论北京城市建设的综合减灾问题

本文针对北京城市建设面临的自然与人为灾害背景,简要论述了北京地震、水灾、火灾及“新致灾源”的历史及现状,强调开展首都圈灾害研究及减灾规划设计的重要性,并提出了系统的减灾方略及相应的管理构想。     

Measuring implicit psychological constructs in organizational behavior: An example using psychological capital

Implicit psychological constructs are effective predictors of behavioral outcomes but are rarely used in organizational settings because of real or imagined problems with measurement validity and administration. To address these concerns, we present a means of assessing implicit constructs quickly and easily by using psychological capital as an example. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial cost–benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost–benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.     

我国纺织行业上市公司资本结构实证研究

资本结构是企业筹资的核心问题之一,上市公司资本结构是否合理直接关系到其企业价值最大化的实现.以纺织行业上市公司公开数据为样本,运用回归分析方法,分析影响我国纺织行业资本结构的因素,认为:资本结构与企业获利能力、资产担保价值正相关,与企业规模负相关,与成长性、实际税率相关不明显.     

Foraging in the seed-harvester ant genus Pogonomyrmex: are energy costs important?

Energy intake and expenditure on natural foraging trips were estimated for the seed-harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex maricopa and P. rugosus. During seed collection, P. maricopa foraged individually, whereas P. rugosus employed a trunk-trail foraging system. Energy gain per trip and per minute were not significantly different between species. There was also no interspecific difference in energy cost per trip, but energy cost per minute was lower for P. maricopa foragers because they spent on average 7 min longer searching for a load on each trip. Including both unsuccessful and successful foraging trips, average energy gain per trip was more than 100 times the energy cost per trip for both species. Based on this result, we suggest that time cost incurred during individual foraging trips is much more important than energy cost in terms of maximizing net resource intake over time. In addition, because energy costs are so small relative to gains, we propose that energy costs associated with foraging may be safely ignored in future tests of foraging theory with seed-harvesting ant species.     

Is Current Consumption Excessive? A General Framework and Some Indications for the United States

Abstract:  Many prior studies have explored the implications of human population growth and environmentally problematic technologies for biodiversity loss and other forms of environmental degradation. Relatively few, however, have examined the impacts of the level and composition of consumption. We offer a framework that shows how the level and composition of a society's total consumption relate to the uses of various forms of capital and to the sustainability of natural resources and human well-being. We relate the framework to two main approaches—top–down macro studies and bottom–up computer models—for measuring whether overall consumption in the United States satisfies a sustainability requirement. Existing top–down studies have shortcomings that bias their results toward optimism, and current computer simulation models, although strong on revealing biophysical outcomes, are limited in their ability to evaluate impacts on human well-being. Although some ambiguities arise in determining whether overall consumption in the United States is excessive, our conclusions regarding the composition of U.S. consumption are unambiguous. Distorted consumption patterns and associated production methods lead to excessively rapid natural resource depletion; greater conservation would yield gains to current and future generations that more than compensate for the sacrifices involved. Public policies that deal with the composition problem not only would help conserve natural resources and improve current welfare but also would reduce the costs of meeting the goal of sustainability.     

Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited

Although set-up costs are prevalent and substantial in natural resource extraction, it is known that a Walrasian competitive equilibrium cannot exist in simple extraction models with set-up costs. This paper demonstrates that this result is sensitive to the assumption of unlimited extraction capacity and derives sufficient conditions for existence. An equilibrium exists if extraction is limited such that each firm earns sufficient surplus to cover its set-up costs or if firms choose extraction capacity subject to non-increasing returns. The resulting competitive equilibrium price either grows at the rate of interest when total extraction is below industry capacity or is constant when industry capacity is fully utilized. In the equilibrium, identical deposits are opened simultaneously, and set-up costs for new deposits are incurred when the industry has excess capacity rather than when capacity is fully utilized.     

Sequential development and exploitation of an exhaustible resource: do monopoly rights promote conservation?

This paper explores the problem of sequential exploitation of exhaustible resources by a monopolist, when a setup cost must be incurred to access the next pool. Under certain circumstances, the monopolist will always follow a more conservationist path of extraction and delay the introduction of new resource pools compared to a social planner. However, with other forms of consumer demand, the monopolist may exhaust the resource more quickly, especially if many new options will follow. These results may apply especially to depletable resources like antibiotics or biotech products, for which significant research and development costs are required, followed by monopoly rights conferred by patents.     

Safety and Cost-Effectiveness of Clearzones in Rockcuts

Clearzones are a feature of modern highways that have a dramatic impact on roadside safety. The purpose of these unobstructed spaces is to provide an area where an errant vehicle can safely stop or the driver can regain control of the vehicle without striking a hazardous object like a tree or utility pole. Many clearzone alternatives (e.g., removing trees, installing traversable culvert openings, and installing guardrails in front of untraversable hazards) are relatively inexpensive in comparison to other roadway construction costs. Roadways passing through rockcuts present an unusual case where the construction cost of providing the clearzone is very high. This article examines different clearzone alternatives in rockcuts and compares the likely effect on safety and construction costs. A method is described for determining the rockcut width that best balances the cost of construction with the improvements in safety that would result from a wider clearzone in the rockcut.     

社会资本和环境资本在可持续发展中的作用

本文分析了经济、社会、环境体系中社会资本与环境资本对经济的影响,用可持续发展观点修正了传统的经济增长理论。