Estimation of the maximal population frequency of “alien” biotypes taking into account a priori data

A method is described for calculating the probability that the percentage of alien biotypes is higher than a specified threshold (e.g., 5%) in a population in which a certain number of alien biotypes has been found preliminarily. The method is based on the Bayesian approach; it assumes that the researcher has preliminary (a priori) information on the frequency of these biotypes. This a priori information makes it possible to estimate the aforementioned probability more accurately than is possible with the use of the standard binomial estimation. The method is illustrated by the results of the estimation of cultivar purity in batches of stock and foundation seeds of spring barley with the use of protein markers.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 106–109.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Zhivotovsky, Pomortsev, Lyalina, Kalabushkin, Pukhalskii.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

我国人口问题与社会持续发展

本文分析了我国人口的主要特点和人口问题，指出人口问题已成为我国社会、经济发展的重要制约因素，进而论述了人口与资源、环境、经济协调发展的基本原理和宏观对策     

控制人口 保护资源 为子孙留下蓝天碧水绿地

建国40多年来,淄博市的国民经济和社会事业迅速发展,已经成为一个以重工业为主体的重要工业城市。同时,随着经济规模的迅速扩大,人口、资源与环境三大问题越来越突出。面对这样的市情,淄博市采取各种措施,突出重点,集中力量主攻薄弱环节,严格控制人口增长,保护资源,综合整治污染,取得了很大成效,初步走上了经济和社会事业与人口、资源、环境协调发展的轨道。     

水资源量与城市人口规模

城市发展与水资源息息相关。为保证城市规模的合理性,应综合考虑城市的水资源储量。通过城市水资源量估算城市人口规模的方法,以广西钦州水源工程为例,从钦州现有的几个水资源量分析钦州城市可能达到的人口规模,说明城市水资源是影响城市发展规模的主要因素之一。     

基于尺寸效应的采空区危险度RS-TOPSIS法辨识

为准确预测地下采空区危险性,选用采空区结构的跨度、暴露面积、高度、埋深、矿柱尺寸布置等5个采空区危险度结构尺寸影响因素作为评价指标,建立采空区危险度粗糙集-逼近理想解排序法(RS-TOPSIS)综合评价体系。基于粗糙集理论(RS)中的粗糙依赖度,通过计算评价指标与评价等级间的粗糙依赖度得到指标权重。以40个采空区探测系统(CMS)实测采空区作为评价对象,根据单指标分类区间下限构造5个不同等级的典型采空区,结合逼近理想解的排序法(TOPSIS),实现采空区危险度5级贴近度的分类,并辨识实测采空区危险度。研究结果表明,用为采空区群矿山建立的采空区危险度基于结构尺寸效应的RS-TOPSIS法,能够实现危险度5级分类辨识,辨识结果与采空区危险度数值分析结果吻合度为92.5%。     

絮凝剂用壳聚糖的中试生产研究

在实验室制备絮凝剂用壳聚糖的基础上,按工业化生产的要求对壳聚糖进行了中试生产研究.经正交试验确定了生产过程中脱钙、脱蛋白、脱乙酰等3步反应的最佳工艺参数. 由此中试工艺生产的壳聚糖的生产成本比国内同类产品下降了22%,生产周期缩短了66%,且主要性能指标均达到或超过国内外同类产品的水平.     

Perceived changes in well-being and happiness with gardening in urban organic allotments in Portugal

Urban allotment gardens (AG) in Portugal have increased in recent years, as in many other European countries and worldwide. The contribution of these gardens to the happiness and well-being of urban populations has been recognized, but evaluations of their benefits are still very scarce. The objective of this study was to evaluate this contribution, based on the urban organic AG of the Devesa Park in Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal. The sample included 65 gardeners who completed the self-administered questionnaires of Bem-Estar Pessoal (personal well-being scale), Felicidade Subjetiva (subjective happiness scale) and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents were mainly adults under 65 years, married and academically well qualified and about half of them had a professional activity, with nearly one third being retired. They considered themselves happy with their life (Personal Well-being Index = 74.5%) and revealed an optimistic and positive attitude towards life, regardless of economic or social difficulties. The increased frequency of visits for gardening was positively related to a greater perception of subjective happiness. The gardeners who visited the AG more frequently considered themselves happier from a self-perspective and in comparison with peers. It can be suggested that urban organic AG represent a means for enhancing citizen well-being, contributing positively to their feelings of happiness and life satisfaction, changing behaviours and developing personal capacities. Beyond economic measures, urban AG can be recommended to capture the well-being of societies.     

Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.