可持续发展中合理人口规模的研究：以苏南地区集镇为例

本文在分析农业人口转移数量、经济效益、社会商品销售额、集镇容纳能力的基础上,研究了集镇合理人口规模的界线。     

Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?

The current world population is 6 billion people. Even if we adopted a worldwide policy resulting in only 2.1 children born per couple, more than 60 years would pass before the world population stabilized at approximately 12 billion. The reason stabilization would take more than 60 years is the population momentum – the young age distribution – of the world population. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. At present, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished; grain production per capita has been declining since 1983; irrigation per capita has declined 12% during the past decade; cropland per capita has declined 20% during the past decade; fish production per capita has declined 7% during the past decade; per capita fertilizer supplies essential for food production have declined 23% during the past decade; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases. Clearly, human numbers cannot continue to increase.     

乡镇工业企业发展与环境,资源协调问题初探

我国乡镇工业企业的发展与环境、资源的协调问题已经成为我国发展与环境、资源关系方面的大问题。实行工农相对分离,组建乡村工业区,是提高乡镇工业企业素质、效益,强化乡镇工业企业优化组合、规模经营的有效途径;是保护环境,实现资源有效利用的基础工作之一;是提高农业劳动生产率,实现农业规模经营的基础工作之一。     

中国经济实现持续增长面临的城市化滞后的挑战

我国人口城镇化滞后的根本原因在于计划经济体制下形成的二元经济结构和城乡隔离的户籍管理制度没有在工业化进程和市场经济体制建立进程中予以破除。而城镇化的滞后将给我国经济实现持续增长带来诸多挑战，包括有效需求不足、农业生产率低下、产业结构难以升级等。文章特别阐明通过包括户籍制度、就业制度和土地承包制度在内的制度创新，加快人口城镇化的步伐，促进经济持续稳定的增长。     

关于中国土地资源人口承载力问题的思考

土地资源的人口承载力问题也就是生存空间问题,它关系到人类未来的生存与发展问题,历来受学术界的注目。20世纪70年代联合国粮农组织(FAO)曾主持了一项大型的发展中地区土地资源人口承载力问题的研究,80年代后期,中国科学院—国家计委自然资源综合考察委员会也主持了一项大型的中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究。相应地还有一系列有关中国未来的生存与发展和人口承载力问题的探讨。本文从中国人地关系变化的角度介入这一讨论,分析中国远期的土地资源是否超载的问题。     

上海人口自然变动负增长与社会经济发展

1993年上海人口自然变动在全国率先进入负增长,自然增长率为-0.78‰,并将持续一个较长的时期。这是长期以来本市经济和社会发展以及计划生育工作共同作用的必然结果,其中计划生育政策的成功推行起着重要的作用。上海除了继续控制人口增长的数量外,还要调节人口规模和人口结构,大力提高人口素质,不断使人口与社会经济发展、生态平衡、资源利用等方面达到协调发展。由负增长引发的劳动力短缺和老龄化程度加剧要采取相应的对策。     

Acute and chronic effects of clofibrate and clofibric acid on the enzymes acetylcholinesterase, lactate dehydrogenase and catalase of the mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki

The objective of this study was to investigate both acute and chronic effects of clofibrate and clofibric acid on the enzymes acetylcholinesterase (AChE), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and catalase (CAT) of the mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). AChE, commonly used as a biomarker of neurotoxicity, was determined in the total head. LDH, an important enzyme of anaerobic metabolism, was quantified in dorsal muscle, and CAT, enzyme which has been used as indicative parameter of peroxisome proliferation, was determined in the liver. Furthermore, alterations of body and liver weight were also determined, through the calculation of the ratios final body weight/initial body weight, liver weight/final body weight, liver weight/gills weight and liver weight/head weight. Acute exposure of G. holbrooki to both clofibrate and clofibric acid induced a decrease in liver CAT activity, an increase in muscle LDH activity, while no effects were observed on AChE activity. However, chronic exposure did not alter significantly the enzymatic activities, suggesting reduced or null effects over these pathways, relative to effects reported in other species. No effects were observed for the calculated ratios, except a significant weight reduction for males chronically exposed to clofibrate.     

Food and hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is by far and away the most disadvantaged of the world's three main developing regions. Worse, its situation has mostly been deteriorating for much of the past several decades. Its agriculture is severely under-productive, and per capita food supplies have been steadily dwindling. Its environments and natural-resource base, characterised by water deficits, soil erosion, fuelwood shortages, rudimentary agro-practices, and grossly inadequate infrastructure, are generally unfavourable for sustainable agriculture. The population has expanded until it far exceeds carrying capacity, yet its growth rate is the highest in the world. The region also suffers from more disease than any other region. There is widespread and deepening poverty. As a result of these and other problems, and despite major food imports, two-thirds of the people are malnourished, one-quarter of whom endure outright hunger, even semi-starvation. Both these proportions appear set to keep on increasing both relatively and absolutely. Were these problems to persist with their decades-long trends, there could eventually arrive a stage when much larger numbers of people would succumb to terminal malnutrition, precipitating a human tragedy of unprecedented proportions. Fortunately, success stories demonstrate that solutions are available, on the part of both governments concerned and international agencies. Because of ignorance, or rather ignore-ance of the potential mortality disaster ahead, however, not nearly enough has been done to address the challenge with the energy and urgency to match its scale.     

Effective Planning and Implementation of Ecological Rehabilitation Projects: A Case Study of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo (Ontario, Canada)

The literature guides environmental planning and, specifically, how to use ecological rehabilitation projects to achieve long-term planning goals and landscape-scale environmental sustainability. There is, however, a perceived gap between principles in the literature and the use of them by practitioners involved in smaller-scale ecological rehabilitation projects. Using interviews with practitioners involved in 11 projects within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, we tested whether practitioners used five principles for effective planning and implementation of ecological rehabilitation that we derived from the literature. These five principles were: establishing political and ecological context, using ecologically appropriate objectives and practices, using comparative multidisciplinary and cross-scale approaches, using adaptive planning and implementation, and establishing good communication within and external to projects. Few projects followed all five principles, and practitioners indicated that they used three more project-specific principles: obtaining political/social support, promoting projects and changing attitudes about projects, and securing sufficient and persistent funding to maintain a project's life. While the literature emphasizes that ecological rehabilitation is only effective if projects are coordinated on a watershed basis, most practitioners focused solely on the goals of their specific project. The gap between literature and practice may arise because most practitioners are new to the field of ecological rehabilitation and still are focused on the methods involved. Time pressures force practitioners to obviate the literature and get projects started quickly, lest support evaporate. Complicating these difficulties is decreased support from federal and provincial governments for large-scale environmental planning. It is unclear whether ecological rehabilitation projects in Waterloo Region (at least) will ever become effective at promoting landscape-scale ecological goals or remain smaller-scale stop-gaps.