Plant uptake and transport models for neutral and ionic chemicals

BACKGROUND: Models for predicting uptake and transport of chemicals in plants are applied in pesticide design, risk assessment, and environmental biotechnology. OBJECTIVE: This review considers the theoretical basics of the most popular models, and discusses what they have in common. The line is drawn between models for neutral compounds, and models for weak and strong electrolytes. MAIN FEATURES: Neutral Compounds. Neutral compounds undergo only very few processes inside plants (lipophilic interactions, metabolism), in contrast to weak electrolytes. The models developed for neutral compounds are widely applied in the risk assessment of environmental contaminants, but are not of much use for weak electrolytes, such as pesticides. Weak electrolytes. A very important process for weak electrolytes is the 'ion trap', which traps chemicals that dissociate inside plant cells. This is considered in the popular models of Kleier, Satchivi and Briggs. Other relevant processes for electrolytes are electrophilic interactions, speciation and complex formation. None of the currently used models considers these processes. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of models for neutral compounds is satisfactory, but the prediction of electrolyte behavior inside plants is still quite difficult due to gaps in knowledge.     

MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity (5 pp)

BACKGROUND: Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. OBJECTIVES: MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites. APPROACH: Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data and conceptual understanding for risk arising from key toxicants in aquatic ecosystems and will be used for verification of various modelling approaches. CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVE: The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.     

珠江口区域海上溢漏污染物动态预测系统的开发与应用

为了对《珠江口区域溢油应急计划》提供决策支持,在国内外最新研究成果基础上,针对珠江口海域的环境特点研究开发了先进实用的“珠江口区域海上溢漏污染动态预测系统”,综合有三维潮流模型、三维溢油与化学品漂移扩散模型、溢油风化模型、应急反应模型、以及电子海图、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库等关键技术,能够快速准确地预测并可视化显示不同种类的溢漏油品、化学品在水面及水体中的漂移扩散范同和性质变化过程,还可以同时显示环境敏感区和应急人员设备分布等相关信息。经实际溢油案例应用表明,系统的预测结果与现场实际情况相符。此系统的成功开发应用将有效地提高对船舶污染事故的应急指挥效率。     

Comparative study of four QSAR models of aromatic compounds to aquatic organisms

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs)were developed for 43 aromatic compounds toxicity to Photobacterium phosphoreum and Daphnia magna based on four methods: octanol/water partition coefficient, linear solvation energy relationship, molecular connectivity index and group contribution. Through the evaluation of four QSAR methods, LSER was proved to be the best. And it applied to the widest range of chemicals with the greatest accuracy.     

北京市大气环境二氧化硫浓度分布初探

利用北京市大气自动监测系统冬季逐时二氧化硫浓度监测资料，分析研究了对数正态分布，Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，指数分布等常用分布模型对监测资料人布推迟合的适用性，并估算出各种分布模型的参数值。研究发现城区及高百分位数二氧化硫浓度频率分布符合Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，近郊及背景站的浓度分布符合常用的对数正态分布，二氧化硫浓度的频率分布不符合指数分布规律。     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

资源承载力监测——以西藏“一江两河”地区为例

对自然资源的无序开发和对生态系统的破坏制约了我国的可持续发展。资源承载力是描述地区发展受自然资源限制的重要工具,也是衡量区域可持续发展的重要依据。基于西藏“一江两河”地区县级统计数据,定量计算水、土和生态等资源承载力,并根据定量评价结果构建资源承载力监测体系并应用于“一江两河”地区。研究结果表明:（1）“一江两河”地区人粮关系趋于紧张,部分地区人口—粮食—土地矛盾突出,76.5%的县土地资源承载力下降,83.3%的县土地资源承载指数增长;“一江两河”地区各县（市、区）水资源承载力远大于实际人口,承载指数均小于0.05,但77.8%的县水资源承载力下降,县域承载指数均增长;各县生态承载力增长,承载指数下降,部分县处于生态赤字状态。（2）“一江两河”地区资源承载力的主要制约因素由生态承载力转变为土地资源承载力。2000—2015年,在“一江两河”地区资源承载力处于临界超载或超载的县中,对资源承载状态影响最大的资源承载力由生态承载力逐步转变为土地资源承载力。（3）“一江两河”地区资源承载力等级逐渐提升,可能带来的危害或负面影响程度降低。2000—2015年,资源承载力为三级（中度负载）及以下等级的县由15个（83.3%）降至3个（16.7%）。资源承载力长效监测机制的建立有助于明晰资源开发利用现状,科学利用区域自然资源,促进地区生态保护和可持续发展。     

基于GAM模型的太湖叶绿素a含量与环境因子相关性分析

随着富营养化程度的加剧,太湖近30年来水华频发.为了探讨太湖西部沿岸水华暴发与环境因子的关系,于2017年4月1-18日（当地历年蓝藻暴发早期）在太湖西部沿岸进行了密集原位调查.共采集样品72个,测定了水温、溶解氧、各形态氮、磷营养盐浓度以及风速等环境指标,并利用GAM（广义相加模型）定量分析了叶绿素a含量与各环境因子间的关系.结果表明:①叶绿素a含量波动幅度较大（17.10~795.89 mg/m3）,太湖西部沿岸带有明显的蓝藻水华暴发现象.②水温、风速以及硝态氮浓度与叶绿素a含量的变化显著相关（P<0.05）,各环境因子按其对叶绿素a含量变化的解释率排序为水温>风速>硝态氮浓度.其中水温是影响叶绿素a含量最为重要的环境因子,叶绿素a含量随着水温的升高呈现明显上升趋势.风速也是影响叶绿素a含量的关键因子之一,较低的风速（<3 m/s）有利于蓝藻的漂移集聚从而形成水华,引起叶绿素a含量的升高.研究显示,GAM模型较好地解释了叶绿素a的含量变化,模型总体解释度达到70.6%,可为太湖西部沿岸蓝藻水华早期的预测预警提供一定的基础支撑.