Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差

环境质量评价研究多为客观、专业化评价,较少从常人角度测量居民或游客对环境质量的评价或感知。而常人的评价可能影响其环境行为,进而促进环境保护。通过调查北京、上海、海南三地游客对居住地、旅游目的地、全国三个空间尺度以及当前、未来两个时间尺度的环境质量感知,分析旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差。研究发现：（1）受访旅游者当前环境质量感知与全国相比存在乐观偏差,即“空间乐观”;与旅游目的地相比却是悲观倾向,即认为居住地环境质量不如旅游目的地;未来环境质量感知存在明显的乐观倾向,即“时间乐观”。（2）各省市旅游者对当前环境质量感知存在差异,与客观环境质量评价（EQI值）对比,安徽等8个省份的旅游者相对乐观,北京等7个省市旅游者则相对悲观;各省市旅游者未来环境质量感知的乐观偏差程度也存在差异。     

Turning molehills into mountains: Sleepiness increases workplace interpretive bias

Three studies draw from evolutionary theory to assess whether sleepiness increases interpretive biases in workplace social judgments. Study 1 established a relationship between sleepiness and interpretive bias using ambiguous interpersonal scenarios from a measure commonly used in personnel selection (N = 148). Study 2 explored the boundary conditions of the sleepiness–interpretive bias link via an experimental online field survey of U.S. adults (N = 433). Sleepiness increased interpretive bias when social threats were clearly present (unfair workplace) but did not affect bias in the absence of threat (fair workplace). Study 3 replicated and extended findings from the previous two studies using objective measures of sleep loss and a quasi‐experimental manipulation of minor sleep loss (N = 175). Negative affect, ego depletion, or personality variables did not influence the observed relationships. Overall, results suggest that a self‐protection/evolutionary perspective best explains the effects of sleepiness on workplace interpretive biases. These studies advance the current research on sleep in organizations by adding a cognitive “threat interpretation” bias approach to past work examining the emotional reaction/behavioral side of sleep disruption. Interpretive biases due to sleepiness may have significant implications for employee health and counterproductive behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth of non-English-language literature on biodiversity conservation

English is widely recognized as the language of science, and English-language publications (ELPs) are rapidly increasing. It is often assumed that the number of non-ELPs is decreasing. This assumption contributes to the underuse of non-ELPs in conservation science, practice, and policy, especially at the international level. However, the number of conservation articles published in different languages is poorly documented. Using local and international search systems, we searched for scientific articles on biodiversity conservation published from 1980 to 2018 in English and 15 non-English languages. We compared the growth rate in publications across languages. In 12 of the 15 non-English languages, published conservation articles significantly increased every year over the past 39 years, at a rate similar to English-language articles. The other three languages showed contrasting results, depending on the search system. Since the 1990s, conservation science articles in most languages increased exponentially. The variation in the number of non-English-language articles identified among the search systems differed markedly (e.g., for simplified Chinese, 11,148 articles returned with local search system and 803 with Scopus). Google Scholar and local literature search systems returned the most articles for 11 and 4 non-English languages, respectively. However, the proportion of peer-reviewed conservation articles published in non-English languages was highest in Scopus, followed by Web of Science and local search systems, and lowest in Google Scholar. About 20% of the sampled non-English-language articles provided no title or abstract in English; thus, in theory, they were undiscoverable with English keywords. Possible reasons for this include language barriers and the need to disseminate research in countries where English is not widely spoken. Given the known biases in statistical methods and study characteristics between English- and non-English-language studies, non-English-language articles will continue to play an important role in improving the understanding of biodiversity and its conservation.