THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游工业发展的影响

南水北调中线工程计划从丹江口水库向我国北方每年调水１４５亿ｍ＾３,汉江丹江口以下地区的水资源量将随之相应减少。汉江中下游地区是湖北省盐化工、机械、石油、食品、化肥、电力的重要生产地区,是湖北省的汽车工业走廊,其经济在湖北省占有举足轻重的地位。由于经济的迅速发展,下世纪工农业生产和人民生活对水资源的需求将从现在的１４０亿ｍ＾３增加到２５０亿ｍ＾３以上,需水量将达到水资源量的５８％,潜伏着严重的水资源     

Developing sinks for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> through forestation of temperate coastal barriers: an environmental business

Since the 1940s, some sectors of the sand dune barriers of Buenos Aires Province have been forested to fix the sand in the neighborhoods of resort villages. Man took advantage of the maritime climate and the shallow groundwater to introduce pine forests. Today, these forests reach more than 20 m in height and have developed soils of more than 0.05 m in thickness on former arid sands. Field data were referred to Landsat (TM) composite and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index, NDVI, images to calculate forest density and covered area. Considering published tables of wood density for each species, the amount of total carbon storage was estimated on 318 t C ha^-1 (Mg=10⁶ g) in biomass and 86 t C ha^-1 in soils. The three areas analyzed at Miramar, Necochea and Claromecó have captured 658,868 t of carbon in the last 50 years. It is estimated that 150,000,000 t C could be sequestered within temperate dune barriers of Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. Besides this ecological point of view, there is an important socio-economic factor that cannot be excluded.Presented at and revised subsequent to the 4th LOICZ Open Science Meeting, Bahía Blanca, Argentina. October 1999.     

Ecological tax reforms and environmental benefits in Italy and Sweden

The paper calculates the implications of including monetary measurements of environmental emission changes for the welfare impacts of ecological tax reforms in Italy and Sweden. Taxes on emissions of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ are investigated. Country-specific computable equilibrium models are used for estimating net welfare changes of the introduction of these taxes, the incomes of which are used for reducing distorting labour taxes. The results indicate that the inclusion of environmental benefits reduces the costs of ecological tax reforms considerably for both countries, and may even turn into net welfare gains.     

Benefits-based analysis of visitor use of Sorak-san National Park in Korea

Benefits-based management seeks to provide recreation benefits for recreation participants by managing the physical environments in which recreation occurs. This study investigates the relationship between benefits desired by visitors and the physical, social, and managerial characteristics of settings that facilitate realization of recreation benefits. Data such as perceived benefits from recreation experiences, setting attributes that significantly influenced perceived benefits, and sociodemographic variables were collected from 376 visitors to Sorak-san National Park in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. Cluster analysis was used to group visitors' desired benefits into 12 domains: relationship with nature/scenery, escaping pressure, learning about nature, family togetherness, introspection, exploration, autonomy/achievement, being with friends, leading others, skills/learning, risk taking, and meeting/observing new people. Multiple regression was used to link benefit domains with the characteristics of settings. The social attribute of recreation settings was linked to eight of the ten benefit domains. There were two statistically strong multiple regression correlations: (1) between domain of “relationship with nature /scenery” and the attributes “forest/water,”“attractive nature,” and “facility/maintenance” and (2) between the domain of “escaping pressure” and the attributes “attractive nature” and “social.” The results of this study are useful to managers in their efforts to provide recreation opportunities for visitors to achieve beneficial outcomes.     

风险投资:一种发现企业价值型的投资

风险投资已经被各国公认为中小企业尤其是高科技企业成长的"推进器"。为了深入理解风险投资的本质,从风险投资的行为和基本特征入手,通过对价值理论的回顾和企业价值表述方式的描述,揭示了风险投资作为发现价值型投资的本质,即通过发现投资对象的潜在价值并通过不断的增值服务使潜在的价值逐步显化,从而得到大多数投资者认可后实施股权转让获得丰厚回报的投资本质。     

BENEFITS FROM WATER CONSERVATION DEPEND ON COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING1

: Substantial reductions in municipal water use are feasible without reducing the quality of life. If conservation measures are preplanned, properly engineered, and coordinated, reductions in utility bills for water, waste water, and energy are estimated at $30+per person per year. Installation of devices to reduce water use, engineering plans to prevent malfunctioning of collecting sewers, and engineered process modifications of treatment facilities must be coordinated to achieve full benefits of water conservation. Pollutant discharges to the aquatic environment are reduced in direct proportion to the reduction in water use.     

FEASIBILITY OF INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER1

ABSTRACT: Interbasin water transfer is one of the most controversial water-resources-planning topics. Local communities, particularly those from which the water is to be taken (donor regions), generate enough opposition to doom many projects to failure. The opposition often arises because planners have traditionally considered excess water a free commodity rather than a marketable resource. To make transfer schemes mutually acceptable to donor and recipient regions, visible benefits must be offered. Agreement must be made on an acceptable purchase price and/or on other benefits such as a substantial amount of low flow augmentation or possibly some degree of flood control on the donor source stream. The hydrologic and economic feasibility of water transfer from the East Susquehanna River basin to the Delaware Reservoir System for supplemental supply to the New York City area was investigated. Nine alternative schemes for diversions up to 400 cfs and compensations in the form of low flow augmentation and/or flood control were considered resulting in unit costs to the recipient region between $90 and $380/mg. If only the minimum state-mandated flow is released to the Susquehanna River, the savings to the water recipients would be sufficient to pay a purchase price of about $21/mg, which would be equivalent to a total amount of $420,000/year for an average export of 100 cfs.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

基于粒子群算法的城市垃圾中转站的空间布局研究

随着城市化的进程，垃圾处理设施成为影响城市化质量的重要指标。依据人们实际所关注的垃圾处理设施的总成本和负效应两个因素，在前人研究的基础上，建立了垃圾收运多目标模型，使得总成本和负效应最优化。根据模型设计了粒子群算法，该算法属于智能算法，且精度高，收敛快，在许多领域也得到广泛应用。用设计的粒子群算法并结合案例求出了Pareto最优解，给出三种决策方案，验证了模型和算法的有效性和可行性，为决策者提供了一种理论参考。