Comparision of China’s volatile organic compound pollution management: a computable general equilibrium approach

The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound (VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China, arousing increasing attention to emissions control. In this context, this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies, namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels. It uses a computable general equilibrium model, which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory, to simulate the effects of policy scenarios (with 2007 as the reference year). This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods – the traditional approach to regulation in China – is applied. In order to achieve a similar reduction, an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed. It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy. Other policies, such as subsidies, should be used as supplements.     

城市景观生态网络规划的空间模式应用探讨

城市景观生态网络空间模式研究是生态城市和景观规划设计现今研究的重要领域之一,目的在于依据景观生态网络模式的应用建立起生态城市规划建设的基本框架和技术途径。在探讨城市景观生态系统特征和城市景观生态网络结构的基础上,总结景观生态网络空间模式并重点分析了水景树的空间生态模式、森林 道路 住宅复合网络模式、平原城市农田 灌木丛 河流交叉网络模式、岛屿城市的绿地 道路生态网络模式4种城市景观生态网络典型模式的图示特征及其生态意义。依此为理论指导基础,以都江堰为例,在继承都江堰大地景观格局并结合都江堰市灾后重建需求的前提下,研究都江堰市城市景观生态格局和生态过程,探讨在不同尺度和不同维度上运用4种网络图示进行都江堰城市景观生态网络优化调整的空间模式和对策。(1)依据“水景树图式”优化调整纵向维度景观生态格局;(2)依据“森林 道路 住宅”和“农田 灌木丛 河流”网络调整横向维度景观生态格局;(3)依据岛屿城市的“绿地 道路”景观生态网络调整城市组团景观生态格局.     

城市生活垃圾综合管理决策模型研究进展

生活垃圾综合管理模型已广泛应用于城市生活垃圾综合管理方案的制订.概述了国外用于城市生活垃圾综合管理决策的主要模型及其研究进展,包括费用-效益分析模型、生命周期评价模型和多目标决策分析模型.在分析国内该领域的研究现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了中国今后开展城市生活垃圾综合管理决策与模型研究的建议.     

GENERALIZED WATERSHED LOADING FUNCTIONS FOR STREAM FLOW NUTRIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Loading functions are proposed as a general model for estimating monthly nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. The functions have a simple mathematical structure, describe a wide range of rural and urban nonpoint sources, and couple surface runoff and ground water discharge. Rural runoff loads are computed from daily runoff and erosion and monthly sediment yield calculations. Urban runoff loads are based on daily nutrient accumulation rates and exponential wash off functions. Ground water discharge is determined by lumped parameter unsaturated and saturated zone soil moisture balances. Default values for model chemical parameters were estimated from literature values. Validation studies over a three-year period for an 850 km² watershed showed that the loading functions explained at least 90 percent of the observed monthly variation in dissolved and total nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. Errors in model predictions of mean monthly fluxes were: dissolved phosphorus - 4 percent; total phosphorus - 2 percent; dissolved nitrogen - 18 percent; and total nitrogen - 28 percent. These results were obtained without model calibration.     

多介质逸度模型的应用与展望

介绍了源于逸度算法的多介质逸度模型。该模型具有结构简单、所需参数少、容易计算、结果表示直观、其计算方法可推广到任意数目的环境介质、预测结果对环境监测和管理具有指导意义等优点。综述了逸度模型的理论基础及近10年的发展与应用情况,并展望了多介质逸度模型的应用前景和发展趋势。     

SENSITIVITY OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELS TO VERTICAL VARIABILITY OF AQUIFER CONSTANTS1

ABSTRACT: The Ogallala aquifer in the Oklahoma Panhandle is in need of better management because of increased groundwater demand which has caused declines in static water levels at an alarming rate. A groundwater management computer model was developed for the Ogallala aquifer in the Texas Panhandle and treats the aquifer as a homogeneous system. In this study, the computer model has been modified in order to evaluate the effects of vertical layering on semi-static water level changes which occur during the dewatering of a single unconfined aquifer. The modified model was applied to a study area near Guymon, Oklahoma, using both the homogeneous and the multilayered cases. The aquifer is characterized by a saturated thickness of 400 feet. The accumulated drawdown values of the homogeneous and the multilayered cases demonstrate that an average difference of approximately 22% of the original saturated thickness occurs between the two cases before the base of the aquifer is encountered. Approximately 25% more time is required to dewater the layered aquifer. Thus, vertical variations of lithology in an aquifer such as the Ogallala should be considered when prediction is made relative to groundwater management.     

国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述

国际上对土地利用/覆盖变化的研究由来已久,近年由于土地利用/覆盖变化对全球变化的贡献及响应,预测土地利用/覆盖变化成为必然。由此,越来越多的科学家致力于研究土地利用/覆盖变化模型,并取得了积极进展。论文介绍了目前国际上土地利用/覆盖变化模型的一些相关问题:①土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的尺度依赖性;②土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的数据问题;③预测土地利用/覆盖变化的位置与数量。回顾了已有的5种主要的土地利用/覆盖变化模型:①基于行为者的土地利用/覆盖变化模型;②经验统计模型;③最优化模型;④混合/综合模型;⑤动力模拟模型。最后总结了现有模型中存在的问题,并探讨了今后土地利用/覆盖变化模型发展的方向。     

生物滞留池用于城市雨水径流控制研究现状和展望

生物滞留池是一种采用分散方法,从源头削减雨水和控制污染物迁移的高效LID措施。从水文效应、水质处理及模型建立三方面回顾了国外生物滞留池的研究现状,对生物滞留池用于国内城市雨水径流控制展望如下:在满足水量负荷下对溶解性N和颗粒悬浮物去除的研究;生物滞留池长期运行稳定性研究,包括填料的二次污染和自然再生等;生物滞留池水力模型和水质模型的研究必须与理论研究相结合,以减少试验周期和优化试验参数。     

基于环境逸度模型的化学物质暴露与风险评估研究进展

工业化学品通过各种迁移转化过程后在环境区间中广泛分布,同时新化学品正被大量的生产并进入环境,使得对于化学品管控的需求和压力不断增加。基于这一背景,多国政府颁布了相应的政策法规对化学品进行管控。除了用相应的政策法规进行预先管控之外,使用基于逸度概念的多介质环境模型来表征化学品的行为与归趋是一个相对简单而有效的方法,不仅适用于环境中存在的现有化学品的暴露评估,也成为各国化学品管理中对新化学品的环境暴露进行预测的有力工具。本文综述逸度概念与方法、相关环境模型、建模过程、应用验证等方面的国内外研究进展,希望能够对我国化学品环境暴露评估与风险评估的模型构建、优化与方法应用提供信息和借鉴。     

有机化合物生物富集因子的计算机预测研究

有机化合物在生物体内的富集,通常用生物富集因子(bioconcentration factor,简称BCF)来表达,这是化合物生态环境毒性评估的重要指标。为合理预测有机化合物是否易于生物富集,首先从美国环保局网站收集了624个具有不同BCF值的化合物,然后采用7种分子指纹结合5种机器学习方法(包括支持向量机、C4.5决策树、k最近邻法、随机森林法和朴素贝叶斯法),构建了化合物BCF的分类预测模型,所有模型均采用独立外部验证集进行验证。其中,使用Chemo Typer分子指纹结合支持向量机方法得到的二分类模型,整体预测准确度最好,达到了85.4%。通过采用信息增益、频率分析等方法,进一步确定了化合物中易于引起生物富集的关键子结构,包括芳基氯、二芳基醚、氯代烷烃等。研究中所用到的方法为有毒化学品的生态风险评价提供了良好可靠的预测工具。