The perils of flawed science in wildlife trade literature

Despite broad scientific consensus that sustainable use of wildlife can enhance conservation efforts, ethical concerns have led some community groups to oppose use of wild animals. Voicing those concerns is legitimate, but underlying philosophical bias should not influence science-based analysis and interpretation. We argue that philosophical biases are common in the scientific literature on trade in wildlife. The critically important case of bias surrounding the use of reptile leathers for luxury fashion illustrates the problem. Based on analysis of official seizures of fashion products made from wildlife, a recent study inferred that criminal activity (as inferred by noncompliance with regulations) was common and increasing and, hence, that authorities needed to adopt more stringent restrictions on the trade. In fact, the conclusions of that study are artifacts of pseudoreplication (e.g., multiple counts of single violations) and biased sampling (e.g., focus on companies with high rates of error) and run directly opposite to actual patterns in the data. As a proportion of overall trade, rates of noncompliance are exceptionally low (<0.4%), are declining, and result primarily from paper-work errors rather than criminal intent (e.g., such errors are more frequent for goods shipped by government authorities than by the commercial fashion industry). The recommendation by the study authors to prohibit the international trade in wildlife-based fashion products is imperiling a sustainable trade that can benefit biodiversity and people's livelihoods by providing financial incentives for conservation of species and habitats. This example offers a warning of the dangers of basing research on the wildlife trade on ethical or philosophical positions rather than objective evaluations of evidence.     

The challenge of biased evidence in conservation

Efforts to tackle the current biodiversity crisis need to be as efficient and effective as possible given chronic underfunding. To inform decision-makers of the most effective conservation actions, it is important to identify biases and gaps in the conservation literature to prioritize future evidence generation. We used the Conservation Evidence database to assess the state of the global literature that tests conservation actions for amphibians and birds. For the studies in the database, we investigated their spatial and taxonomic extent and distribution across biomes, effectiveness metrics, and study designs. Studies were heavily concentrated in Western Europe and North America for birds and particularly for amphibians, and temperate forest and grassland biomes were highly represented relative to their percentage of land coverage. Studies that used the most reliable study designs—before-after control-impact and randomized controlled trials—were the most geographically restricted and scarce in the evidence base. There were negative spatial relationships between the numbers of studies and the numbers of threatened and data-deficient species worldwide. Taxonomic biases and gaps were apparent for amphibians and birds—some entire orders were absent from the evidence base—whereas others were poorly represented relative to the proportion of threatened species they contained. Metrics used to evaluate effectiveness of conservation actions were often inconsistent between studies, potentially making them less directly comparable and evidence synthesis more difficult. Testing conservation actions on threatened species outside Western Europe, North America, and Australasia should be prioritized. Standardizing metrics and improving the rigor of study designs used to test conservation actions would also improve the quality of the evidence base for synthesis and decision-making.     

EFFECT OF SERIAL CORRECTION ON GROUND WATER QUALITY SAMPLING FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: Methods of calculating uncertainty in estimates of serial correlation coefficients, and correcting for bias in short and medium length (less than 50 data point) records, are presented. Uncertainty and bias in the estimation of serial correlation coefficients for ground water quality data is shown to be considerable and to result in inaccurate calculation of the sampling frequencies for monitoring purposes. The methods are applied to a ground water data set consisting of 87 monthly measurements of nitrate concentrations. The variation in serial correlation coefficients with variation of record length is examined. The optimum sampling frequencies for detection of changes in ground water nitrate concentrations are estimated.     

ESTIMATES OF MEAN CHLOROPHYLL-a CONCENTRATION: PRECISION,ACCURACY, AND SAMPLING DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Data from 56 north-temperate lakes and reservoirs are used to develop models predicting temporal variance as a function of the mean chlorophyll-a concentration. Trophy, as estimated by mean chlorophyll-a concentration, is shown to have little effect on the sampling effort required to achieve a pre-determined level of precision for lakes sampled year-round. Collecting ten observations results in a coefficient of variation that averaged 20 percent; collecting more than ten observations yields increasingly marginal improvements in precision. The same guidelines apply to mesotrophic or eutrophic lakes sampled in the summer, whereas oligotrophic lakes sampled in the summer require fewer observations to achieve the same level of precision. The bias resulting from collecting too few observations is minimized if five or more observations are collected.     

Harmonisation and Standardisation in Multi-National Environmental Statistics – Mission Impossible?

Multi-national statistics are frequently based on data, whichoriginate from national surveys. The systems of nomenclatureapplied for key attributes often show national differences.Different error sources which are incorporated in multi-nationalstatistics are discussed. The paper presents approaches forharmonisation and standardisation of multi-nationalenvironmental statistics and gives examples from the forestrysector. The effect of differences of national forest areaestimates on multi-national figures is quantified. An examplefrom forest health surveys is presented that shows the impact ofdifferent interpretation and application of the attribute crown transparency that is already harmonised on theEuropean level.     

