中国臭氧污染的空间分布和健康效应

基于2017年全国1365个监测站点的实时监测数据，运用空间数据统计模型揭示近地面臭氧（O₃）污染的时空分布格局，并利用BenMap工具在10km×10km空间网格尺度上估计O₃污染的健康损失和健康经济价值.结果表明，O₃浓度具有较强的季节性变化，呈倒"V"型变化趋势，在空间分布上呈现明显的集聚性，即高值或低值区域集中分布，具有较强的空间正相关性；通过O₃暴露系数模拟人群室内、室外O₃暴露情况，在统计意义上估计得到2017年O₃污染共计造成我国全因早逝人数98473例（95%置信区间：53419~143292），其中心血管疾病早逝风险约占45%，以不同学者估算得到的单位统计生命价值为基础，估计得到的健康经济损失在197~978亿元之间，约占2017年全国GDP的0.05%~0.26%.     

Patchy Distribution Fields: An Interleaved Survey Design and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to compare the effects of a regular (one-pass) or interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches of different shapes and spatial orientations, and a set of parallel or zigzag transects forming a regular or interleaved acoustic survey. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations. Regarding the immovable fields, the efficiency of a regular or interleaved acoustic survey was tested with the following two alternative assumptions: (1) the entire survey was completed; (2) the survey was interrupted for some reason at the moment when one transect remained non-accomplished. In the former case, the efficiencies of both acoustic surveys were nearly the same; in the latter case, the efficiency of an interleaved survey was superior to that of a regular one. With respect to movable fields, the efficiency of the completed interleaved surveys was even higher than that of the regular ones. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

中国居民直接生活能源消费碳排放区域差异及影响因素分析

基于2003-2015年中国30个省份的居民直接生活能耗碳排放数据,利用空间自相关分析其空间格局变化,并利用地理加权回归模型分析了居民消费所产生的二氧化碳排放影响因素。结果表明,中国省域的碳排放空间依赖作用较为显著;居民消费水平、居民直接生活能耗碳排放强度、劳动年龄人口比重对居民人均直接生活能耗碳排放量的增加具有促进作用;家庭规模对人均碳排放的影响呈现较强的负向抑制作用。中国经济发展的区域不平衡在碳排放方面凸显为居民直接生活能源消费碳排放的差异,并在集聚格局上表现出多种类型。     

贵州省县域废水排放与社会经济发展的相关分析

随着社会经济的加速发展，废水排放量也在不断的增加，使得环境质量大大降低，从而反作用于社会经济发展，影响社会经济的可持续发展。对于一个欠发达地区而言，协调社会经济与环境保护之间的关系至关重要。以贵州省2005、2010年88个县级面板数据为依据，利用空间计量方法，探究影响废水排放量的主要因子，建立贵州省废水排放量变化的经典线性回归模型和空间滞后模型，结果显示，第三产业的发展是导致贵州废水排放量增加的主要原因。     

基于CLUE-S模型的黑河中游土地利用情景模拟研究 ——以张掖市甘州区为例

由于传统的土地利用空间统计分析问题中存在固有的空间自相关效应,进而影响到不同土地利用类型空间分布概率模拟的精度.研究在CLUE-S模型中传统的二值Logistics回归的基础之上引入了空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,并将其用于区域土地利用情景模拟.结果表明:(1)考虑了土地利用类型空间自相关性的Autologistic回归模型在模拟土地利用空间格局时能更好地反映真实土地利用分布格局.耕地、林地、草地、水域及未利用地的空间格局拟合优度ROC值分别从0.914、0.820、0.697、0.635和0.798提高到0.924、0.892、0.766、0.716和0.835;(2)基于Autologistic回归分析的建模对CLUE-S模型的模拟精度有一定的提高.Autologistic回归分析下模拟结果的Kappa指数0.935 4大于Logistic回归模拟结果0.888 0;(3)通过模拟2020年研究区5种情景方案下土地利用格局,表明在不同情景方案下的土地利用/覆被格局存在显著的空间差异:①自然增长情景方案下,耕地的增加对于保障粮食安全有重要意义,而建设用地的扩张则会促进研究区经济建设的快速发展,但林地和草地转化为未利用地会加剧土地的退化和生态环境的恶化;②在3种水资源约束情景方案下,水资源对干旱区土地利用/覆被变化的制约非常明显,提高水资源利用率是改善干旱区生态环境的一个重要措施;③土地结构优化情景方案下土地利用比较全面地考虑到了流域粮食安全、生态保护以及经济发展等需要,具有较强的合理性;④经济发展情景方案下建设用地快速扩张,大量侵占周边耕地和草地,粮食安全会受到较大的威胁;⑤生态保护情景方案下林地、草地和水域等生态保护用地面积呈显著扩张,区域生态环境质量明显改善.     

