The National Water Model (NWM) will provide the next generation of operational streamflow forecasts across the United States (U.S.) using the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model. In this study, we propose a strategy to calibrate 10 parameters of WRF-Hydro that control runoff generation during floods and snowmelt seasons, and due to baseflow. We focus on the Oak Creek Basin (820 km2), an unregulated mountainous sub-watershed of the Salt and Verde River Basins in Arizona, which are the largest source of water supply for the Phoenix Metropolitan area. We calibrate the model against discharge observations at the outlet in 2008–2011, and validate it at two stream gauging stations in 2012–2016. After bias correcting the precipitation forcings, we sequentially modify the model parameters controlling distinct runoff generation processes in the basin. We find that capturing the deep drainage to the aquifer is crucial to improve the simulation of all processes and that this flux is mainly controlled by the SLOPE parameter. Performance metrics indicate that snowmelt, baseflow, and floods due to winter storms are simulated fairly well, while flood peaks caused by summer thunderstorms are severely underestimated. We suggest the use of spatially variable soil depth to enhance the simulation of these processes. This work supports the ongoing calibration effort of the NWM by testing WRF-Hydro in a watershed with a large variety of runoff mechanisms that are representative of several basins in the southwestern U.S. 相似文献
Objective: Operating speed is a critical indicator to evaluate consistency of road alignment and safety. Although extensive studies have been conducted on developing operating speed models, few researchers have considered the interactive influence of horizontal and vertical alignment in 3D space. The purpose of this study is to develop a speed model based on 3D alignment in Euclidean space rather than traditional horizontal and vertical alignment.
Methods: According to the curve theory of differential geometry, a novel method to estimate operating speed is proposed in our study using 3D space curvature instead of traditional horizontal or vertical parameters to describe the spatial geometric properties for a freeway alignment. Speeds of 54 different alignment segments are observed to develop the speed model. Several observing sites of each segment are selected beforehand, and the speeds of more than 300 vehicles in each site are observed. Space curvature is used as an important index to estimate operating speed.
Results: The findings of this study indicated that both horizontal alignment and vertical alignment contribute to space curvature. Space curvature mainly affects direction control operating performance. However, vehicles overcome the effects of gravity along the vertical alignment in the z direction. Results indicate that operating speed exponentially declines with space curvature and that quadratic parabola decline with vertical grade.
Conclusions: It can be concluded that there is a clear correlation between velocity and spatial curvature, which is proved by variance analysis. The estimation results of the speed models are reliable as tested using a real engineering example. The study would provide a scientific basis for safety evaluation of freeway alignment. 相似文献