西藏高原基础设施建设规划的生态风险评价——以西藏山南地区为例

西藏高原脆弱区内的基础设施建设对区域内的生态与环境产生了重大胁迫，因此在完成基建规划编制后，需要评估规划中潜在的生态风险。以西藏山南地区小康示范县为研究区域，对基建规划进行了生态风险评估，结果表明：（1）生态风险区和自然生态脆弱区呈带状分布，略呈对称形，但二者的强度分布相反；（2）基建对轻度脆弱区的干扰最为强烈，与雅江宽谷区的人口快速增长和社会经济最为活跃相对应，区内的灌丛草原和亚高山草原生态系将受到严重胁迫；（3）基建工程对土壤结构、植被、水土保持、高原景观和局部地质条件等构成很大威胁，道路、给排水和农牧水利工程的扰动面积较大；（4）生态与环境规划应当与基建规划衔接，要关注基建工程对区域景观格局及高原生态系统的长期影响，并提出相应预警措施。     

水权制度选择理论——基于交易成本、租值消散的研究

水资源配置大致存在完全政府配置、完全市场配置和准市场配置3种模式。中国正处于水权制度改革的过程中,水资源配置制度有从完全政府配置转向依靠市场配置的趋势。新制度经济学的交易成本理论和租值消散理论可以为新的水权制度的设计和选择提供依据。水资源的不同配置制度对应着相应的交易成本,相对较好的制度应该能在扣除交易成本之后获得较多的社会净租值。目前我国水资源管理的当务之急是根据经济理性,科学地界定好水资源的公有和私有权利,并由完全政府管制向市场体制转型。     

Access and Local Government Research: Methodological Reflections

Abstract

This methodological paper draws on research from Australia to examine the question of gaining access to local governments in undertaking work on natural resource management. It is argued that a range of macro-level changes have impacted on the local government sector in Australia, and these changes have rendered access problematic for researchers. These changes include an expansion of local government roles, an increase in financial pressure within the sector, a proliferation of audit measures across local governments and a low level of respect amongst local government personnel for academics and academic work. The paper concludes by identifying the reasons why understanding access in qualitative research on local government and environmental sustainability is important.     

In their words: How Detroit residents perceive the effects of their physical environment

Abstract

This article examines results from in-depth interviews conducted with parents of children with asthma living in an urban environment. We examine themes from the in-depth interviews related to participants' perceptions of the influence of their physical environment on their mental and physical health, and the actions that they take in an effort to protect their health within this context. The findings from this study suggest several implications for understanding the interface between the physical environment of urban communities and residents' health, as well as for the policy and practice of risk assessment strategies.     

Flood Protection: Highlighting an Investment Trap Between Built and Natural Capital

We present a simulation model developed to communicate a potential investment trap associated with using man‐made river engineering to protect built infrastructure. A small system dynamics model in STELLA? was constructed following a collaborative model‐building process to increase understanding among stakeholders of the role natural capital plays in wealth creation. We set out to explore the dynamic relationship between investing tax revenue in natural capital (specifically forested headwaters and low land wetlands) rather than built capital (specifically stopbanks) for flood protection in the Manawatū watershed, New Zealand. Significant investment is currently required to maintain and enhance river engineering infrastructure and keep pace with changes in the river's geomorphology. Viewed from a systems perspective, we suggest diversion of a proportion of existing funding into restoration of forested headwaters on steep slopes and restoration of functioning wetlands on floodplains could in the longer term provide an effective approach to flood protection. Co‐benefits of increased natural capital include the ecosystem services nutrient cycling, sediment capture, water purification, biodiversity, pollination, and cultural and recreational values. Overcoming an investment trap requires a longer term perspective. This simple model consisting of two feedback loops and two delays aims to contribute to an ongoing stakeholder dialogue concerning the Manawatū River watershed in New Zealand.     

