威布尔分布环境折合因子计算及其应用研究

目的对不同环境条件试验下的数据进行融合。方法针对应用最为普遍的威布尔分布类型的环境折合因子进行研究,给出威布尔分布环境折合因子的定义,根据极大似然估计法对威布尔分布环境折合因子进行计算。结果得出了相关环境折合因子的计算结果,在此基础上给出了应用环境折合因子进行数据融合的方法和步骤。结论应用威布尔分布环境折合因子可以合理的对不同环境下试验数据进行融合,达到扩大试验样本的目的。     

基于DEA-Malmquist指数的山东省生态效率评价研究

以2004牟-2012年面板数据为样本,运用DAE和Malmquist指数模型对山东省17地市生态效率及其变化特征进行测评.结果显示:山东省生态效率呈现波动变化,各地市之间差异明显,有6市达到了效率最优,烟尘、工业固废、工业粉尘和SO2是影响非前沿面城市生态效率提升的重要因素;各地市资源效率与环境效率存在差异,环境效率发展较好的城市数量多于资源效率;技术进步对生态效率的提高起着明显的促进作用;驱动技术创新、优化产业布局,发展循环经济是山东省提升生态效率的有效途径.     

Data classification and performance evaluation for the most commonly-used univariate alarm systems

Alarm systems are critically important for safe and efficient operations of industrial plants, but many industrial alarm systems are suffering from too many nuisance alarms. This paper proposes a method to classify normal and abnormal data segments and evaluate performance indices for the most commonly used univariate alarm systems. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, piece-wise linear representations are exploited in separating historical data samples of an analog process variable configured with alarms into data segments with same qualitative trends. Second, data segments are classified into normal, abnormal and unclassified conditions via a mean hypothesis test; a required assumption is that data segments in normal and abnormal conditions have different mean values being distinguishable from alarm thresholds. Third, based on the normal and abnormal data, performance indices of univariate alarm systems are calculated, including two newly formulated ones as the false alarm duration ratio and the missed alarm duration ratio. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by numerical and industrial examples.     

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard‐to‐detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts’ assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural‐appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best‐performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola.     

Loss of Large Predatory Sharks from the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract:  Evidence for severe declines in large predatory fishes is increasing around the world. Because of its long history of intense fishing, the Mediterranean Sea offers a unique perspective on fish population declines over historical timescales. We used a diverse set of records dating back to the early 19th and mid 20th century to reconstruct long-term population trends of large predatory sharks in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We compiled 9 time series of abundance indices from commercial and recreational fishery landings, scientific surveys, and sighting records. Generalized linear models were used to extract instantaneous rates of change from each data set, and a meta-analysis was conducted to compare population trends. Only 5 of the 20 species we considered had sufficient records for analysis. Hammerhead ( Sphyrna spp.), blue ( Prionace glauca ), mackerel ( Isurus oxyrinchus and Lamna nasus ), and thresher sharks ( Alopias vulpinus ) declined between 96 and 99.99% relative to their former abundance. According to World Conservation Union (IUCN) criteria, these species would be considered critically endangered. So far, the lack of quantitative population assessments has impeded shark conservation in the Mediterranean Sea. Our study fills this critical information gap, suggesting that current levels of exploitation put large sharks at risk of extinction in the Mediterranean Sea. Possible ecosystem effects of these losses involve a disruption of top-down control and a release of midlevel consumers.     

基于面板数据的土地投入对经济增长的影响-以浙江省为例

采用生产函数与面板数据回归模型相结合的研究手段，以地处经济发达地区的浙江省为实证研究区域对土地要素投入对经济增长的影响进行了定量的研究。研究结果表明：(1)就规模效应而言，浙江省的经济增长处于规模报酬不变的发展阶段；(2)浙江省经济增长对劳动力要素的投入最为敏感，其中土地要素、劳动力要素和资本要素增加1个单位的投入量对经济增长的推动为 0.247 3、0.538 5 和 0.321 6；（3）固定资产投入在研究期间是浙江省经济增长的主要推动力，其贡献率达到6823%，而劳动力要素与土地要素则分别为2346%和625%；(4)浙江省土地利用不够集约，在研究期间土地要素对经济增长的影响能被资本要素与劳动力要素有效替代，而劳动力要素则难以被资本投入与土地投入有效替代，劳动集约型产业应该成为浙江省未来发展方向之一。     

Historical perspectives on contemporary human–environment dynamics in southeast Africa

The human communities and ecosystems of island and coastal southeast Africa face significant and linked ecological threats. Socioecological conditions of concern to communities, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers include declining agricultural productivity, deforestation, introductions of non-native flora and fauna, coastal erosion and sedimentation, damage to marine environments, illegal fishing, overfishing, waste pollution, salinization of freshwater supplies, and rising energy demands, among others. Human–environment challenges are connected to longer, often ignored, histories of social and ecological dynamics in the region. We argue that these challenges are more effectively understood and addressed within a longer-term historical ecology framework. We reviewed cases from Madagascar, coastal Kenya, and the Zanzibar Archipelago of fisheries, deforestation, and management of human waste to encourage increased engagement among historical ecologists, conservation scientists, and policy makers. These case studies demonstrate that by widening the types and time depths of data sets we used to investigate and address current socioecological challenges, our interpretations of their causes and strategies for their mitigation varied significantly.     

Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001–2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox‐related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer‐expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.     

Costs of Integrating Economics and Conservation Planning

Abstract: Recent literature on systematic conservation planning has focused strongly on economics. It is a necessary component of efficient conservation planning because the question is about effective resource allocation. Nevertheless, there is an increasing tendency toward economic factors overriding biological considerations. Focusing too narrowly on economic cost may lead us back toward solutions resembling those obtained by opportunistic choice of areas, the avoidance of which was the motivation for development of systematic approaches. Moreover, there are many overlooked difficulties in incorporating economic considerations reliably into conservation planning because available economic data and the free market are complex. For instance, economies based on free markets tend to be shortsighted, whereas biodiversity conservation aims far into the future. Although economic data are necessary, they should not be relied on too heavily or considered separately from other sociopolitical factors. We suggest focusing on development of more‐comprehensive ecological‐economic modeling, while not forgetting the importance of purely biological analyses that are needed as a point of reference for evaluating conservation outcomes.     

基于离线采集模式的高低温低气压试验箱校准技术的研究

针对高低温低气压箱校准技术展开研究,分析了传统校准方案的不足之处,提出了一种基于离线采集模式的高低温低气压试验箱温度、压力校准方案,并结合虚拟仪器、数据库与MATLAB,完成了该方案的设计与实现。最后通过实验验证了该方案的可靠性与可行性,并应用到环境与可靠性工作中。