A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

Current practice and shortcomings of EIA in Lithuania

The paper provides an overview of EIA system applications and assesses its effectiveness in Lithuania. A combination of archival research and quantitative/qualitative analysis was used to identify the main shortcomings of the EIA process in Lithuania: subjectivity in forecasting environmental effects, insufficient consideration of alternatives, politicisation of the process and incompetence of authorities involved. The research revealed that a thorough knowledge of EIA procedures and legal requirements may be a solution to these problems, especially when the stages related to forecasting the effects and evaluating the results are strictly reserved for recognized experts. The work concludes on the suggestions to involve in EIA process relevant authorities and to increase the competence of EIA practitioners.     

完善环境影响评价公众参与的初步研究

环境影响评价制度是我国的一项基本环境保护法律制度,是环境管理体系的重要组成部分,完善公众参与体系有利于解决当前环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题。在总结国内外公众参与发展进程的基础上,对完善公众参与体系进行了初步研究,提出了完善公众参与体系的内涵要点,提高公众参与体系研究力度,建立公众参与学相关内容。     

Integrity of Tailings Infrastructure and Information Management: A GIS-Based Conceptual Model

Managing the integrity of tailings infrastructure is an important aspect of handling mine tailings. Unfortunately, little research is directed towards its efficient modeling. This paper presents salient aspects of tailings management. It proposes an integrated geographic information systems (GIS)-based conceptual model for efficient handling of these aspects. The paper also discusses the various integrated modules and comments on the systematic implementation of the model to achieve desired results. The modules include: structural integrity management (SIM), release impact assessment (RIA), and hazardous risk assessment and control (HRAC).     

Physicochemical substance properties as indicators for unreliable exposure in microplate-based bioassays

In the last years many efforts were made to transform standardized algal test protocols into low-cost microplate assays. While advantages were pointed out frequently, limitations are not systematically addressed, thus hindering a widespread utilisation. In this study a group of organic substances with a wide distribution of volatility (log K_AW from −6.53 to −2.13) and lipophilicity (log K_OW from 1.26 to 4.92) was investigated with respect to the influence of these physicochemical properties on their algal toxicity in different assays. Therefore the EC₅₀ values were determined with a microplate assay based on ISO 8692 protocol and the results were compared with those of an established algal growth inhibition test conducted in air tight glass vessels. Using the ratio of the EC₅₀ values, a clear connection between biological response and volatility as well as lipophilicity of test substances could be detected. Chemicals with a log K_OW higher than 3 or a Henry coefficient log K_AW higher than −4 were identified as less effective in the microplate assay than in the comparative assay. The loss in nominal concentration due to physicochemical properties could be shown to contribute to this using HPLC analysis. Consequently, when using microplate assay’s one should be aware that lipophilic and volatile chemicals might be underestimated in their toxicity, which could be indicated from evaluating related physicochemical properties modelled from structural information prior to an experimental investigation.     

A fluorescence-based bioassay for aquatic macrophytes and its suitability for effect analysis of non-photosystem II inhibitors

