Animal models of fetal renal disease

Fetal models of urinary tract disease have been used for many years and have provided unique and important insights into the pathophysiology of these conditions. This review will summarize the principal model systems used and the current directions of investigation. These models (including rabbit, opossum, sheep and recently swine) have demonstrated that in utero obstruction of the urinary tract alters renal growth, differentiation and produces stereotypical patterns of tissue response, particularly fibrosis. New molecular understanding of these processes has identified specific mechanisms that may be key elements in the development of renal dysfunction due to obstruction. These factors include the renin–angiotensin system (RAS) and its interaction with TGF-β in altering growth regulation and tissue fibrosis. These factors offer the prospect of clinical utility as markers of disease progression as well as pharmacologic therapy. Gene knockout systems have opened a new horizon of molecular models of congenital obstructive uropathy with insights into the role of the RAS in particular. It remains to be defined how closely these knockouts represent the human conditions they resemble. Continued application of fetal models of urinary obstruction, integrating large animal and knockout systems offers promise for improved diagnosis and treatment in these challenging conditions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土壤氮素矿化模型研究进展

土壤氮素矿化研究对从农田生态系统氮素平衡到全球变化和环境问题均具有重要意义。土壤氮素矿化模型的研究方面．目前主要还是以简单功能模型模拟和预测氮素矿化量为主,以双组分一阶动力学模型和一阶-零阶混和动力学模型拟合效果较好;对机理模型的研究还处于探索阶段。从目前的研究看,土壤氮素矿化模型研究应当集中在建立机理模型以阐明主要生态系统的氮素矿化过程。     

A review of WTO and environmental issues

Multiple negotiating rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World Trade Organization (WTO) since 1947 have conferred economic benefits through liberalized international trade. A growing body of evidence also points to linkages between liberalized trade and damage to the global environment, ecology, and natural resource base. Ironically, the increased economic well-being conferred by trade liberalization ultimately provides the basis for improved environmental protection. It is the interim environmental damage due to trade liberalization that is controversial and needing amelioration. The proposition here is to promote further trade liberalization, but only as long as environmental ethics and sustainability issues are satisfactorily addressed. Trade liberalization should not be permitted at the expense of adequate environmental protection and sustainability. Future WTO rounds need to address both development benefits and environmental ethics issues in a net social welfare maximization setting.     

GIS与大气质量模型结合的探讨

从GIS与大气环境质量模型结合的必要性入手 ,对GIS在大气环境质量模型中的应用、所起作用进行了回顾 ,同时就二者结合的基本方式、步骤、框架等作了一些探讨 ,并指出了其未来的发展趋势。 更多还原      

A Review of WTO and Environmental Issues

Multiple negotiating rounds of the GeneralAgreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World TradeOrganization (WTO) since 1947 have conferred economicbenefits through liberalized international trade. Agrowing body of evidence also points to linkagesbetween liberalized trade and damage to the globalenvironment, ecology, and natural resource base.Ironically, the increased economic well-beingconferred by trade liberalization ultimately providesthe basis for improved environmental protection. It isthe interim environmental damage due to tradeliberalization that is controversial and needingamelioration. The proposition here is to promotefurther trade liberalization, but only as long asenvironmental ethics and sustainability issues aresatisfactorily addressed. Trade liberalization shouldnot be permitted at the expense of adequateenvironmental protection and sustainability. FutureWTO rounds need to address both development benefitsand environmental ethics issues in a net socialwelfare maximization setting.     

Situational awareness and safety

This paper considers the applicability of situation awareness concepts to safety in the control of complex systems. Much of the research to date has been conducted in aviation, which has obvious safety implications. It is argued that the concepts could be extended to other safety critical domains. The paper presents three theories of situational awareness: the three-level model, the interactive sub-systems approach, and the perceptual cycle. The difference between these theories is the extent to which they emphasise process or product as indicative of situational awareness. Some data from other studies are discussed to consider the negative effects of losing situational awareness, as this has serious safety implications. Finally, the application of situational awareness to system design, and training are presented.     

Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

Designing environmental monitoring networks to measure extremes

This paper discusses challenges arising in the design of networks for monitoring extreme values over the domain of a random environmental space-time field {X _ij } i = 1, . . . , I denoting site and j = 1, . . . denoting time (e.g. hour). The field of extremes for time span r over site domain i = 1, . . . ,I is given by \(\{Y_{i(r+1)}=\max_{j=k}^{k+n-1} X_{ij}\}\) for k = 1 + rn, r = 0, . . . ,. Such networks must not only measure extremes at the monitored sites but also enable their prediction at the non-monitored ones. Designing such a network poses special challenges that do not seem to have been generally recognized. One of these problems is the loss of spatial dependence between site responses in going from the environmental process to the field of extremes it generates. In particular we show empirically that the intersite covariance Cov(Y _i(r+1),Y _i′(r+1)) can generally decline toward zero as r increases, for site pairs i ≠ i′. Thus the measured extreme values may not predict the unmeasured ones very precisely. Consequently high levels of pollution exposure of a sensitive group (e.g. school children) located between monitored sites may be overlooked. This potential deficiency raises concerns about the adequacy of air pollution monitoring networks whose primary role is the detection of noncompliance with air quality standards based on extremes designed to protect human health. The need to monitor for noncompliance and thereby protect human health, points to other issues. How well do networks designed to monitor the field monitor their fields of extremes? What criterion should be used to select prospective monitoring sites when setting up or adding to a network? As the paper demonstrates by assessing an existing network, the answer to the first question is not well, at least in the case considered. To the second, the paper suggests a variety of plausible answers but shows through a simulation study, that they can lead to different optimum designs. The paper offers an approach that circumvents the dilemma posed by the answer to the second question. That approach models the field of extremes (suitably transformed) by a multivariate Gaussian-Inverse Wishart hierarchical Bayesian distribution. The adequacy of this model is empirically assessed in an application by finding the relative coverage frequency of the predictive credibility ellipsoid implied by its posterior distribution. The favorable results obtained suggest this posterior adequately describes that (transformed) field. Hence it can form the basis for designing an appropriate network. Its use is demonstrated by a hypothetical extension of an existing monitoring network. That foundation in turn enables a network to be designed of sufficient density (relative to cost) to serve its regulatory purpose.     

Use of Multispecies Occupancy Models to Evaluate the Response of Bird Communities to Forest Degradation Associated with Logging

Forest degradation is arguably the greatest threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and rural livelihoods. Therefore, increasing understanding of how organisms respond to degradation is essential for management and conservation planning. We were motivated by the need for rapid and practical analytical tools to assess the influence of management and degradation on biodiversity and system state in areas subject to rapid environmental change. We compared bird community composition and size in managed (ejido, i.e., communally owned lands) and unmanaged (national park) forests in the Sierra Tarahumara region, Mexico, using multispecies occupancy models and data from a 2‐year breeding bird survey. Unmanaged sites had on average higher species occupancy and richness than managed sites. Most species were present in low numbers as indicated by lower values of detection and occupancy associated with logging‐induced degradation. Less than 10% of species had occupancy probabilities >0.5, and degradation had no positive effects on occupancy. The estimated metacommunity size of 125 exceeded previous estimates for the region, and sites with mature trees and uneven‐aged forest stand characteristics contained the highest species richness. Higher estimation uncertainty and decreases in richness and occupancy for all species, including habitat generalists, were associated with degraded young, even‐aged stands. Our findings show that multispecies occupancy methods provide tractable measures of biodiversity and system state and valuable decision support for landholders and managers. These techniques can be used to rapidly address gaps in biodiversity information, threats to biodiversity, and vulnerabilities of species of interest on a landscape level, even in degraded or fast‐changing environments. Moreover, such tools may be particularly relevant in the assessment of species richness and distribution in a wide array of habitats. Uso de Modelos de Ocupación para Múltiples Especies para Evaluar la Respuesta de las Comunidades de Aves a la Degradación de Bosques Asociada con la Tala