有机化合物生物富集因子的计算机预测研究

有机化合物在生物体内的富集,通常用生物富集因子(bioconcentration factor,简称BCF)来表达,这是化合物生态环境毒性评估的重要指标。为合理预测有机化合物是否易于生物富集,首先从美国环保局网站收集了624个具有不同BCF值的化合物,然后采用7种分子指纹结合5种机器学习方法(包括支持向量机、C4.5决策树、k最近邻法、随机森林法和朴素贝叶斯法),构建了化合物BCF的分类预测模型,所有模型均采用独立外部验证集进行验证。其中,使用Chemo Typer分子指纹结合支持向量机方法得到的二分类模型,整体预测准确度最好,达到了85.4%。通过采用信息增益、频率分析等方法,进一步确定了化合物中易于引起生物富集的关键子结构,包括芳基氯、二芳基醚、氯代烷烃等。研究中所用到的方法为有毒化学品的生态风险评价提供了良好可靠的预测工具。     

垃圾渗滤液与再生水生物毒性的体外检测方法应用

本文总结了近年来在垃圾渗滤液和再生水生物毒性检测方面的主要体外试验模型和检测方法,并整理了这些模型和方法在生物毒性评价中的应用.目前常用的体外试验模型包括人源细胞系、其他哺乳动物细胞以及微生物细胞,相比较而言,人源细胞系在检测结果外推至人体时具有更强的说服力,因而其应用最为广泛.体外检测方法可概括为细胞毒性、遗传毒性和内分泌干扰效应检测三个方面,其中内分泌干扰效应的研究较多集中于雌激素效应.最后,本文提出开发三维体外细胞模型、体外试验与化学分析相结合、全面分析内分泌干扰效应和建立成组体外试验体系是渗滤液和再生水生物毒性检测方法的发展方向.     

MASS BALANCE MODEL ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation.     

2015~2020年洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构及其环境影响因子

洪泽湖是南水北调东线工程的重要调蓄湖泊,在气候调节、防洪防汛等方面起着重要的作用.为研究洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构演替及与环境因子的关系,了解“十年禁渔”前洪泽湖生态系统状况,于2015～2020年进行了逐月监测.研究期间,总氮(TN)年平均浓度从2017年之后呈显著下降趋势,总磷(TP)和化学需氧量(COD)总体呈下降趋势,水温无明显变化趋势,水深和透明度从2015～2018年上升,之后显著下降.调查期间共鉴定有浮游植物8门102属310种,浮游植物优势门类主要包括绿藻门和硅藻门,其次为蓝藻门和甲藻门.主要优势属为栅藻(Scenedesmus)、直链藻(Aulacoseira)、隐藻(Cryptomonas)、小环藻(Cyclotella)、四角藻(Tetraedron)、微囊藻(Microcystis)和长孢藻(Dolichospermum).非度量多维尺度分析方法(NMDS)表明,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构组成在不同年份、不同季节和不同采样区域有显著差异,其变化主要是浮游植物的优势种属间再分配.NMDS分析结果显示,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构变化与水温、 TN、 TP、水深和透明度等因素有关...     

城市生活垃圾综合管理决策模型研究进展

生活垃圾综合管理模型已广泛应用于城市生活垃圾综合管理方案的制订.概述了国外用于城市生活垃圾综合管理决策的主要模型及其研究进展,包括费用-效益分析模型、生命周期评价模型和多目标决策分析模型.在分析国内该领域的研究现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了中国今后开展城市生活垃圾综合管理决策与模型研究的建议.     

江淮地区秋季一次典型污染过程分析

结合2018年10月15—20日国控站点监测数据、气象资料及激光雷达走航观测结果,对江淮地区一次重度污染过程进行了分析。利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模型和拉格朗日混合单粒子轨迹模型定性分析了区域污染来源,分别基于激光雷达和空气站实测数据提出了外来源占比的估算方法,结合嵌套网格空气质量预报模式(NAQPMS)的源解析结果,对比分析了外来源占比。以淮北市为例,结合NAQPMS和单颗粒气溶胶质谱的PM2.5在线源解析结果,对比分析此次污染过程的行业来源。结果表明,本地污染累积时段,主要以燃煤和机动车尾气混合源为主(占比>70%);受北方污染输送时段,机动尾气占比显著升高,从19.4%(16日00:00)升至66.7%(17日11:00),淮北市、蚌埠市、合肥市3个城市污染物外来输送占比分别为52.2%~70.6%、48.8%~58.8%、41.5%~59.0%。     

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire

Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling framework for simulating regional-scale smoke dispersion. We focus on a representative fire season (2003) in the northwestern USA, on a 12 km domain, and track the simulated dispersion and concentration of PM_2.5 over the course of the season. Simulated visibility reductions over national parks and wilderness areas are within the ranges of measured values at selected monitoring sites, although the magnitudes of peak events are underestimated because these include inputs other than fire. By linking the spatial and temporal patterns of haze-producing emissions to climatic variability, particularly synoptic weather patterns, and the stochastic nature of fire occurrence across the region, we can provide a robust method for estimating the quantity and distribution of fire-caused regional haze under climate-warming scenarios.     

Modeling Connectivity of Non‐floodplain Wetlands: Insights,Approaches, and Recommendations

Representing hydrologic connectivity of non‐floodplain wetlands (NFWs) to downstream waters in process‐based models is an emerging challenge relevant to many research, regulatory, and management activities. We review four case studies that utilize process‐based models developed to simulate NFW hydrology. Models range from a simple, lumped parameter model to a highly complex, fully distributed model. Across case studies, we highlight appropriate application of each model, emphasizing spatial scale, computational demands, process representation, and model limitations. We end with a synthesis of recommended “best modeling practices” to guide model application. These recommendations include: (1) clearly articulate modeling objectives, and revisit and adjust those objectives regularly; (2) develop a conceptualization of NFW connectivity using qualitative observations, empirical data, and process‐based modeling; (3) select a model to represent NFW connectivity by balancing both modeling objectives and available resources; (4) use innovative techniques and data sources to validate and calibrate NFW connectivity simulations; and (5) clearly articulate the limits of the resulting NFW connectivity representation. Our review and synthesis of these case studies highlights modeling approaches that incorporate NFW connectivity, demonstrates tradeoffs in model selection, and ultimately provides actionable guidance for future model application and development.     

Structurally-consistent estimation of use and nonuse values for landscape-wide environmental change

We address the problem of estimating the use and nonuse value derived from a landscape-wide programme of environmental change. Working in the random utility framework, we develop a structural model that describes both demand for recreational trips to the landscape's quality-differentiated natural areas and preferences over different landscape-wide patterns of environmental quality elicited in a choice experiment. The structural coherence of the model ensures that the parameters of the preference function can be simultaneously estimated from the combination of revealed and stated preference data. We explore the properties of the model in a Monte Carlo experiment and then apply it to a study of preferences for changes in the ecological quality of rivers in northern England. This implementation reveals plausible estimates of the use and nonuse parameters of the model and provides insights into the distance decay in those two different forms of value.