Background, Goals and Scope During the last years the miniaturization of toxicity test systems for rapid and parallel measurements of large quantities of samples has often been discussed. For unicellular algae as well as for aquatic macrophytes, fluorescence-based miniaturized test systems have been introduced to analyze photosystem II (PSII) inhibitors. Nevertheless, high-throughput screening should also guarantee the effect detection of a broad range of toxicants in order to ensure routinely applicable, high-throughput measuring device experiments which can cover a broad range of toxicants and modes of action others than PSII inhibition. Thus, the aim of this study was to establish a fast and reproducible measuring system for non-PSII inhibitors for aquatic macrophyte species to overcome major limitations for use. Methods A newly developed imaging pulse-amplitude-modulated chlorophyll fluorometer (I-PAM) was applied as an effect detector in short-term bioassays with the aquatic macrophyte species Lemna minor. This multiwell-plate based measuring device enabled the incubation and measurement of up to 24 samples in parallel. The chemicals paraquat-dichloride, alizarine and triclosan were chosen as representatives for the toxicant groups of non-PSII herbicides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), which are often detected in the aquatic environment. The I-PAM was used (i) to establish and validate the sensitivity of the test system to the three non-PSII inhibitors, (ii) to compare the test systems with standardized and established biotests for aquatic macrophytes, and (iii) to define necessary time scales in aquatic macrophyte testing. For validation of the fluorescence-based assay, the standard growth test with L. minor (ISO/DIS 20079) was performed in parallel for each chemical. Results The results revealed that fluorescence-based measurements with the I-PAM allow rapid and parallel analysis of large amounts of aquatic macrophyte samples. The I-PAM enabled the recording of concentration-effect-curves with L. minor samples on a 24-well plate with single measurements. Fluorescence-based concentration-effect-curves could be detected for all three chemicals after only 1 h of incubation. After 4–5 h incubation time, the maximum inhibition of fluorescence showed an 80–100% effect for the chemicals tested. The EC50 after 24 h incubation were estimated to be 0.06 mg/L, 0.84 mg/L and 1.69 mg/L for paraquatdichloride, alizarine and triclosan, respectively. Discussion The results obtained with the I-PAM after 24 h for the herbicide paraquat-dichloride and the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon alizarine were in good accordance with median effective concentrations (EC50s) obtained by the standardized growth test for L. minor after 7 d incubation (0.09 mg/L and 0.79 mg/L for paraquat-dichloride and alizarine, respectively). Those results were in accordance with literature findings for the two chemicals. In contrast, fluorescence-based EC50 of the antimicrobial agent triclosan proved to be two orders of magnitude greater when compared to the standard growth test with 7 d incubation time (0.026 mg/L) as well as with literature findings. Conclusion Typically, aquatic macrophyte testing is very time consuming and relies on laborious experimental set-ups. The I-PAM measuring device enabled fast effect screening for the three chemicals tested. While established test systems for aquatic macrophytes need incubation times of ≥ 7 d, the I-PAM can detect inhibitory effects much earlier (24 h), even if inhibition of chemicals is not specifically associated with PSII. Thus, the fluorescence-based bioassay with the I-PAM offers a promising approach for the miniaturization and high-throughput testing of chemicals with aquatic macrophytes. For the chemical triclosan, however, the short-term effect prediction with the I-PAM has been shown to be less sensitive than with long-term bioassays, which might be due to physicochemical substance properties such as lipophilicity. Recommendations and Perspectives The results of this study show that the I-PAM represents a promising tool for decreasing the incubation times of aquatic macrophyte toxicity testing to about 24 h as a supplement to existing test batteries. The applicability of this I-PAM bioassay on emergent and submerged aquatic macrophyte species should be investigated in further studies. Regarding considerations that physicochemical properties of the tested substances might play an important role in microplate bioassays, the I-PAM bioassay should either be accompanied by evaluating physicochemical properties modeled from structural information prior to an experimental investigation, or by intensified chemical analyses to identify and determine nominal concentrations of the toxicants tested. The chemicals paraquat-dichloride, alizarine and triclosan were chosen as representatives for the toxicant groups of non-PSII herbicides, PAHs and PPCPs which are often detected in the aquatic environment. Nevertheless, in order to ensure a routinely applicable measuring device, experiments with a broader range of toxicants and samples of surface and/or waste waters are necessary. ESS-Submission Editor: Dr. Markus Hecker (MHecker@Entrix.com)     

飞行安全的针对性评估

根据飞行员执行新的或特殊任务的需要,在研制飞行安全评估系统时,设置了针对性评估模块.运用层析分析法(AHP)确定了针对性评估模块与一般性评估模块的权重关系.根据飞行安全理论确定了一般性评估简捷方法的因素、要素及量化数据;根据层析分析法、基元事件分析法确定了针对性评估模块的结构和因素的权重,采用基元事件分析法、飞行法规分析和调查研究相结合的方法,对针对性评估的要素进行了量化.最后针对具体事例做了评估计算.研究表明,当针对性评估的安全度小于90%时,应引起足够的警觉,采取必要的措施.     

危险品道路运输泄漏引发水污染事故的定量风险评估方法研究

介绍了由道路交通事故引发的地表水污染事故风险定量分析方法,重点分析了突发水污染事故源发生概率和危害后果表征方法.以评价水域内道路危险品运输泄漏事故发生概率为水污染事故源发生概率.污染事故后果危害水平的表征:1)敏感区(点)最高浓度; 2)敏感区(点)超标总历时;3)水质超标的范围(如超标河流长度).评估方法为陆源造成的突发水污染事故的预防管理与应急计划的制订实施提供了科学依据.     

基于人工神经网络理论的建筑物火灾安全评价研究

依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素,应用人工神经网络理论及系统安全方法,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系,该方法摆脱了评价过程中的随机性和参评人员主观上的不确定性及其认识上的模糊性等缺点,大大提高了准确性。为了验证评价模型的准确性,将该理论应用到某高校图书馆火灾危险性评价中,快速、准确地得到了安全评价结果,取得了满意效果,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。