北京市PM10自动监测网络优化研究

以北京市26个PM10监测站点2007-07-01～2008-06-30的监测数据为基础,应用正矩阵因子分析法将这些监测站点划分区域,使得每个区域具有独特的季节变化特征,并依据各类区域的去除偏差识别冗余信息站点,优化监测网络.结果表明,北京市PM10监测网络包括10个具有独特季节变化特征的区域.通州、延庆、密云水库、房山良乡和平谷世纪广场为5个独立区域;丰台花园、丰台云岗、门头沟滨湖广场、海淀北部新区和石景山古城5个西部站点为一个区域;东城东四、东城天坛、西城官园、西城万寿西宫、朝阳奥体中心、朝阳农展馆和顺义站点构成一个区域;南部站点大兴亦庄开发区、大兴黄村和大兴榆垡为一个区域;密云奥林匹克广场和怀柔站点为一个区域;西北部站点海淀香山、昌平定陵、海淀万柳和昌平镇站归为一个区域.每个区域PM10在2007～2008年具有独特的季节变化特征,PM10浓度由北向南逐渐升高.根据去除标准,设置2种PM10监测网络优化方案.方案1以监测网络不确定度为去除标准,12～18个站点即可完全代表26个站点的监测信息;方案2以2倍不确定度为去除标准,各典型月份需要保留的站点数目为10～13个.     

吹扫捕集-GC/MS法测定水中苯系物质量控制指标研究

采用吹扫捕集-气相色谱/质谱法,通过统计全国多家实验室的测定数据和实际样品测试两种方法,对水中苯、甲苯、乙苯、间/对二甲苯、邻二甲苯、苯乙烯和异丙苯8种苯系物的平行样测定相对偏差、空白加标回收率及实际样品加标回收率3个质控指标进行了研究,分别给出每种苯系物的质控指标评价标准,提出其平行样测定相对偏差为6.5％ ～13....     

A reporting guide for studies on individual differences in traffic safety

Problem

Studies on individual differences in traffic safety report differently on their methodologies, and use different statistics, and these are therefore difficult to compare and meta-analyze.

Method

Based upon a previous, extensive review and meta-analysis of the traffic safety literature, several recommendations are made about what features of the methodology of studies on individual differences (including evaluations) in safety need to be reported to facilitate interpretation and meta-analysis. Similarly, some basic types of statistical values are recommended.

Impact on Industry

The accumulation of knowledge about individual differences in traffic safety would be facilitated if scientific authors and journals adhered to these guidelines.     

Lack of innate preference for morph and species identity in mate-searching <Emphasis Type="Italic">Enallagma</Emphasis> damselflies

Insect mate recognition is often viewed as stereotypic, innate, and species-specific. However, male damselflies can learn to identify female-specific color morphs as potential mates. A suite of male mimicry hypotheses assume that heteromorphic females, which differ from males in color pattern, are more easily recognized as “female” and thus lack the inherent, anti-harassment advantage that the more male-like signal provides for andromorphs. Using two measures of male preference, we investigated whether naïve males have a preexisting sensory bias for a given morph color in Enallagma civile, a species that appeared to exhibit extreme plasticity in morph expression across generations within a breeding season. E. civile males raised in the absence of females exhibited no preference for either morph, whereas males raised with one female type exhibited a learned sensory bias for that morph. Male Enallagma also lacked a bias toward conspecific females over a congeneric sister species. In a naturally naïve population of Enallagma ebrium, males reacted sexually to both morphs of Enallagma hageni as often as they did to conspecific females, whose thoracic spectra were nearly identical with those of E. hageni. Moreover, despite the similar thoracic spectra of males and andromorphs, both of which reflected UV, males rarely reacted sexually to other males. Our results falsified implicit assumptions of male mimicry hypotheses, supported learned mate recognition, and suggested a scenario for speciation via sexual conflict.     

Making sense of organizational change: Is hindsight really 20/20?

This qualitative study explores the conceptual links between 2 different approaches to managerial cognition, sensemaking and cognitive bias, in the context of organizational change. A longitudinal case study utilizing both real‐time assessments and retrospective sensemaking data from interviews with 26 hospital employees at 3 points in time was undertaken. Patterns related to individuals' retrospective accounts and real‐time assessments were identified and used to construct 4 prototypical narratives. Data analysis revealed that organizational change was not a markedly negative experience for most informants, which is contrary to the prevailing theme in the literature. This and other findings are discussed in terms of sensemaking and cognitive bias. This study makes 2 contributions to our understanding of how individual's experience and make sense of organizational change over time as (a) little is known about how the process of change unfolds over time at the individual level and (b) extant research has not investigated the extent to which individuals' retrospective sensemaking about organizational change reflects or diverges from their real‐time assessments over the course of the change. More broadly, the study provides insights and focused advice for management researchers regarding the use of retrospective data to understand individuals' perceptions of situations that have already occurred.