A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

Kinetics of carbon dioxide absorption into mixed aqueous solutions of MDEA and MEA using a laminar jet apparatus and a numerically solved 2D absorption rate/kinetics model

New comprehensive numerically solved 1D and 2D absorption rate/kinetics models have been developed, for the first time, to interpret the experimental kinetic data obtained with a laminar jet apparatus for the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in CO₂ loaded mixed solutions of mixed amine system of methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) and monoethanolamine (MEA). Three MDEA/MEA weight ratios ranging from 27/03 to 23/07, over a concentration range of 2.316–1.996 kmol/m³ for MDEA and of 0.490–1.147 kmol/m³ for MEA were studied. The models take into account the coupling between chemical equilibrium, mass transfer, and the chemical kinetics of all possible chemical reactions involved in the CO₂ reaction with MDEA/MEA solvent. The partial differential equations of the 1D model were solved by two numerical techniques; the finite difference method (FDM) based on in-house coded Barakat–Clark scheme and the finite element method (FEM) based on COMSOL software. The FEM comprehensive model was then used to solve the set of partial differential equations in the 2D cylindrical coordinate system setting. Both FDM and FEM produced very accurate results for both the 1D and 2D models, which were much better than our previously published simplified model. The reaction rate constant obtained for MEA blended into MDEA at 298–333 K was k_MEA = 5.127 × 10⁸ exp(−3373.8/T). In addition, the 2D model, for the first time, has provided the concentration profiles of all the species in both the radial and axial directions of the laminar jet, thereby enabling an understanding of the correct sequence in which the reaction steps involved in the reactive absorption of CO₂ in aqueous mixed amines occur.     

A New Approach to Plant Diversity Assessment Combining HPLC Data, Simplex Mixture Design and Discriminant Analysis

The quantitative assessment of plant diversity and its monitoring with time represent a key environmental issue for management and conservation of natural resources. Assessment of plant diversity could be based on chemical analyses of secondary metabolites (e.g. flavonoids, terpenoids), because of the substantial quantitative and qualitative between-individual variability in such compounds. At a geographical scale, the plant populations become widely dispersed, and their monitoring from numerous routine individual analyses could become restricting. To overcome such constraint, this study develops a multivariate calibration model giving the relative frequency of a particular taxon from a simple high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis of a plant mixture. The model was built from a complete set of mixtures combining different taxons, according to an experimental design (Scheffé’s matrix). For each mixture, a reference HPLC pattern was simulated by averaging the individual HPLC profiles of the constitutive taxons. The calibration models, based on Bayesian discriminant analysis (BDA), gave statistical relationships between the contributions of each taxon in mixtures and reference HPLC patterns of these mixtures. Finally, these models were validated on new mixtures by using outside plants. This new biodiversity survey approach is illustrated on four chemical taxons (four chemotypes) of Astragalus caprinus (Fabaceae). The more differentiated the taxon, the better predicted its contributions (in mixtures) were by BDA calibration model. This new approach could be very useful for a global routine survey of plant diversity.     

水安全及城市水安全研究进展与趋势

归纳和总结国内外水安全及城市水安全相关研究实践及其所用的评价指标体系,并对几种常用模型与方法的应用情况及其各自的特点进行分析,针对目前水安全及城市水安全研究中存在的主要问题,指出水安全及城市水安全进一步研究的方向:从自然、生态环境、社会经济、人文4个基本方向,以系统性、持续性、动态性和层次性4个特征为基础,分析水安全及城市水安全的概念与内涵;根据研究区域特征及其主要水安全问题建立评价指标体系;以研究者对各个模型的理解程度及驾驭能力为准则选用或改造现有模型与方法;针对加强城市应急水源地建设、突发性水安全事件应急预案、湿润地区水安全等问题开展研究。     

Natural control mechanisms in models of aquatic ecosystems

Based on cybernetic categories of natural control mechanisms, four generations of ecosystem models are distinguished: feed-forward, feedback, self-adaptation and self-organization models. The analysis of the natural control mechanisms in aquatic ecosystems suggests that different processes are controlled in different ways, and, although the four mechanisms were identified in historical sequence, they all operate simultaneously. The concept of self-organization of an ecosystem is introduced and specified for a model of an aquatic pelagic ecosystem. The concept of the ecosystem as a multilayer, multigoal and multiechelon hierarchical system with hierarchy of the levels of biological organization is also introduced.     

高速公路交通噪声预测模型探讨

针对我国当前广泛使用的2种高速公路噪声预测模型《06规范》预测模型与《09导则》预测模型在预测时比较研究,重点利用环境现状监测数据分别对2种模型验证与对比分析.结果表明,2种模型预测值与实测值相差3dB ～5dB,车流量＞ 300辆/h,《09导则》更接近实测值;在夜间车流量＜300辆/h,《06规范》更接近实测值,2种模型结合采用《06规范》计算的车速,距离衰减考虑车流量的大小,在此基础上应用《09导则》,预测结果与实测值更为接近.     

A biology-based dynamic approach for the reconciliation of acute and chronic toxicity tests: application to Daphnia magna

There is the need to integrate existing toxicity data in a coherent framework for extending their domain of applicability as well as their extrapolation potential. This integration would also reduce time and cost-consuming aspects of these tests and reduce animal usage. In this work, based on data extracted from literature, we have assessed the advantages that a dynamic biology-toxicant fate coupled model for Daphnia magna could provide when assessing toxicity data, in particular, the possibility to obtain from short-term (acute) toxicity test long-term (chronic) toxicity values taking into account the inherent variability of D. magna populations and the multiple sources of data. The results show that this approach overcomes some of the limitations of existing toxicity tests and that the prediction errors are considerably reduced when compared with the factor from 2 to 5 obtained using acute-to-chronic ratios.     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Vertical migration of radionuclides in undisturbed grassland soils

Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments.