FLOOD PLAIN MODELING1

Computer simulation of river basin hydrology has rapidly progressed from an interesting academic exercise to a practical engineering procedure of increasing utility. Mathematical models of the many interrelated processes which occur in a basin have been developed along with efficient numerical procedures for their solution. The present paper is concerned with a particular model which has been used to describe the transformation of a temporally and spatially varying rainfall into a time history of stage and discharge on a flood plain. Although developed principally as a model of the physical processes involved, it is envisioned that the model can serve as one component of an information system for flood plain planning and management. The model consists of the following elements: (i) a rainfall simulation which generates stochastic inputs to the model according to specified rainfall statistics, (ii) a catchment-runoff model which converts the rainfall to surface runoff, (iii) a flood stage model which converts the surface runoff to time histories of flood stage and discharge. The model has been used to investigate the effect of various structural flood control measures in a basin and, in particular, to establish frequency-stage information for each of these. Of particular interest in development of the model have been recurring and partially unanswered questions relative to the proper balance among availability of data for use in the model, data requirements of the model and the objectives of the outputs produced by the model.     

Correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in single-vehicle crashes

Objectives: In order to improve motorcycle safety, this article examines the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists, under multiple precrash conditions. Method: Ten-year crash data for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the General Estimates Systems (GES) were analyzed, using partial proportional odds models (i.e., generalized ordered logit models). Results: The modeling results show that “braking (no lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of increased severity, whereas “braking (lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of decreased severity, under all precrash conditions. “Steering” is associated with a higher probability of reduced injury severity when other vehicles are encroaching, whereas it is correlated with high injury severity under other conditions. “Braking and steering” is significantly associated with a higher probability of low severity under “animal encounter and object presence,” whereas it is surprisingly correlated with high injury severity when motorcycles are traveling off the edge of the road. The results also show that a large number of motorcyclists did not perform any crash avoidance maneuvers or conducted crash avoidance maneuvers that are significantly associated with high injury severity. Conclusions: In general, this study suggests that precrash maneuvers are an important factor associated with motorcyclists' injury severity. To improve motorcycle safety, training/educational programs should be considered to improve safety awareness and adjust driving habits of motorcyclists. Antilock brakes and such systems are also promising, because they could effectively prevent brake lock-up and assist motorcyclists in maneuvering during critical conditions. This study also provides valuable information for the design of motorcycle training curriculum.     

南方某县居民尿镉浓度和相关影响因素研究

本文采用整群随机抽样的方法,抽取污染区、对照区10个村的1274个居民开展内暴露及问卷调查,通过采集这些居民的晨尿和10个村的土壤、大气颗粒物、饮用水、大米样品,对采集的所有样品进行了镉含量的测定.同时,将这些检测调查资料通过MLwiN 2.02软件进行多水平模型拟合,以评估南方某县污染区和对照区居民尿镉含量在不同水平之间的差异性,并找出影响这种差异的社会人口和环境方面的因素.结果表明,居民的尿镉含量在村和个体不同水平上均存在显著差异,其中,QL-3、FJ-4污染区人体尿镉含量明显高于其它研究区,远远超过其临界值.多水平模型的结果显示,土壤镉含量、大米镉含量、居民性别、居民的外出工作时长和居住地离污染企业的距离对居民尿镉水平有影响,而居民的年龄、涉镉工作时长、吸烟时长和在当地生活时长这4个因素对居民尿镉水平的影响差异没有统计学意义.与一般线性模型相比,多水平模型拟合的效果更佳.研究表明,多水平模型能够较合理地揭示居民尿镉水平的地区差异及社会人口和环境因素的影响.     

模糊数学法在兰州市地表水环境质量评价中的应用分析研究

根据模糊数学理论,建立了水环境质量模糊综合评价数学模型.选取兰州市地表水为研究对象,对兰州市地表水(黄河岸门桥断面)2009年-2014年全年各项水质平均值进行水环境质量评价,更加综合的评价兰州市地表水环境质量变化趋势及主要污染物,科学的分析兰州市地表水环境质量现状和存在的问题.结果表明:兰州市地表水2009年-2014年环境质量呈日益改善的状态,2009年-2010年兰州市地表水环境质量综合评价结果属于V类,2010年-2014年兰州市地表水环境质量综合评价结果属于Ⅰ类,水体中主要污染物为总氮.     

Development of pedestrian- and vehicle-related safety performance functions using Bayesian bivariate hierarchical models with mode-specific covariates

Introduction: Pedestrian safety is a major concern as traffic crashes are the leading cause of fatalities and injuries for commuters. Traffic safety research in the past has developed various strategies to counteract traffic crashes, including the safety performance function (SPF). However, there is still a need for research dedicated to enhancing the SPF for pedestrians from perspectives of methodological framework and data input. To fill this gap, this study aims to add to the current SPF development practice literature by focusing on pedestrian-involved collisions, while considering the typical vehicle ones as well. Methods: First, bivariate models are used to account for the common unobserved heterogeneity shared by the pedestrian- and vehicle-related crashes at the same intersections. Second, variable importance ranking technique is used, along with correlation analysis, to determine mode-specific feature input. Third, the exposure information for both modes, annual pedestrian count, and annual daily vehicles traveled are used for model development. Fourth, a recent Bayesian inference approach (integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)) was adopted for bivariate setting. Finally, different evaluation criteria are used to facilitate comprehensive model assessment. Results: The results reveal different statistically significant factors contributing to each of the modes. The offset intersection provides better safety performance for both pedestrians and drivers as compared to other intersection designs. The model findings also corroborate the sensibility of using the bivariate models, rather than the separate univariate ones. Practical Applications: The study shows that pedestrians are more vulnerable to various intersection features such as left-turn channelization, intersection control, urban and rural population group, presence of signal mastarm on the cross-street, and mainline average daily traffic. Greater focus should be directed toward such intersection features to improve pedestrian safety.     

Influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the frequency of vehicle crashes caused by driver inattention: A comparison between rural roads and urban roads

Introduction: With prevalent and increased attention to driver inattention (DI) behavior, this research provides a comprehensive investigation of the influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the DI-related vehicle crash frequency per year. Specifically, a comparative analysis between DI-related crash frequency in rural road segments and urban road segments is conducted. Method: Utilizing DI-related crash data collected from North Carolina for the period 2013–2017, three types of models: (1) Poisson/negative binomial (NB) model, (2) Poisson hurdle (HP) model/negative binomial hurdle (HNB) model, and (3) random intercepts Poisson hurdle (RIHP) model/random intercepts negative binomial hurdle (RIHNB) model, are applied to handle excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset. Results: The results show that RIHP and RIHNB models distinctly outperform other models in terms of goodness-of-fit. The presence of commercial areas is found to increase the probability and frequency of DI-related crashes in both rural and urban regions. Roadway characteristics (such as non-freeways, segments with multiple lanes, and traffic signals) are positively associated with increased DI-related crash counts, whereas state-secondary routes and speed limits (higher than 35 mph) are associated with decreased DI-related crash counts in rural and urban regions. Besides, horizontal curved and longitudinal bottomed segments and segments with double yellow lines/no passing zones are likely to have fewer DI-related crashes in urban areas. Medians in rural road segments are found to be effective to reduce DI-related crashes. Practical Applications: These findings provide a valuable understanding of the DI-related crash frequency for transportation agencies to propose effective countermeasures and safety treatments (e.g., dispatching more police enforcement or surveillance cameras in commercial areas, and setting more medians in rural roads) to mitigate the negative consequences of DI behavior.     

腈醛混合化合物对发光菌联合毒性的QSAR研究

测定了羟基乙腈与系列醛类化合物和对苯二甲醛与系列腈类化合物对发光菌(Photobacterium phosphoreum)的联合毒性，探讨了腈醛混合化合物对发光菌的联合毒性机制，并尝试提出了腈醛混合化合物对发光菌联合毒性的QSAR模型．结果表明，不同的腈醛混合化合物对发光菌的联合毒性不同，联合毒性的大小与腈类化合物和醛类化合物之间化学相互作用的程度紧密相关，采用QSAR模型TU=0．842—0．831σ。(n=8，r^2=0．803，SE=0．222，F=24．415，P=0．003)和TU=-0．348—8．450C^*(n=8，r^2=0．874，SE=0．219，F=41．730，P=0．001)分别定量描述羟基乙腈与系列醛类化合物和对苯二甲醛与系列腈类化合物对发光菌的联合毒性．模型具有较高的稳定性和预测能力．     

广东沼气农业模式的典型调查与思考

回顾了广东沼气发展历程,介绍了广东典型沼气农业模式,包括广东西南部丘陵区典型农户沼气模式,广东东部丘陵区典型农户沼气模式,广东东北部丘陵山区典型农户沼气模式,广东低洼地和积水区农户沼气模式,以及广东规模化养殖场沼气模式,并在此基础上分析了沼气农业模式的空间分布规律、沼气模式和经济发展的关系以及沼气发展的系统工程。     

A model of the emergence of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Scottish salmon farms 1996–2003

Infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) is an increasingly common pathogen in farmed Scottish Atlantic salmon; over 80% of marine sites are now infected, although most do not suffer clinical disease. The increasing prevalence of this pathogen in farms over the period 1996–2003 is modelled using a simple susceptible–infected (SI) epidemic model. Because salmon production approximately doubled over this period, population-dependent and -independent transmission models are compared. The model generates mean R₀ (increase ratio) of 1.41 in fresh and 1.45 in marine water farms at the national level; higher values apply with time under population-dependent transmission (1.58, freshwater, 1.80 marine by 2003). Regional differences in R₀ are mostly moderate, indicating similar regional processes in spite of substantial difference in prevalence. Prevalence of IPNV for marine sites was further increased by the use of smolts (young salmon) from multiple freshwater sources. The model suggests that prevalence is entering dynamic equilibrium and will stabilise or only increase slowly as population increases. Cutting freshwater transmission is the most effective single strategy at reducing IPNV prevalence, but a combination of strategies (including reducing the number of sources of smolts) is better and indeed is required for eradication. Eradication would require cuts in transmission of at least 30–45% and this is unlikely to be practicable.     

Bimodality of the combined removal and signs-of-activities estimator for sampling closed animal populations

The possibility of a bimodal log-likelihood function arises with certain data when the combined removal and signs-of-activities estimator is used. Bimodal log-likelihoods may, in turn, yield disjoint confidence intervals for certain confidence levels. The hypothesis that bimodality is caused by the violation of the equal catchability assumption of the removal model, leading to the combination of contradictory data/models in the combined estimator is set forth. Simulations exploring the effect of the violation of removal model assumptions on estimation and inference showed that the assumption of unequal capture probability influenced the frequency of bimodal likelihoods; similarly, extreme parameter values for probability of capture influenced the number of excessively large confidence intervals produced. A sex-specific combined estimator is developed as a remedial model tailored to the problem. The simulations suggest that both the signs-of-activities estimator and the sex-specific estimator perform equally well over the range of simulations presented, though the signs-of-activities estimator is easier to implement.