胶带运输巷水幕抑制火灾烟气效率影响因素实验研究

针对胶带运输巷火灾时期有毒烟气蔓延严重威胁工作人员的生命安全问题,提出利用水幕阻烟法抑制火灾烟气传播,搭建小尺寸实验台研究水幕对矿井巷道火灾烟气的阻挡效果。通过分析火灾烟气的运移规律,测量温度分布、非水溶性火灾烟气体积分数的变化,检验矿井运输巷内设置水幕阻烟的有效性。实验结果表明:水幕开启后,其下游空间烟气体积分数降低,能够有效阻止火灾烟气的扩散;水幕远离烟气源、增加水幕层数、水幕向上喷射、喷头压力增大均能够提高水幕的阻烟效果。实验为矿井巷道等地下建筑的防排烟设计提供了思路,对火灾的救援与人员的疏散具有重要意义。     

Urban and rural transport of semivolatile organic compounds at regional scale: A multimedia model approach

Urban areas are generally regarded as major sources of some semivolatile organic compounds and other persistent organic pollutants(POPs) to the surrounding regions. Huge differences in contaminant emissions between urban and rural areas directly affect their fate in environmental media. Little is known about POPs behavior between urban and rural areas at a regional scale. A spatially resolved Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural Fate Model(BETR-UR) was designed by coupling land cover information to simulate the transport of POPs between urban and rural areas, and the Bohai Rim was used as a case study to estimate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon(PAH) fate. The processes of contaminant fate including emission, inter-compartmental transfer, advection and degradation in urban and rural areas were simulated in the model. Simulated PAH concentrations in environmental media of urban and rural areas were very close to measured values. The model accuracy was highly improved, with the average absolute relative error for PAH concentrations reduced from 37% to 3% compared with unimproved model results. PAH concentrations in urban soil and air were considerably higher than those in rural areas. Sensitivity analysis showed temperature was the most influential parameter for Phen rather than for Bap, whose fate was more influenced by emission rate, compartment dimension, transport velocity and chemical persistence. Uncertainty analysis indicated modeled results in urban media had higher uncertainty than those in rural areas due to larger variations of emissions in urban areas. The differences in urban and rural areas provided us with valuable guidance on policy setting for urban–rural POP control.     

Zn2+和Cd2+对萼花臂尾轮虫种群增长的单一和联合毒性效应

为探究Zn2+和Cd2+对轮虫种群增长的单一和联合毒性效应,在不同温度(15、20和25 ℃)和斜生栅藻(Scenedesmus obliquus)不同密度(0.5×106、1.0×106和2.0×106 mL-1)下,以萼花臂尾轮虫(Brachionus calyciflorus)为受试生物,采用3 d种群累积培养方法,研究了不同 Zn2+污染处理组〔ρ(Zn2+)分别为0.315、0.630和1.260 mg/L〕、Cd2+污染处理组〔ρ(Cd2+)分别为0.073、0.145和0.289 mg/L〕、Zn2+-Cd2+复合污染处理组〔ρ(Zn2+)、ρ(Cd2+)分别为0.315、0.073 mg/L,0.630、0.145 mg/L和1.260、0.289 mg/L〕 对轮虫种群增长率和混交雌体百分率的影响. 结果表明:当藻密度为0.5×106和2.0×106 mL-1时,与对照组相比,随着温度上升,对轮虫种群增长率产生抑制作用的处理组数明显增加,高温(25 ℃)下,所有处理组均显著降低轮虫种群增长率. 15和20 ℃下,与较低、中等藻密度(0.5×106、1.0×106 mL-1)相比,较高藻密度(2.0×106 mL-1)下轮虫种群受到毒性影响的处理组数明显减少;25 ℃下,各处理组轮虫种群增长率均随藻密度的升高而增加. 在温度为15和20 ℃、藻密度为0.5×106 mL-1条件下,Zn2+-Cd2+复合污染处理〔当ρ(Zn2+)、ρ(Cd2+)分别为1.260、0.289 mg/L时〕的轮虫种群增长率明显低于ρ(Zn2+)为1.260 mg/L和ρ(Cd2+)为0.289 mg/L时的轮虫种群增长率;温度为25 ℃、藻密度为2.0×106 mL-1条件下,Zn2+-Cd2+复合污染处理〔当ρ(Zn2+)、ρ(Cd2+)分别为0.630、0.145 mg/L时〕的轮虫种群增长率明显低于ρ(Zn2+)为0.630 mg/L和ρ(Cd2+)为0.145 mg/L时的轮虫种群增长率. 研究显示,温度、藻密度和重金属质量浓度之间的交互作用对轮虫种群增长率的影响大于其对混交雌体百分率的影响,随着温度的升高和藻密度的降低,Zn2+、Cd2+对轮虫的单一和联合毒性效应增加.      

管制员认知偏差测评量表的编制与应用

利用信息加工模型,结合管制工作的特殊性,编制出管制员认知偏差测评量表。利用该量表对管制员认知偏差进行测量,结果表明管制员管制过程中存在较大的认知偏差;不同性别及年龄的管制员在认知偏差方面存在显著差异。     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Towards Real‐Time Continental Scale Streamflow Simulation in Continuous and Discrete Space

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF‐Hydro framework, initialized on a 3‐km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real‐time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three‐month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias ≤ |25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias ≤ |25%| and NSE ≥ 0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE ≥ 0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE ≥ 0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.     

The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery

Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life‐history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life‐history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards “faster” life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3–40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra‐ and inter‐specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life‐history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi‐species context, where both age‐specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life‐history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.