基于排队论的反无人机集群武器部署优化方法

目的 对多层防线中反无人机集群武器进行部署,得到同时满足来袭无人机集群指定突防概率条件下防空武器总数量最小化和拦截成本最低化的部署优化方法。方法 立足我国当前军事形势,采用效能分析中常用的排队论模型,将来袭无人机集群中的每个作战单元视为泊松流,对多层防线层层建模。将防空武器总数量和防御成本作为优化目标,提出了最小防空武器总数量的“理想区”模型和最低防御成本的“最优解”。结果 根据模型求解得到了无人机集群通过各层防线时的未被射击概率、最终突防概率和突防后密度,得到了满足指定突防概率为0.1的条件下,防空武器总数量最小和防御成本最低的组合。结论 在本文案例中,随着中程、近程防空武器数量的增加,无人机集群突防概率呈现出“前快后慢”的变化趋势,当远程、中程和近程防空武器数量分别为1、5、3套时,防空武器总数量最小,对单个来袭目标防御成本达到最低,为89.2万元,并且满足不大于0.1的来袭无人机集群突防概率要求。     

环境规制、经济高质量发展与生态资本利用的空间关系——以北部湾经济区为例

生态资本利用的空间关系影响区域可持续发展。以北部湾经济区2006—2019年面板数据为例,构建空间杜宾模型研究环境规制、经济高质量发展与生态资本利用的空间关系,结论如下：（1）环境规制、经济高质量发展和生态资本构成三E系统。（2）生态资本利用存在显著空间正自相关关系。（3）生态资本供需、流量利用及存量占用与环境规制显著空间正相关,环境规制抑制了存量占用及资本供需和流量利用水平;与经济高质量发展显著空间正相关,经济高质量发展显著提高了资本供给需求与流量利用,也增大了存量占用。（4）交互效应显著抑制了两者对资本供需与流量利用的影响、抑制了环境规制对存量占用的影响,也促进了经济高质量发展对存量占用的影响。研究结论对区域生态资本管控有实际意义。     

人力资本对农业现代化的影响及动态转换实证

迈入经济新常态,农业现代化发展仍然是"新四化"中的薄弱环节与战略焦点。新时期如何推动农业现代化发展存在诸多争议,现有政策架构设计和任务聚焦虽然将农业现代化提到新的高度,但过多强调物质资本对农业现代化的推动作用,在"四化"同步新时期以及"谁来种粮"困境倒逼下政策效果并不显著,而且随着"四化"同步深化,这种不兼容性可能还会凸显。现实困境与制度背离催促政策调整和路径创新。为此,本研究从人力资本视角探求其对农业现代化的影响效应及其动态转换性,旨在对这种困境成因给予解答。基于相关量化数据,本文建立普通面板模型和门槛面板模型实证研究发现:我国省级样本跨期内,人力资本对农业现代化的影响效应显著为正,且相比其他变量其边际影响系数最大;人力资本对农业现代化的影响在不同人力资本积累水平和不同工业化阶段存在显著的动态转换特征:具体来说,随着人力资本积累深化或者说当人力资本跨越相应"门槛值"后其对农业现代化的影响强度亦会发生变化,但总体来说呈现"边际收益递减"规律。从工业化阶段层面来看,随着工业化阶段转变,人力资本作用与地位会愈发凸显,尤其是其跨越第三个门槛值后迈入第四阶段后,其对农业现代化的影响效应将达到最大。研究不但揭示了农业现代化发展的"人力资本之谜",也为"四化"同步新时期推动农业现代化发展和政策调整指引了方向。此外,从控制变量层面来,农业分工、农业结构对农业现代化影响显著为负,农业研发和工业化对农业现代化影响显著为正。最后,文章基于实证结论给出了相关政策建议。     

铅污染事故生态环境损失评估——以台州铅蓄电池企业为例

国内铅污染事故频繁发生,造成了严重的生态环境污染和人体健康损害。通过采用市场价值法、人力资本法和恢复费用法,对铅污染的生态环境损失进行了全面评估。以台州典型的铅蓄电池企业为例进行研究,铅污染总损失为121．83万元,其中土壤修复及监测费用占77.1％;人体健康损失占18．9％;农作物种植损失占4．0％。     

海洋环境承载力与生态补偿关系研究

21世纪是海洋的世纪,随着陆地资源的日渐耗竭,海洋资源的开发又成为新一轮的竞赛活动。本文以渤海为例,运用海域承载力与生态补偿2种理论探讨了在资源与环境成为制约经济发展两大瓶颈的条件下,如何在获取最大利益的同时保持海洋可持续发展,以期为海洋开发利用提供决策支撑。