基于STIRPAT模型的中国城镇生活能源消费影响因素研究

为探究人口规模、收入水平、消费倾向、节能政策和技术等因素对中国城镇生活能源消费的影响,基于拓展的STIRPAT模型并运用2000~2013年中国省际面板数据对各影响因素的效应进行评估。结果显示:城镇生活能源强度、城镇居民消费倾向、人均可支配收入、城镇化率、总人口、政策综合力度6个因素的增长率每变化1%,将会引起城镇生活能源消费量增长率0.9322%、0.8537%、(0.559 2+0.169 2 ln DI)%、0.599 8%、0.408 0%、-0.012 0%的变化,表明除节能政策外,其余5因素均正向促进城镇生活能耗增长。其中生活能源强度对城镇生活能耗影响最大,节能政策虽会抑制城镇生活能耗增长,但作用较为微弱。政府需继续加强节能政策综合实施力度,从而实现生活能源消费领域的节能减排。     

Conceptual Framework for the National Flood Interoperability Experiment

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment is a research collaboration among academia, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service, and government and commercial partners to advance the application of the National Water Model for flood forecasting. In preparation for a Summer Institute at the National Water Center in June‐July 2015, a demonstration version of a near real‐time, high spatial resolution flood forecasting model was developed for the continental United States. The river and stream network was divided into 2.7 million reaches using the National Hydrography Dataset Plus geospatial dataset and it was demonstrated that the runoff into these stream reaches and the discharge within them could be computed in 10 min at the Texas Advanced Computing Center. This study presents a conceptual framework to connect information from high‐resolution flood forecasting with real‐time observations and flood inundation mapping and planning for local flood emergency response.     

基于LLE-ELM的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法研究

基于局部线性嵌入(Locally Linear Embedding,LLE)算法和极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)神经网络建立矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型,该预测模型运用LLE算法对矿井瓦斯涌出量影响因素样本进行数据挖掘,得到降维后的有效因子,再将这些有效因子作为ELM神经网络的输入层进行训练和预测。利用某矿井的实测数据进行实例分析,结果表明该预测模型预测速度快,精度高,能够用于矿井瓦斯涌出量预测。     

Integration of Optical and Microwave Remote Sensing Data for Agricultural Land Use Classification

An agricultural land use classification of Oltrepo' Pavese region (in Northern Italy) is performed through integration of remote sensing data from optical and radar sensors. The source of optical data was a Landsat-TM image acquired on April 1994, while the source of microwave data was a contemporaneous image of the new radar sensor SIR-C/X-SAR which was flown on-board the Space Shuttle during an experimental mission over the chosen test site. Then, they were combined through calculation of the principal components of the multidimensional data sets and a final classification was carried out and compared with the classifications obtained from optical and radar recordings separately. Results showed remarkable improvement in the classification accuracy of seedbeds and uncultivated fields with radar recordings and of herbaceous crop type with integrated data. Potential ability of a multi-sensor classification and limits of a single-temporal approach are discussed.     

Advantages of Volunteer-Based Biodiversity Monitoring in Europe

Abstract:  Without robust and unbiased systems for monitoring, changes in natural systems will remain enigmatic for policy makers, leaving them without a clear idea of the consequences of any environmental policies they might adopt. Generally, biodiversity-monitoring activities are not integrated or evaluated across any large geographic region. The EuMon project conducted the first large-scale evaluation of monitoring practices in Europe through an on-line questionnaire and is reporting on the results of this survey. In September 2007 the EuMon project had documented 395 monitoring schemes for species, which represents a total annual cost of about €4 million, involving more than 46,000 persons devoting over 148,000 person-days/year to biodiversity-monitoring activities. Here we focused on the analysis of variations of monitoring practices across a set of taxonomic groups (birds, amphibians and reptiles, mammals, butterflies, plants, and other insects) and across 5 European countries (France, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, and Poland). Our results suggest that the overall sampling effort of a scheme is linked with the proportion of volunteers involved in that scheme. Because precision is a function of the number of monitored sites and the number of sites is maximized by volunteer involvement, our results do not support the common belief that volunteer-based schemes are too noisy to be informative. Just the opposite, we believe volunteer-based schemes provide relatively reliable data, with state-of-the-art survey designs or data-analysis methods, and consequently can yield unbiased results. Quality of data collected by volunteers is more likely determined by survey design, analytical methodology, and communication skills within the schemes rather than by volunteer involvement per se.     

Simulation of transport and composition changes during a blocking episode over the East Atlantic and North Europe

Transport of atmospheric trace gases during a blocking event in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in August 1997 is studied. Considering the frequency of such events it is obvious that they play a significant role for climate and air chemistry and thus the atmospheric environment. The event has been selected because a unique set of composition observations carried out by the CRISTA (Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere) instrument in the UTLS was available for the period of blocking. The regional European Atmospheric Dispersion (EURAD) model system was used for a detailed analysis focusing on ozone and CFC 11 (CFCl₃, Freon) distributions and their temporal and spatial variability. The combination of the CRISTA data and a regional transport chemistry model enabled a unique analysis of transport behaviour of a blocking. This developed an Ω-structure with a deep cut-off low at the western flank of the blocking high and a trough with highly perturbed trace gas fields on the eastern side. Tropopause heights varied intensively and were bended down to rather low levels in the cut-off low and folds appearing in the eastern trough. Results of artificial tracer experiments are presented which show that polluted air from lower tropospheric levels and – in this case – lower latitudes as well as the North American continent may be lifted up to the UTLS in the anticyclonic part of the Ω-block and transported from there over large distances in streamers. Quasi-periodic variations of CFC 11 flux divergence indicate dynamical coupling of the different domains of the block.     

安全史学的方法论研究

从历史研究发展和安全科学发展的角度分析安全史学研究的重要性和必要性。对安全史学的定义、安全史学认识系统结构、安全史学研究的特征进行综述,详细分析安全史学的研究对象及其分类。基于史学方法论原则和安全科学的方法论原则,总结了安全史学的方法论原则。分析安全史学研究的一般方法即归纳方法、比较方法和综合方法在安全科学研究中的应用,从安全史学研究资料的搜集和分析过程提出安全史学方法学。综合相关文献资料,结合马斯洛层次需求理论和系统论,提出基于人的需求层次的安全史学系统研究法及其应用,为安全史学研究的开展提供理论依据。     

中国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究(Ⅰ)——气象/气候信息的空间化技术途径

论文提出了构建中国陆地生态系统空间化信息系统的基本设想,并且在回顾国内外气象/气候信息空间化研究的现状基础上,评价了已有的气象/气候信息要素空间化技术的发展,探讨了中国陆地生态系统气象/气候信息空间化的技术途径,概要地介绍了研究小组在近年来的工作中所取得的阶段性研究成果,展望了这些成果的应用前景。我国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究和数据产品的开发是生态学、资源科学和环境科学发展的迫切需求。但建立一个适应于不同科学研究的精度、时空分辨率要求的陆地生态信息空间数据库需要较长期的努力和多学科领域的合作,也需要大量的作为科学研究基础数据平台建设的国家投资。     

环境空间决策支持集成系统的设计原理与应用

空间决策支持系统(SDSS)是地理信息系统(GIS)和决策支持系统(DSS)的有机结合.笔者在已有研究成果基础上,以厦门市环境管理空间决策支持集成系统(XME-SDSS)为例,介绍了空间信息集成系统的设计原理和实现方法,包括数据分析模型、系统的数据流、数据库结构以及系统的集成方式.      

Population Viability Analysis with Species Occurrence Data from Museum Collections

Abstract: The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi‐extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available.