Probabilistic Linkage of Police and Emergency Department Sources of Information on Motor-Vehicle Injury Cases: a Proposal for Improvement

Data on traffic injury cases that includes both the crash circumstances and the health outcome is a key tool for creating appropriate motor-vehicle injury prevention policies. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of the probabilistic linkage of police and emergency department data relating to motor-vehicle injury cases in Barcelona. A probabilistic linkage process was performed using local police reports (n = l2,481) and hospital emergency department data (n = 16,733) for all traffic injury cases that occurred in 1997. In almost two out of every three matched pairs for the injured person, at least five of the seven variables coincided, and in 7.3% of the cases all variables coincided. This work has allowed the empirical development of combined methods for the linkage of police and healthcare sources of information at the local level, which are the preliminary steps towards the construction of a data base that would include full information on the circumstances and the consequences of motor-vehicle crashes.     

A Non-confrontational Approach to Socially Responsible Air Pollution Control: The electoral experience of Kitakyushu

Social scientists have described Japan's urban anti-pollution protests in the 1960s as a national phenomenon. However, in Kitakyushu, Japan's most polluted industrial city at that time, no distinct citizens' movement developed. Because local politics and economics were so dominated by large industry, its citizens were reluctant to directly challenge these industries. Instead, local women's groups studied local pollution problems and presented their general findings to the public. These activities raised public awareness and resulted in increased support for local leftist politicians because leftist administrations had succeeded in cutting pollution in their cities. Kitakyushu's conservative mayor and local industry both became concerned that leftists would win the next local elections if pollution was not reduced. Thus the municipal government utilised scientific pollution data and prepared individualised pollution reduction recommendations in sulphur oxide pollution control agreements, which were accepted and complied with by all local industries. The result was a significant reduction in air pollution without the need for active intervention from Kitakyushu's citizenry. Cientificos sociales han descrito las protestas anti-polución urbana de Japon en los años 60 como un fenómeno nacional. Sinembargo, en Kitakyushu, ciudad industrial japonesa más polucionada en ese tiempo, no se desarrollóningún movimiento ciudadano evidente. Debido a que las políticas locales y económicas eran dominadas por la gran industria, sus ciudadanos no estaban dispuestos a retar directamente estas industrias. En lugar de eso, grupos locales de mujeres estudiaron problemas locales de polución y presentaron sus resultados al público. Estas actividades despertaron conciencia pública y resultaron en el incremento del apoyo para políticos izquierdistas locales debido a que las administraciones izquierdistas habían triunfado en la reducción de la polución en sus ciudades. El alcalde conservador y la industria local de Kitakyushu empezaron a preocuparse que los izquierdistas ganarían las próximas elecciones locales si la polución no era reducida. Asíque, el Gobierno Municipal utilizó información científica sobre polución y preparó recomendaciones de reducción de polución individualizada en acuerdos de control de polución en oxído sulfurico, los cuales fueron aceptados y obedecidos por todas las industrias locales. El resultado fue una significativa reducción en la polución del aire sin la necesidad de la intervención activa de parte de la ciudadania de Kitakyushu.     

On the potential of iPhone significant location data to characterize individual mobility for air pollution health studies

● We evaluated the accuracy of iPhone data in capturing time-activity patterns. ● iPhone data captured the most important microenvironments and time spent in them. ● iPhone data also accurately captured daily exposure to ambient PM pollution. ● A considerable fraction of the population in the USA may have iPhone data available. ● iPhone data has great potential in air pollution health studies. In many air pollution health studies, the time-activity pattern of individuals is often ignored largely due to lack of data. However, a better understanding of this location-based information is expected to decrease uncertainties in exposure estimation. Here, we showcase the potential of iPhone’s Significant Location (iSL) data in capturing the user’s historical time-activity patterns in order to estimate exposure to ambient air pollutants. In this study, one subject carried an iPhone in tandem with a reference GPS tracking device for one month. The GPS device recorded locations in 10 second intervals while the iSL recorded the time spent in locations the subject visited frequently. Using GPS data as a reference, we then evaluated the accuracy of iSL data in capturing the subject’s time-activity patterns and time-weighted air pollution concentration within the study time period. We found the iSL data accurately captured the time the subject spent in 16 microenvironments (i.e. locations the subject visited more than once), which was 93% of the time during the study period. The average error of time-weighted aerosol optical depth value, a surrogate of particle pollution, is only 0.012%. To explore the availability of iSL data among iPhone users, an online survey was conducted. Among the 349 surveyed participants, 72% of them have iSL data available. Considering the popularity of iPhones, iSL data may be available for a significant portion of the general population. Our results suggest iSL data have great potential for characterizing historical time-activity patterns to improve air pollution exposure estimation.     