陕西省人口分布的空间特征及其演变趋势

随着社会经济的不断发展,陕西省人口分布发生了明显变化.探究这种变化特征和趋势对协调区域人口的合理分布具有重要意义.采用空间自相关、人口结构指数、人口重心等研究方法,以陕西省97个县级行政区为研究单元、1990-2010年为研究区间,选取人口数和人口密度为研究对象,对陕西省人口分布的空间特征及其演变趋势进行了描述.结果表明,陕西省人口分布存在“中间高—南北低”的格局,人口密度空间分布呈正的空间相关性,人口集聚性较强.随着时间推移,集聚性趋势略有减弱,人口分布的不均衡性较显著,表现出上升趋势;人口重心向东北方向移动,移动速度有所加快.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Models for Multispecies Conservation Planning and Monitoring

Abstract: Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence–absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site‐level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence–absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad‐scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km² hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning.     

Developing an optimal sampling design. A case study in a coastal marine ecosystem

The development of a sampling design for optimisingsampling site locations collected from a coastalmarine environment has been the purpose of the presentwork; application of statistical analysis and spatialautocorrelation methods have been carried out. Thedataset included data collected from 34 sampling sitesspaced out in the Strait of Lesbos, Greece, arrangedin a 1×1 NM grid. The coastal shallow ecosystem wassubdivided into three zones, an inner one (7stations), a middle one (16 stations) and an offshorezone (11 stations). The standard error of thechlorophyll-a concentrations in each zone hasbeen used as the criterion for the sampling designoptimisation, resulting into reallocation of thesampling sites into the three zones. The positions ofthe reallocated stations have been assessed byestimation of the spatial heterogeneity and anisotropyof chlorophyll-a concentrations usingvariograms. Study of the variance of the initialdataset of the inner zone taking into account spatialheterogeneity, revealed two different sub-areas andtherefore, the number of the inner stations has beenreassessed. The proposed methodology eliminates thenumber of sampling sites and maximises the informationof spatial data from marine ecosystems. It isdescribed as a step-by-step procedure and could bewidely applied in sampling design concerning coastalpollution problems.     

PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: A method of predicting annual flows is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment. Statistical tests show the annual flow records to be stationary and aerially independent and can be adequately approximated by Gaussian distributions. Estimates are made of the Gaussian parameters for each subbasin. The spatial variations of these parameters are described by third order trend surfaces. The fitted surfaces can then be used to predict parameters of ungaged basins using the latitude and longitude of the basin centroids. The predicted parametric values are substituted into the Gaussian distribution to generate flows of various return periods.     

PROBLEMS AND METHODS INVOLVED IN RELATING LAND USE TO GROUND-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Efforts to relate shallow ground-water quality to the land use near a well lead to several statistical difficulties. These include potential uncertainty in land-use categorical data due to misclassification, data closure, distributional skewing, and spatial autocorrelation. Methods of addressing these problems are, respectively, the establishment of limits on minimum buffer radius, the estimation of contrasts, rank-based tests of association, and sub-sampling to prevent buffer overlap. Relations between the presence of purgeable organic compounds in ground water and land use are used to illustrate these problems and methods.