粮食产量在空间分布上存在区域差异,促成全球人口与粮食的空间错位格局。政策启示：中国有必要加快农业供给侧结构性改革,增强农业竞争力和粮食自给率,合理统筹配置两种资源和处理两个市场之间的关系,建立规避世界粮食贸易波动和不确定性风险的应对策略,构建中国农业生态安全和粮食安全的保障体系。     

全球粮食贸易网络格局及其影响因素

基于复杂网络分析方法,构建了小麦、水稻、玉米三大主粮的全球粮食贸易网络,解析了网络格局的总体特征及其变化态势,定量评估了全球粮食贸易网络格局影响因素。研究发现：全球粮食贸易已经成为一个复杂有序、相互依赖的网络系统,网络规模不断增加,连同性和紧密度不断加强;全球粮食贸易网络节点呈现非均衡结构特征,高强度和高节点度国家在网络中具有主导作用,呈现出口国主导的网络结构特征;经济社会发展差异性、贸易政策的一致性和语言文化邻近性对粮食贸易网络影响显著,经济社会发展差异推动贸易网络联系更加紧密且多元化,贸易政策的一致性促进贸易网络更加持续和稳健。建议中国继续实施更加多元化、多边化的粮食贸易政策,提升中国在世界粮食网络节点的中心性特征,充分利用国内国际两个市场,融入全球粮食贸易网络体系,积极推动构建全球粮食安全命运共同体。     

“参与式”教学模式在公共体育课准备活动中的应用研究

通过文献资料法及教学实践经验,对中国环境管理干部学院准备活动中的"参与式"教学模式进行了探讨与总结,提出了准备活动中"参与式"教学模式运用的意义、实施方法和策略,并认为教师充分发挥其指导、反馈和评价作用是"参与式"教学模式有效开展的有力保证。     

巢湖沉积物中磷蓄积时空变化及人为污染定量评价

研究了巢湖表层沉积物及西部湖心区沉积岩芯中总磷(TP)及NaOH提取态磷(NaOH-P)、HCl提取态磷(HCl-P)、有机磷(OP)含量变化,揭示了沉积物中磷的人为污染贡献量时空变化特征.1850年以来,西部湖心区沉积岩芯中TP呈明显的3段式变化,1850～1950年,TP含量较为稳定;1950～1980年,TP含量逐渐增加;1980年以来,TP含量达到近150年来的最大值,平均为858.3 mg.kg-1.沉积岩芯中NaOH-P及OP含量变化趋势与TP一致,但NaOH-P所占TP质量分数在上述3个阶段中逐渐增加,OP所占TP质量分数相对稳定;沉积岩芯中HCl-P含量较为稳定,所占TP质量分数逐段降低.表层沉积物中NaOH-P与TP含量空间变化规律一致,总体上为西部湖区>东部湖区,北部湖区>南部湖区.采用地球化学方法对沉积物中磷含量"粒度效应"进行矫正,计算得到1850年以来上述3个阶段沉积岩芯中磷的人为污染贡献量平均分别为59.5、118.8、297.9 mg.kg-1;表层沉积物中磷的人为污染贡献量为22.9～2 500.0 mg.kg-1,由西北部湖区向东南部湖区递减,与水体TP质量浓度变化趋势完全一致.人为污染贡献的磷主要以NaOH-P结合态蓄积于巢湖沉积物中.除了农业面源污染之外,通过南淝河输入的来自合肥等城市废水是西部湖区磷污染的主要"贡献者".     

长江三角洲2018年土壤NO排放特征

土壤是大气一氧化氮（NO）重要的来源之一,在大气化学中起着重要的作用.基于最新的BDSNP算法构建长三角地区2018年土壤NO排放清单,并进一步分析其时空特征和不确定性.结果表明,长三角地区2018年土壤NO排放量为213.6 kt,占人为源NO_x排放总量的7.3%,排放高值区主要集中在安徽省北部和江苏省大部分地区.从月变化来看,土壤NO排放在6月达到峰值,占全年排放的19.9%,占6月人为源NO_x排放量的19.7%;从小时变化来看,土壤NO排放在16:00点达到峰值,占全天的5.5%.土壤NO排放包括土壤本底、氮肥施用和氮沉降这3个部分;氮肥施用是土壤NO排放的主要来源,占比高达77.8%.随着机动车和工业等NO_x排放的深入减排,土壤NO排放的重要性将日益凸显.