煤矿开采地表沉陷盆地边界的再认识

为了研究厚松散层条件下煤矿开采沉陷盆地边界的界定及其影响因素，基于现场实测资料和误差传播定律，建立了厚含水松散层条件下地表沉陷监测点点位中误差函数模型；以辛置煤矿五采区为工程背景，采用UDEC离散元数值分析方法，揭示了采动程度与边界角之间的协同作用关系。研究结果表明:不同国家对沉陷盆地边界的界定并不统一，厚含水松散层条件下，沉陷盆地边缘15 mm的水平移动点可作为沉陷盆地的边界，对于特级保护对象，建议以2 mm下沉点作为沉陷盆地的边界。随着采动程度的增加，沉陷盆地上、下山边界角呈现先缓慢减小再逐渐增加的趋势，二者服从Lorentz函数模型，相关度分别为0.88和0.99，该函数模型能够表达研究区域采动程度与边界角之间的内在联系。     

唐古拉冬克玛底冰川流域pH值和电导率分析

2005-05-11～2005-09-27,在青藏高原唐古拉段冬克玛底冰川流域对融水径流和草地径流分别进行采样.对样品的pH值和电导率进行了分析.结果表明,研究区环境受人类活动影响很小.借助电导率水量来源模型对冬克玛底河流量进行划分,暖季径流主要以冰川冰融水补给为主,占总流量的62%以上,其次是积雪融水和降雨补给,其中,第1、3阶段的积雪融水补给分别占31%和37%,第2阶段的降雨补给占17%左右;土壤冻结水消融对径流贡献很小,占2%以下.     

Levels and congener profiles of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Zebra mussels (D. polymorpha) from Lake Maggiore (Italy)

Several congeners of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were monitored in 14 different sampling stations of Lake Maggiore, the second largest Italian lake in regard to surface, volume and average depth, using the sentinel-organism Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). Results revealed a moderate contamination with summation operatorPBDE levels (BDE-17, -28, -47, -66, -71, -85, -99, -100, -138, -153, -154, -183, -190 and -209) ranging from 40 to 447ngg(-1) lipid weight which are similar to those found in environments polluted by deposition or atmospheric transport. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was BDE-47>-99>-100>-209, which closely reflected patterns observed in mussels collected in freshwater ecosystems worldwide.     

Improved Bankfull Discharge Prediction Using 2‐Year Recurrence‐Period Discharge1

Abstract:  Knowledge of bankfull discharge (Q_bf) is essential for planners, engineers, geomorphologists, environmentalists, agricultural interests, developments situated on flood prone lands, surface mining and reclamation activities, and others interested in floods and flooding. In conjunction with estimating Q_bf, regionalized bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships, which relate Q_bf and associated channel dimensions (i.e., width, depth, and cross‐section area) to drainage basin area (A_da), are often used. This study seeks to improve upon the common practice of predicting Q_bf using A_da exclusively. Specifically, we hypothesize that predictions of Q_bf can be improved by including estimates of the 2‐year recurrence‐period discharge (Q₂) in regression models for predicting Q_bf. For testing this hypothesis, we used Q_bf estimates from 30 reports containing data for streams that span 34 hydrologic regions in 16 states. Corresponding values of Q₂ and A_da were compiled from flood‐frequency reports and other sources. By comparing statistical measures (i.e., root mean squared error, coefficient of determination, and Akaike’s information criterion), we determined that predicting Q_bf from Q₂ rather than A_da yields consistently better estimates of Q_bf. Other principal findings are (1) data are needed for at least 12 sites in a region for reliable hydraulic geometry model selection and (2) an approximate range of values for Q_bf/Q₂ is 0.10‐3.0.     

Effective Efficiency as a Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management1

Abstract: The sufficiency and usefulness of Effective Efficiency (EE) as a water resources index is shown through conceptual formulation of a generalized EE and practical applications. Two EE models are proposed: one is based on water quantity and the other on quantity and quality, with the possibility of considering water reuse (recycling) in both. These models were developed for two scales: the first is called Project EE and the second Basin EE. The latter gives the influence of the project on the water resources systems of the basin while the former does not make such connection to the whole basin. Such considerations give proper signals as to the adequacy of any intervention to increase efficiency. A crucial distinction is made between depletion and diversion water savings. Classical Efficiency (CE) models are analyzed and compared with the various EE models. CE results in values that are less than EE because of not considering water reuse and water quality in its calculation. Some authors, pointing to these problems – particularly the first problem – have advocated the use of hydrological “fractions” instead of efficiency concepts. This paper defends the use of a proper efficiency model such as EE and suggests putting an end to the use of the CE indicators. To test the models, they are applied to five cases of irrigation and city water use in the United States and Egypt. The analysis of the results demonstrates all the points mentioned above and the potential of the EE models to adequately describe the water resources efficiency and sustainability at a location.     

