关于我国首都迁址的再探讨

北京作为中国首都已经出现了许多不相适应的弊端,困扰着首都功能的正常发挥,而且这些问题呈进一步恶化的趋势。无论改都论、双都论还是展都论,都不能从根本上解决北京日趋集中的问题。从北京存在的一系列问题入手,指出了迁都的必要性;然后从迁都的历史可行性、经验可行性、经济可行性和操作可行性4个方面论证了迁都的可行性;运用定量与定性相结合的方法,构建理想首都区位模型,对迁都方位进行了选择。认为长江中游地区是建立新都的最理想方位,并从首都安全、定都成本和区位影响角度,分析了长江中游地区建设中国新都的不可替代的优势,最后还探讨了模型的计算尺度问题和迁都应注意的问题。     

Managing an Endangered Asian Bovid in an Australian National Park: The Role and Limitations of Ecological-Economic Models in Decision-Making

Should north Australia’s extensive populations of feral animals be eradicated for conservation, or exploited as a rare opportunity for Indigenous enterprise in remote regions? We examine options for a herd of banteng, a cattle species endangered in its native Asian range but abundant in Garig Gunak Barlu National Park, an Aboriginal land managed jointly by traditional owners and a conservation agency in the Northern Territory of Australia. We reflect on the paradoxes that arise when trying to deal effectively with such complex and contested issues in natural resource management using decision-support tools (ecological-economic models), by identifying the trade-offs inherent in protecting values whilst also providing incomes for Indigenous landowners.     

“双碳”背景下碳排放的边际外部性成本及最佳碳税的思考

气候变暖与环境恶化已成为人类生存和发展的重大威胁。鉴于碳排放具有负外部性,研究碳排放的边际外部性成本并探究最佳碳税,对于推进实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文通过构建一个无限期的多部门新古典增长模型,探究碳排放的边际外部性成本及其影响因素,并对最优的碳税政策进行思考。研究结果表明：当居民消费效用函数呈对数形式、大气损害与产量成正比、大气中的碳含量存在线性关系和储蓄率不变等假设条件成立时,碳排放的边际外部性成本与产出成正比,且比例只与贴现率、大气损害函数和大气中的碳消散结构有关。因此,在碳税政策的制定上,要坚持经济发展与生态环境保护并重,分阶段动态优化调整碳税税率：在高贴现率时期提高碳税税率,分行业施行碳税政策和补贴政策,同时为了避免经济社会遭受到较大的冲击,起初征收碳税时税率不宜过高;考虑不同体量企业收入差距和负担能力,采用累进碳税征收机制;分地区实施差别税率,统筹区域协调发展。     

Transportation energy in global cities: sustainable transportation comes in from the cold?

The energy, environmental and social benefits of sustainable transportation, i.e. public transit, biking and walking, have long been recognized but are now mainstream in global and local transportation policy debates. However, the economic value of sustainable transportation has always been seen as secondary, unless many external costs were included. The results of a new global study show that cities with significant sustainable transportation systems have reduced costs on road construction and maintenance; better operating cost recovery and fuel-efficiency; fewer road accidents and less air pollution. In overall terms, the percentage of city funds going to transportation is reduced. The data show that cities with the most roads have the highest transportation costs and the most rail-oriented cities have the lowest. Further, the most sprawling cities have the highest direct and indirect costs for transportation. Thus, strategies to contain sprawl, to reurbanize, to build new rail systems into car-dependent suburbs with focussed sub-centers, and to facilitate biking and walking, not only will improve energy efficiency but will reduce costs to the economy of a city. Strategies that build freeways and add to sprawl will do the opposite. Trends indicate that moves toward sustainable urban patterns are beginning. The need to operationalize sustainable transportation strategies in planning and engineering practice and in the politics of infrastructure funding remains a major challenge. Some cities are showing how this can be done.     

Refining the ecological footprint

Ecological footprint measures how much of the biosphere’s annual regenerative capacity is required to renew the natural resources used by a defined population in a given year. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) compares the footprint with biocapacity. When a population’s footprint is greater than biocapacity it is reported to be engaging in ecological overshoot. Recent estimates show that humanity’s footprint exceeds Earth’s biocapacity by 23%. Despite increasing popularity of EFA, definitional, theoretical, and methodological issues hinder more widespread scientific acceptance and use in policy settings. Of particular concern is how EFA is defined and what it actually measures, exclusion of open oceans and less productive lands from biocapacity accounts, failure to allocate space for other species, use of agricultural productivity potential as the basis for equivalence factors (EQF), how the global carbon budget is allocated, and failure to capture unsustainable use of aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems. This article clarifies the definition of EFA and proposes several methodological and theoretical refinements. Our new approach includes the entire surface of the Earth in biocapacity, allocates space for other species, changes the basis of EQF to net primary productivity (NPP), reallocates the carbon budget, and reports carbon sequestration biocapacity. We apply the new approach to footprint accounts for 138 countries and compare our results with output from the standard model. We find humanity’s global footprint and ecological overshoot to be substantially greater, and suggest the new approach is an important step toward making EFA a more accurate and meaningful sustainability assessment tool.

