Using chemical models for evaluating the geochemical confinement capacity of a geological barrier application to the Centre de Stockage de l'Aube (France)

The feasibility of using a chemical reaction-based approach for evaluating and modelling the role of adsorption reactions in determining the geochernical confinement capacity of natural geological barriers is being studied as part of an on-going R & D programme. The confined superficial aquifer underlying the Centre de Stockage de l'Aube facility, a geological barrier for this site, has been used as a case study with the following aims. First, development of a site characterisation protocol and demonstration of its use to determine the principal geochemical characteristics of aquifer materials using batch experiments and to represent the information obtained in terms of a chemical model. The experimental results obtained for Ni²⁺ partitioning as a function of total Ni, pH, total Ca and total solid can be satisfactorily represented in terms of reactions with an ion exchange site and a single amphoteric surface hydroxyl site with ferrihydrite reaction constants. A second objective is the incorporation of the reactions in a coupled geochemistry/transport code, and to verify the applicability of the coupled code predictions for Ni²⁺ mass transfer by comparison with the results obtained during column tracer experiments. The breakthrough curve and equilibrium solid phase Ni loading, predicted by a one-dimensional coupled model for a column tracer experiment, agree closely with observed data.Additional studies are underway to reduce model conditionality, to extend the adsorption model to other analogue cations and anions, to incorporate the effect of natural organic matter and to take into consideration precipitation/dissolution of amorphous Fe surface phases.     

MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90–400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40–250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both disturbance types lead to secondary succession and secondary faunal organization. Recovery rates can be quite rapid, varying from less than 10 days to 100 or more days. We suggest that island biogeographical models seem appropriate to recovery by secondary processes after level 3 and 4 disturbances, where competition may be an important organizing factor, while models of numerical abundance and resource tracking are probably of better use where community development is by primary succession (levels 1 and 2). Development of predictive recovery models requires research that addresses a number of fundamental questions. These include the role of hydrologic patterns on colonization dynamics, the role of nonaerial colonizers in recovery from level 1 disturbances, and assessment of the impact of changes in the order of invasion by colonizers of varying energetic efficiencies. Finally, we must be able to assemble these data and determine whether information that guides community organization at one level of disturbance can provide insights into colonization dynamics at other levels.     

Integrating forage,wildlife, water,and fish projections with timber projections at the regional level: A case study in southern United States

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion to planted pine.     

Community richness and stability in agricultural landscapes: The importance of surrounding habitats

In this paper, the role played by habitat diversity in the landscape on species richness and on the stability of farmland bird communities was investigated. Species richness was estimated on 374 samples monitored in farmland by the French breeding bird survey during the 2001–2005 period. A capture–recapture approach was used to estimate species richness accounting for the variation in detection probability among species of the 100 most common species detected in farmland. Landscape structure and composition were measured both in farmland and in adjacent habitats. The independent effect of each variable on community richness and stability was further assessed using hierarchical variance partitioning and taking spatial autocorrelation into account. A strong matrix effect was detected: non-cropped land deeply influenced richness and stability of bird assemblages.     

河流水质1号模型探讨

介绍了河流水质模型70年来的发展历程和目前存在的不足之处,论述了河流水质1号模型(RwQM1)的研究成果.河流水质1号模型从活性污泥模型ASM中发展而来,并推出了建立模型的决策化方法,其对生化反应模型的完善而成为河流水质模型发展的一个标准平台.本文重点介绍了其在生化反应模型方面的进展,并和QUAL2E做了比较.     

水环境非点源污染模型研究

随着工业污染源的有效控制,非点源污染已经成为我国重要污染类型之一,如何科学地认识并有效控制非点源污染已成为研究课题.在此介绍了非点源的基础工具--非点源模型的主要类型、结构和特点,并对目前主要的非点源模型进行了比较分析,探讨了非点源模型发展的趋势.     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.