不同土地利用模式下洪泽湖流域非点源颗粒态磷负荷时空演变研究

综合星地协同技术手段,定量化表征1990年以来洪泽湖流域非点源颗粒态磷负荷的时空变化特征,并差别化地探讨其与流域土地利用变化的响应关系,厘清二者的作用机制,为实现非点源磷污染的有效管控提供科技支撑。主要结论包括:(1)近20年,颗粒态磷负荷呈现"下降-上升-下降"的波动状态,1990~1996年呈下降趋势,1998~2006年保持平稳增长状态,2008年后快速下降;(2)颗粒态磷单位负荷空间差异明显,高值区集中分布在淮河支流流域(3.88 t/km~2/a),低值区则主要分布在汴河流域(0.57 t/km~2/a);(3)不同土地利用模式下平均颗粒态磷负荷由高到低依次为:多种地类混合的淮河支流流域(681.84 t/a)、城镇化快速增长的高松河流域(317.65 t/a)、农用地主导的维桥河流域(185.73 t/a)、湿地保护区的汴河流域(121.09 t/a)。林地、湿地等用地类型能显著减少颗粒态磷污染物的流失量,农用地和建设用地则会加剧颗粒态面源磷污染。     

长江水δ~(18)O和δD时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

稳定同位素示踪技术已成为研究河流的水文过程及其变化的重要手段,尤其在河网交错密集和水力关系复杂的长江流域。通过分析枯水期和丰水期长江水及大气降水中δ~(18)O和δD组成的变化,揭示其时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果发现长江流域大气降水δ~(18)O组成表征出明显的空间分布差异特征,长江河源区降水δ~(18)O值最低,随着海拔高度降低降水中δ~(18)O值自长江上游向下游地区逐渐减小,这与流域的水汽来源及海拔高度密切有关;枯水期长江水δ~(18)O和δD值明显要高于丰水期,原因在于丰水期河水受到较弱的蒸发富集作用和大量降水补给影响;无论在丰水期还是枯水期长江水自上游到下游其同位素值呈逐渐增大的趋势,这主要受不同河段支流和湖泊等水体补给的影响。三峡大坝的蓄水和放水过程对河水同位素组成产生一定的影响,丰水期对相应河段河水同位素组成的影响不大,但在枯水期则影响较为明显,这将对充分认识长江流域大气降水-河水-湖水间水力联系与探讨其水资源合理利用提供科学依据。     

基于随机效用理论的赣江流域生态补偿支付意愿研究

研究生态补偿的支付意愿及影响因素可为建立和实施流域生态补偿机制提供决策依据。在随机效用理论框架下采用条件价值评估法和有序Logistic模型分析了赣江流域居民的生态补偿支付意愿及其影响因素,并着重研究了心理距离、心理所有权对支付意愿的影响,引入区位和类别虚拟变量对比分析了异质性支付意愿产生的原因。通过对赣江流域593份样本数据的分析发现,居民感觉河流离自己越远,则其支付河流生态服务价值的意愿越低;居民对河流的心理所有权越强烈,则其支付河流生态服务价值的意愿越高;对水质满意度较低、对环保部门的信任度较高是下游居民支付意愿偏高的主要原因;与赣江的心理距离较远,对环保部门的信任度较低是抗议性响应群体支付意愿偏低的主要原因。研究得到的政策启示在于政策制定者在设计生态补偿制度时应该重视居民支付决策的心理机制,因人因地选择不同的政策工具。从心理上缩短人与河流的距离,提升居民对河流的占有感,都有助于提高赣江流域居民的生态补偿支付意愿。     

1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明：（1）长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量（PAV）、简单日降水强度（PINT）、强降水贡献率（PQ95）、强降水阈值（PF95）、最大1日-10日降水量（PX1D-PX10D）基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。（2）PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。（3）未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。（4）遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。     

基于GIS的高原湖泊流域生态安全格局构建及优化研究——以星云湖流域为例

以星云湖流域自然人文环境特征、主要生态环境问题为出发点,结合景观生态学原理方法、熵值法和GIS空间分析技术,实现星云湖流域生态安全的空间分异格局及优化。选取海拔高程、坡度、土壤侵蚀强度、地质灾害易发性、土地覆被(利用方式和植被覆盖度)、人口密度、距自然保护区距离、距离建设用地和距水源距离等因素为阻力因子叠加生成综合阻力要素,根据GIS空间成本距离分析原理,引用最小累积阻力模型识别构建流域生态廊道和生态节点,进一步规划优化流域生态功能网络的结构和功能。研究表明:(1)从各安全等级面积比例和平均生态安全指数角度,星云湖流域中度安全占流域总面积的45.81%,高度安全为25.24%,较低安全为21.05%,不安全占7.9%,平均生态安全指数为2.95,流域生态安全总体处于中度安全,生态系统健康一般,但部分地区生态安全性较低,主要分布在南部、东部和北部地区,应重视这些区域的生态保护和建设;同时,坡度、水土流失因子和水资源(自然环境要素)、土地利用格局和距离建设用地(人类活动干扰要素)等因素是流域生态安全格局形成的主要因子;(2)识别规划了中枢生态源、核心型生态源斑块、一般生态源、多种级别的生态廊道和生态节点或战略点等构成的具有结构性和层次性的流域生态安全网络格局,对不同层次和结构的生态源、生态廊道和生态节点或战略点进行针对性建设保护,将有效提升流域生态系统的功能价值性和系统的完整性,进而加强流域生态稳定安全。