Closing the knowledge-action gap in conservation with open science

The knowledge-action gap in conservation science and practice occurs when research outputs do not result in actions to protect or restore biodiversity. Among the diverse and complex reasons for this gap, three barriers are fundamental: knowledge is often unavailable to practitioners and challenging to interpret or difficult to use or both. Problems of availability, interpretability, and useability are solvable with open science practices. We considered the benefits and challenges of three open science practices for use by conservation scientists and practitioners. First, open access publishing makes the scientific literature available to all. Second, open materials (detailed methods, data, code, and software) increase the transparency and use of research findings. Third, open education resources allow conservation scientists and practitioners to acquire the skills needed to use research outputs. The long-term adoption of open science practices would help researchers and practitioners achieve conservation goals more quickly and efficiently and reduce inequities in information sharing. However, short-term costs for individual researchers (insufficient institutional incentives to engage in open science and knowledge mobilization) remain a challenge. We caution against a passive approach to sharing that simply involves making information available. We advocate a proactive stance toward transparency, communication, collaboration, and capacity building that involves seeking out and engaging with potential users to maximize the environmental and societal impact of conservation science.     

Fabricating data: how substituting values for nondetects can ruin results, and what can be done about it

The most commonly used method in environmental chemistry to deal with values below detection limits is to substitute a fraction of the detection limit for each nondetect. Two decades of research has shown that this fabrication of values produces poor estimates of statistics, and commonly obscures patterns and trends in the data. Papers using substitution may conclude that significant differences, correlations, and regression relationships do not exist, when in fact they do. The reverse may also be true. Fortunately, good alternative methods for dealing with nondetects already exist, and are summarized here with references to original sources. Substituting values for nondetects should be used rarely, and should generally be considered unacceptable in scientific research. There are better ways.     

Delineating high-density areas in spatial Poisson fields from strip-transect sampling using indicator geostatistics: application to unexploded ordnance removal

An approach for delineating high anomaly density areas within a mixture of two or more spatial Poisson fields based on limited sample data collected along strip transects was developed. All sampled anomalies were transformed to anomaly count data and indicator kriging was used to estimate the probability of exceeding a threshold value derived from the cdf of the background homogeneous Poisson field. The threshold value was determined so that the delineation of high-density areas was optimized. Additionally, a low-pass filter was applied to the transect data to enhance such segmentation. Example calculations were completed using a controlled military model site, in which accurate delineation of clusters of unexploded ordnance (UXO) was required for site cleanup.     

多源数据融合的城市区域型消防风险分布特征研究 ——以太原都市圈所在区域为例

分析区域消防风险的空间演化特征,针对性建立并调整消防站点,可预见性地降低消防风险.以太原都市圈所在区域作为研究对象,将遥感数据、POI兴趣点数据经标准化处理后融入GIS-GANP模型中,识别城市区域间特异性消防风险因子,探讨区域消防风险系数及空间分布特征,并多角度分析消防站点规划趋势.结果表明:POI数据符合区域融合发...     

Study on Residential Water Use in North China:Analysis of Nationwide Statistical Data and Case Study of Taiyuan City

Residential water use is gradually becoming the focus in China‘s municipal water supply planning and management in recent years. Little is known, however, about the residential water use in modem China due to the transition of economy and enhancement of management on water conservation. In order to better understand the characteristics of residential water use in North China, a model for identifying the determinants of residential water use was established and analyzed by using panel data and cross-section data methodologies. Then Taiyuan city, the capital city of Shanxi Province in Northern China was selected as a case study. Both the analyses and field investigation indicate that the relatively slow increase of residential water use in recent years may result from the implementation of strict laws and regulations on water conservation. And through the investigation,first-hand information about water consumption pattern, water reuse/conservation, people‘s attitude toward water quantity and quality, etc. have been obtained.     

Technology advance and discounting of the historical emission responsibilities

Solving the dispute over historical greenhouse gases emission responsibility is critical for the future climate agreement.This article borrows the methodology from the carbon budget proposal,but further develops this approach by proposing discount of the historical responsibility due to the technology advance.Firstly,it studies the Annex I countries’mitigation and financial responsibilities of the historical emission in the carbon budget proposal;furthermore,it analyzes the results and implications of the discount approach.Results show that the discount method significantly reduces the burden of the mitigation and financial responsibilities of the Annex I countries.Thus,we claim that the discount approach is a systematic,pragmatic,and fair approach to solve the historical responsibility dispute and financial problems for the post-2020international climate institutions.     

鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析

为揭示鄱阳湖流域旱涝变化规律,预测未来变化,搜集整理了鄱阳湖流域地方志、奏折等古文献记载的旱涝记录,根据灾害现象、灾害后果、救灾情况等综合研判旱涝等级。对1160~1950s旱涝频次序列进行了变化周期分析。采用了R/S方法分析了年代际旱涝频次的Hurst指数,结合变化周期分析结果,对1950s以后鄱阳湖流域的旱涝频次变化趋势进行预测,采用基于1951~2010年器测降水量的SPI指数进行验证。研究结果表明:1160~1940s鄱阳湖流域及各子流域的干旱、洪涝频次呈波动变化,周期性变化明显,干旱、洪涝的3~6个年代周期段在整个时段内均非常显著,通过了95%的信度检验;鄱阳湖流域及各子流域的年代际干旱频次的Hurst指数普遍在0.7~0.8之间,洪涝在0.8~0.9之间。预测1950s后鄱阳湖流域年代际旱涝频次整体变化将呈阶段性上升趋势,经验证预测结果与实况较为吻合。