Neighborhood Conditions and Helping Behavior in Late Life

The purpose of this study is to develop and test a latent variable model that explores the ways in which social structural factors influence the amount of social support that older adults provide to their social network members. Neighborhood conditions play a key role in this conceptual scheme. The findings provide support for the following conceptual linkages: (1) low parental education is associated with low respondent education; (2) older people with less education encounter more economic difficulty; (3) greater financial problems are associated with living in a rundown neighborhood; (4) older individuals who live in dilapidated neighborhoods are more hostile; and (5) older adults who are hostile are less likely to provide social support to their social network members. Research indicates that helping others is a key to successful aging. Ways must be found to help economically disadvantaged elders provide support to their social network members.     

Predicting Recovery Criteria for Threatened and Endangered Plant Species on the Basis of Past Abundances and Biological Traits

Recovery plans for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act are required to specify measurable criteria that can be used to determine when the species can be delisted. For the 642 listed endangered and threatened plant species that have recovery plans, we applied recursive partitioning methods to test whether the number of individuals or populations required for delisting can be predicted on the basis of distributional and biological traits, previous abundance at multiple time steps, or a combination of traits and previous abundances. We also tested listing status (threatened or endangered) and the year the recovery plan was written as predictors of recovery criteria. We analyzed separately recovery criteria that were stated as number of populations and as number of individuals (population‐based and individual‐based criteria, respectively). Previous abundances alone were relatively good predictors of population‐based recovery criteria. Fewer populations, but a greater proportion of historically known populations, were required to delist species that had few populations at listing compared with species that had more populations at listing. Previous abundances were also good predictors of individual‐based delisting criteria when models included both abundances and traits. The physiographic division in which the species occur was also a good predictor of individual‐based criteria. Our results suggest managers are relying on previous abundances and patterns of decline as guidelines for setting recovery criteria. This may be justifiable in that previous abundances inform managers of the effects of both intrinsic traits and extrinsic threats that interact and determine extinction risk. Predicción de Criterios de Recuperación para Especies de Plantas en Peligro y Amenazadas con Base en Abundancias Pasadas y Atributos Biológicos     

Accuracy of Short‐Term Demographic Data in Projecting Long‐Term Fate of Populations

Short‐term surveys are useful in conservation of species if they can be used to reliably predict the long‐term fate of populations. However, statistical evaluations of reliability are rare. We studied how well short‐term demographic data (1999–2002) of tartar catchfly (Silene tatarica), a perennial riparian plant, projected the fate and growth of 23 populations of this species up to the year 2010. Surveyed populations occurred along a river with natural flood dynamics and along a regulated river. Riparian plant populations are affected by flooding, which maintains unvegetated shores, while forest succession proceeds in areas with little flooding. Flooding is less severe along the regulated river, and vegetation overgrowth reduces abundance of tartar catchfly on unvegetated shores. We built matrix models to calculate population growth rates and estimated times to population extinction in natural and in regulated rivers, 13 and 10 populations, respectively. Models predicted population survival well (model predictions matched observed survival in 91% of populations) and accurately predicted abundance increases and decreases in 65% of populations. The observed and projected population growth rates differed significantly in all but 3 populations. In most cases, the model overestimated population growth. Model predictions did not improve when data from more years were used (1999–2006). In the regulated river, the poorest model predictions occurred in areas where cover of other plant species changed the fastest. Although vegetation cover increased in most populations, it decreased in 4 populations along the natural river. Our results highlight the need to combine disturbance and succession dynamics in demographic models and the importance of habitat management for species survival along regulated rivers. Precisión de Datos Demográficos de Corto Plazo en la Proyección del Destino de Poblaciones a Largo Plazo     

Assessment of four turbulence models in simulation of large-scale pool fires in the presence of wind using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)