自然资源代际转移机制及其可持续性度量

自然资源是人类社会赖以生存和持续发展最直接的物质基础和能量源泉。本文在探讨自然资源代际转移动力机制的基础上,应用资源经济学和环境经济学原理,分析了对自然资源持续性全面度量的原理与方法。     

The Role of Institutions and Policy in Enhancing Sustainable Development and Conserving Natural Capital

The use and management of natural capital is critical in all nations, but especially so in poor nations. The role of institutions – chiefly, property rights and pricing systems for natural resources – is pivotal in achieving growth and improved distribution of income and wealth, in understanding environmental degradation, and in seeking improved policy. Particularly useful criteria and indicators of sustainable development relate to `green' output and productivity measures in which the depreciation of natural capital is being considered. Special management problems exist for `critical' components of natural capital to which variants of the precautionary principle must be applied to ensure that our heirs receive an undiminished patrimony.     

CAN STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ASSUME MORE OF THE COSTS OF WATER DEVELOPMENT?1

ABSTRACT As availability of funds in the federal budget for water development has decreased recently, pressure has increased for state and local governments to pay a larger share of the costs. In this situation a difficult question immediately arises-what is the capability of state and local governments to pay a larger share? Of course, there is no easy answer. Expenditures of public funds are policy outcomes of a government's political process in which political, economic, legal and other factors are involved in complex relationships. The traditional sources of capital funds for state and local governments include bond proceeds, tax revenues, and federal financial aid (state aid is also a major source of local government funds). The issuing of bonds is hampered by a variety of legal debt limitations, but there are means for circumventing the limitations. State and local governments vary widely in amounts of taxable resources available and in the extent to which these resources have been tapped. More effective use of revenue resources could be made in some cases. New sources of capital funds for water development ought to be considered-a fee on the use of water per se, for example. Costs associated with water use currently are imposed to cover development costs, but a state might impose additional use fees earmarked for a state water development fund.     

MODELING AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR PLANNING DECISIONS IN WATER RESOURCES EXPANSION1

ABSTRACT. Individuals and organizations concerned with the expansion of the facilities of a river basin (such as a river basin authority) need to determine optimal strategies of operation and capital investment. They also need to examine the sensitivity of whatever planning decisions are contemplated. This paper extends the applicability of an algorithm that had been previously applied to the deterministic river-basin expansion problem to include the feature of a sensitivity analysis. The algorithm, containing a partial enumeration search technique and a network analysis code, gave a construction sequence of reservoirs, canals, and treatment plants, and an operating policy that maximized the present value of net earnings consistent with certain underlying assumptions. A river basin was chosen that had an existing configuration of unregulated streams and rivers, reservoirs, canals and treatment plants, and sites for future additional facilities. A series of representative synthetic flow sequences, future demand profiles, interest rates and reservoir costs that served as inputs to or parameters in the system were each perturbed by various factors (for a total of 24 cases). The sensitivity studies showed that the immediate planning decision of what facility to construct next was insensitive to variations in future demands and costs and independent of later decisions. Thus, decision-making was adaptive in the sense that by always making the optimal proximate decision, the management of the river basin is optimized.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF DESALTING1

ABSTRACT The Office of Saline Water, which has federal responsibility for developing low-cost, saline sources of fresh water, has recognized the need for an improved method of forecasting the future potential of desalting in this country. The magnitude of the role of desalting will influence the plans of federal, state, and local water resource agencies and the research and development programs of manufacturers. A dynamic simulation model has been developed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. under contract by OSW to translate relevant factors of water supply and demand into a forecast of desalting potential. The model projects the needs for desalting in 20 hydrologic regions of the U.S. Model performance has thus far been demonstrated by the development of a forecast and a battery of related sensitivity tests. Current results indicate the following potential desalting capacities: 225 MGD in 1980; 2,250 MGD in 2000; and 7,000 MGD in 2020. Significant improvements in desalting economics promise to increase these potentials by a factor of four or five by 2000-2020. Model inputs and results are continuing to be refined. When completed, OSW will have a dynamic tool with which to guide its R&D program.