基于TRMM订正数据的横断山区降水时空分布特征

鉴于高时空变异地区降水观测的需求,论文提出了基于ISODATA动态聚类法和最大似然法分区逐月回归的TRMM数据订正方法,并以横断山区为例,利用地基台站降水数据对1998-2012 年的TRMM 3B43 V7 数据进行了实验研究,并探讨了过去15 a 横断山区的降水时空分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明,TRMM 3B43 V7 数据在横断山区的总体精度较高,单站精度较低。订正后的TRMM 3B43 数据,与实测值偏差大为减少,降水相对偏差大于10%的站点由原始数据的16 个(42.1%)减少为7 个(18.4%),有81.6%的站点年降水量相对偏差小于10%,且相对偏差大于等于20%的站点仅3 个,能够基本满足横断山区降水时空分布特征研究的精度需要,有效地弥补了有限站点观测的不足。研究区内年降水量从东南向西北递减,与东亚季风在该区域的走向一致;1998-2012 年横断山区的降水量主要呈减少趋势,减少地区主要分布在南部以及中西部地区。夏季降水减少趋势最为突出,秋季次之,冬春变化趋势不明显。横断山区大部分区域的降水量与东亚夏季风指数正相关,与东亚冬季风指数负相关;最近15 a,研究区东亚季风指数持续变小,恰好与研究结果中的降水减少趋势一致。     

生命周期评价数据库分析与建模

基于关系数据库和面向对象程序设计理论建立了生命周期评价数据库系统。通过综合分析生命周期评价数据，根据生命周期评价数据的数据类型，将数据分为产品评价数据、产品档案数据、基础材料数据和影响评价基础数据，相应的设计了4个数据库。运用关系数据库理论分别对4个数据库建立了物理结构模型。     

The BG Measurement System for Hazardous Substances (BGMG) and the Exposure Database of Hazardous Substances (MEGA)

German employers ‘ liability insurance associations or Berufsgenossenschaften (BGs)—institutions for statutoryaccident insurance—maintain a measurement system for hazardous substances, the so-called BGMG. The aimof the BGMG is to determine and document valid results of measurements of exposure primarily for preventionpurposes. The data are collected systematically, in parallel to the sampling in a company. Parameters which aresupposed to have a visible effect on exposure levels are documented. The MEGA database (documentation ofmeasurement data relating to workplace exposure to hazardous substances) holds 1,629 million measurementvalues, which have been compiled in since 1972. The database offers a host of selection possibilities forassessments depending on the evaluation strategy.     

安全生产大数据的5W2H采集法及其模式研究

为从安全生产大数据中挖掘安全规律并最终提炼安全生产基础原理,首先在对安全生产大数据的定义及其内涵进一步阐释基础上,提出安全生产大数据采集的定义,并将其分解为3个过程;然后提出安全生产大数据的5W2H采集法,并对其内涵(采集原因,使用主体、采集者及采集对象,采集数据类型,采集边界,采集时间,采集数据量及其采集方法）进行详细分析;最后以思维路径为主、过程路径和技术路径为辅,建立安全生产大数据采集的一般模式。结果表明,安全生产大数据采集模式的研究可为安全生产大数据的存储、处理及其应用提供基础。     

基于数据挖掘技术的事故隐患预警方法研究

为改良企业既有隐患排查治理方法,提高辨识效率,提升整改效果,应用并优化数据流滑动窗口模型、等价类变化算法、变化挖掘算法等数据挖掘技术,构建1种关联隐患预警方法,该方法以企业历史隐患数据为基础,通过挖掘实时隐患数据的关联规则,发布关联隐患的类型、存在可能性和变化模式等预警信息,指导企业进行针对性排查和整改。最后,以72家安全管理性质相似企业的28 957项隐患数据为例,验证该方法可行性。研究结果表明:该方法不但能挖掘关联隐患类型及其变化模式,而且预警准确率随置信度水平提升而不断提高。     

基于数据挖掘的施工危险识别注意投入与分配研究*

为分析施工情境中危险识别注意资源动态投入分配规律,基于动态时间规整算法,挖掘危险识别注视轨迹序列,以表征注意资源投入分配变化,并采用k-means聚类、注视熵、Needleman-Wunsch全局序列对齐算法和统计等方法,深入挖掘注意资源在危险目标中投入和分配等时空变化规律。研究结果表明:当事人危险识别各阶段注意资源呈现从显著目标到高危目标的投入变化趋势,危险识别注意资源分配随情境复杂因素呈现零散、均匀的空间特征,分配无序程度提高。     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

一种利用AIS数据计算受限水域内航标安全距离的方法

AIS数据详细记录了特定水域的船舶位置、船首向和尺寸等数据,可用于计算受限水域内航标安全距离。按一定标准网格化目标航标附近水域,统计周围航行的他船船体出现在每一个网格中的频数,形成他船航迹的网格频数图。按长度尺寸分类,将同类他船航迹网格频数图叠加,形成特定类型船舶的航迹网格频数图。按频数大小填充颜色,可清晰地显示航标附近他船安全通行状态下与航标保持的距离。实验选取上海港航标附近水域海量AIS数据,获取了60~79m,80~99m,100~129m,130~159m船舶航迹形成的网格频数图,结果显示,四类船舶距航标的安全距离随着他船长度的增大而增加,分别为50m,70m,110m,150m。     

基于随机森林的飞机长着陆预警方法

为降低飞机冲出跑道事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以长着陆事件为研究对象,探讨1种有效的长着陆事件预警方法。提出应用随机森林模型对长着陆事件进行预警,给出模型的特征筛选、构建及评价方法,并使用实际飞行数据验证模型有效性。结果表明:基于随机森林的飞机长着陆预警模型精确率为88.41%,召回率为87.14%,模型可以有效对长着陆事件进行预警。     

温压装药安全性分析及数据管理系统

温压炸药作为一种较新型的武器弹药,学界对其研究主要集中在弹药性能和毁伤效果的提高上,缺乏对温压炸药装药安全性的分析.温压炸药装药又是一项极具危险性的作业工艺,本文针对温压武器装药系统,采用事故树分析方法对温压装药进行危险性分析,提出温压装药火灾爆炸安全模式,之后由反应温压武器及其制品的危险性能和用于对其生产、储运系统进行安全评价数学模型出发,编程建立了一个实用、系统的温压武器装药安全数据管理信息系统,为温压武器生产企业的实际装药安全生产管理、危险控制,提供一定的理论依据与数据支持.