Pool fires are the most common of all process industry accidents. Pool fires often trigger explosions which may result in more fires, causing huge losses of life and property. Since both the risk and the frequency of occurrence of pool fires are high, it is necessary to model the risks associated with pool fires so as to correctly predict the behavior of such fires.Among the parameters which determine the overall structure of a pool fire, the most important is turbulence. It determines the extent of interaction of various parameters, including combustion, wind velocity, and entrainment of the ambient air. Of the various approaches capable of modeling the turbulence associated with pool fires, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has emerged as the most preferred due to its ability to enable closer approximation of the underlying physical phenomena.A review of the state of the art reveals that although various turbulence models exist for the simulation of pool fire no single study has compared the performance of various turbulence models in modeling pool fires. To cover this knowledge-gap an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of pool fires and find the turbulence model which is able to simulate pool fires most faithfully. The performance of the standard k–? model, renormalization group (RNG) k–? model, realizable k–? model and standard k–ω model were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Chatris et al. (2001) and Casal (2013). The results reveal that the standard k–? model enabled the closest CFD simulation of the experimental results.     

A Behaviorally Explicit Demographic Model Integrating Habitat Selection and Population Dynamics in California Sea Lions

Abstract: Although there has been a call for the integration of behavioral ecology and conservation biology, there are few tools currently available to achieve this integration. Explicitly including information about behavioral strategies in population viability analyses may enhance the ability of conservation biologists to understand and estimate patterns of extinction risk. Nevertheless, most behavioral‐based PVA approaches require detailed individual‐based data that are rarely available for imperiled species. We present a mechanistic approach that incorporates spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models used for conservation. We developed a stage‐structured matrix model that includes the costs and benefits of movement associated with 2 habitat‐selection strategies (philopatry and direct assessment). Using a life table for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we explored the sensitivity of model predictions to the inclusion of these behavioral parameters. Including behavioral information dramatically changed predicted population sizes, model dynamics, and the expected distribution of individuals among sites. Estimated population sizes projected in 100 years diverged up to 1 order of magnitude among scenarios that assumed different movement behavior. Scenarios also exhibited different model dynamics that ranged from stable equilibria to cycles or extinction. These results suggest that inclusion of behavioral data in viability models may improve estimates of extinction risk for imperiled species. Our approach provides a simple method for incorporating spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models and may be easily extended to other species and behaviors to understand the mechanisms of population dynamics for imperiled populations.     

水电工程抗震设防概率水准和地震作用概率模型

本文基于我国已有的二十余个重大水利水电工程场地地震危险性分析的结果,运用概率分析方法探讨了水电工程抗震设防的概率水准和地震作用的概率模型,以便为正在修订中的《水工建筑物抗震设计规范》提供依据。     

MODELING WATER UTILITY FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to present a theory and model for assessing the financial health of public water systems. Using financial information from 25 water utilities in Georgia, the paper seeks to identify the causal relationships between the financial performance of a water utility and its fiscal position. The need for a theoretical understanding of water utility financial health is the result of the increasingly stringent performance requirements under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The issue has become particularly important for small water systems that will be exposed to significant financial demands. A set of financial ratios were developed and tested in a model that was based on liquid asset theory. The model contained five variables designed to account for the size of liquid assets, current debt, cash-flow, and the level of expenses. The variables fit the need of water utilities: to provide an adequate level of operation and maintenance to meet current and future system needs as well as SDWA standards.     

INCOMMENSURABLES AND TRADEOFFS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Society has many objectives, many of which are not commensurable. This incommensurability problem is generally referred to as the multiple objective problem and leads to the notion of tradeoffs. Various approaches to calculating tradeoffs in water resource development have been advocated by several authors. Many have made errors in the context of the conceptural model presented in this paper. It is argued the correct framework for tradeoff analysis is the neoclassical economic model. The relevant tradeoffs, then, are really price ratios. These, in turn, must be calculated in such a manner as to allow comparison of product mixes where the expenditure on resources is the same. This is where several authors have erred. An empirical example which illustrates the correct application of the model is presented.     

DEMAND PROJECTIONS CONSIDERING CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations. The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time - by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses. While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generally.     

EFFECTIVE USE OF LANDSAT DATA IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi² (2.59 km²). For basins larger than 10mi² (25.9km²), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants.