EFFECTIVE USE OF LANDSAT DATA IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi² (2.59 km²). For basins larger than 10mi² (25.9km²), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants.     

Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction of Renewable Resources and Population Growth: A Focus on Long-Run Sustainability

Within the framework of a general equilibrium model we study the long-run dynamics of resources and population if the growth rate of resources and population and the share of labor devoted to production are adversely affected by resource scarcity. Our results show that sustainability, i.e. a positive value of resources and population in the long run, essentially depends on the level of per capita resources at which these feedback mechanisms become active. A detailed bifurcation analysis evidences the richness of possible long-run dynamics.     

多层栽培制度在提高热带退化土壤生产潜力方面的作用和机制

针对老胶园普遍存在的严重土壤侵蚀、肥力下降、胶乳产量低等现象,本研究结合胶园更新布置了四种PEMLU模式。几年来的试验结果表明,PEMLU模式中的FEF模式比对照减少径流量66.7％,减少土壤冲刷量65.1％,有机质从原来的0.536％增加到1.34％。四种模式增加凋落物累积量83—288％,并促进了胶树生长,开割前年均每公顷可增产值2830—6650元。WRT模式具有较强的抗灾能力。本文用FWBG模型对四种PEMLU模式进行了定量分析。结果表明,FEF模式具有最优的综合效益。WRS模式具有投资少、效益高的特点,适于大面积推广。     

Quantifying sediment-associated metal dispersal using Pb isotopes: Application of binary and multivariate mixing models at the catchment-scale

In this study Pb isotope signatures were used to identify the provenance of contaminant metals and establish patterns of downstream sediment dispersal within the River Maritsa catchment, which is impacted by the mining of polymetallic ores. A two-fold modelling approach was undertaken to quantify sediment-associated metal delivery to the Maritsa catchment; employing binary mixing models in tributary systems and a composite fingerprinting and mixing model approach in the wider Maritsa catchment. Composite fingerprints were determined using Pb isotopic and multi-element geochemical data to characterize sediments delivered from tributary catchments. Application of a mixing model allowed a quantification of the percentage contribution of tributary catchments to the sediment load of the River Maritsa. Sediment delivery from tributaries directly affected by mining activity contributes 42-63% to the sediment load of the River Maritsa, with best-fit regression relationships indicating that sediments originating from mining-affected tributaries are being dispersed over 200 km downstream.     

Risk models for wildfowl diseases

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of computer models, including artificial intelligence systems, in the context of risk assessment and management for wildfowl diseases. In particular, the paper focuses on avian cholera and botulism in U.S. wildfowl, which are a source of continuing concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Severe outbreaks occur frequently, and some have been estimated to claim the lives of as many as 300 000 waterfowl. A potentially valuable support to the USFWS would be a set of models that assist in recognizing situations with high risk of an outbreak, assessing the anticipated severity of an outbreak, and advising on possible preventive measures. The USFWS has already initiated development of several potentially useful models. This paper reviews these as well as other related efforts, within the overall context of risk management for avian botulism and cholera.     

AN EXPERIMENT IN DETERMINISTIC WATERSHED MODELING1

An experimental three-dimensional finite-difference watershed model in the form of a Fortran IV program was constructed. The model was an oversimplified one which divided the watershed volume into layers of cells which represented the overland flow, the vadose, and the phreatic zones. Water budget equations which utilized such formulas as Darcy's law and Manning's equation were applied to each interior cell. The resulting set of simultaneous equations was solved for heads at the end of successive time increments. This information was transformed to streamflow and other hydrologic output. Input was weather data, which effected appropriate adjustments in the cells representing the surface-water and vadose zones. After testing the model, it was concluded that this type of model is undesirably sensitive to cell size and length of time increment. In spite of the deficiencies of this primitive model, this general kind of approach to modeling seems promising, but it may be necessary to devise new transport equations which apply to more natural divisions of watersheds.     

EFFECT OF RAINFALL EXCESS CALCULATIONS ON MODELED HYDROGRAPH ACCURACY AND UNIT-HYDROGRAPH PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: Two methods of computing rainfall excess in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’flood hydrograph package (HEC-1), the Initial and Uniform method and the Exponential method, are compared to evaluate the effects on modeled hydrograph accuracy. Two computed unit-hydrograph parameters, time of concentration and storage coefficient, were also compared. Rainfall and runoff data from 209 storms in 32 gaged basins in Illinois were used to calibrate the HEC-1 model. Three hydrograph characteristics - sum of incremental flows, peak discharge, and time of peak discharge - were used to evaluate modeled hydrograph accuracy. Mean percent error for each basin and hydrograph characteristic was computed. An evaluation of the mean errors indicates that, although some bias in modeled hydrograph accuracy is evident, rainfall excess computed using either method results in a computed hydrograph accuracy that is within generally accepted limits. Application of a linear-regression model shows no significant differences in computed values of unit-hydrograph parameters.     

PREDICTING BASEFLOW ALKALINITY AS AN INDEX TO EPISODIC STREAM ACIDIFICATION AND FISH PRESENCE1

ABSTRACT: Regression models to predict baseflow alkalinity from basin hydrogeology were developed and verified for headwater streams on the Laurel Hill anticline in southwestern Pennsylvania. Predicted baseflow alkalinities were then used to estimate sensitivity to acidification and presence of trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations for 61 headwater streams. Sensitivity classifications were verified by surveying trout populations. Geologic variables relating to the carbonate rock burial depth, extent of carbonate rock recharge areas, and length of stream channel flowing through effluent carbonate rock outcrops were much more useful in predicting baseflow alkalinity than areal extent of carbonate rocks. Baseflow alkalinity was not well related to status of trout populations on these anticlinal basins, especially on noneffluent basins where bedrock dip exceeded surface slope.     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER PEAK BIOMASS OF FOUR SPECIES OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOPHYTA/CYANOBACTERIA) IN SWEDISH LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to develop models predicting the summer peak biomass of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae, Anabaena flos-aquae, Oscillatoria agardhii, and Microcystis aeruginosa in four Swedish lakes. These analyses suggest that while epilimnetic total phosphorus concentration is the principal predictor of their peak biomass, other factors such as station mean depth, water temperature, total nitrogen, and total CO₂ concentration are also important.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING LOW FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Four methods for estimating the 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 20-year low flows for streams are compared by the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a Monte Carlo technique in which random samples are drawn from an unspecified sampling distribution defined from observed data. The nonparametric nature of the bootstrap makes it suitable for comparing methods based on a flow series for which the true distribution is unknown. Results show that the two methods based on hypothetical distributions (Log-Pearson III and Weibull) had lower mean square errors than did the Box-Cox transformation method or the Log-Boughton method which is based on a fit of plotting positions.