Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

Modeling Monthly Fluctuations in Submersion Area of a Dammed River Reservoir: A Case Study1

Lu, Haorong, S. Samuel Li, and Jinsong Guo, 2012. Modeling Monthly Fluctuations in Submersion Area of a Dammed River Reservoir: A Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐13. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12003 Abstract: Fluctuations in water submersion of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have not been explored in spite of their important implications for shoreline erosion and other undesirable consequences. This article aims to quantify the monthly fluctuations in response to changing hydraulic parameters and regional climatic factors. Flow velocity and water levels distributed along the 609‐km long dammed river reservoir are calculated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamics model. Evaporation of water from the surface of the reservoir is determined using mass transfer‐based methods. Calculated flow velocities and water levels compare well with field data. We show that the water surface slope decreases with rising water level at the dam, and decreases to almost zero during the winter months of water storage when the downstream water level reaches the normal pool level. The submersion area varies between 830 and 1,070 km² over the year or over 20% of the reservoir zone will experience the annual cycle of dry land and partial or complete submersion. These fluctuations are of relevance to shoreline management and to the prevention and restoration of shoreline erosion. Evaporation is estimated to fluctuate between 1,240 and 26,110 tons of water per month per kilometer length of reservoir channel; this can possibly affect the hydrological budget of the reservoir region. The simple methodologies discussed in this article can easily be applied to other dammed river reservoirs for submersion estimates.     

基于G1-VPRS-MIE多层次灰色理论的引水明渠运行风险评价

引水明渠的安全运行风险评价对减少和预防其在输水运行过程中的灾害发生、提高其在运营期间的社会经济效益具有重要的意义。为了对引水明渠在运行期间的风险进行合理赋权和评价,通过科学合理的方法构建了多指标参数的明渠运行风险影响因素指标体系,包括主体结构风险、自然风险、水污染风险、组织管理风险和运行调度风险5个风险因子子系统及20个二级指标在内的评价指标体系;运用G1和VPRS法分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,结合MIE理论优化指标权重;根据明渠工程的运行特点,选取多层次灰色理论计算引水明渠运行风险值,并根据相关规范和安全风险评价实践确定风险评价等级。将该模型应用于引大入秦工程中,结果表明:采用序关系分析法(G1法)和变精度粗糙集理论(VPRS)并结合最小信息熵原理(MIE)的权重确定方法(G1-VPRS-MIE),不但避免了层次分析法过度依赖专家的主观经验、克服了粗糙集理论在边界刻画的局限性,而且弥补了主观和客观方法相结合的不足;对于指标权重的确定更加客观合理,既能满足所得权重的客观性,也能保证评估结果具有一定的解释性,同时能够减少单一权重计算的偏差;多层次灰色评价模型对于引水明渠安全运行风险等级的确定较为有效,并得出其风险等级为中等偏高,与实际情况一致。研究成果为引水明渠工程安全运行提供了一定的参考,同时可为类似气候环境的引水明渠区域规划、设计、施工提供有效的借鉴。     

过水性湖泊水质长期演变趋势及驱动因素：以骆马湖为例

过水性湖泊——骆马湖是南水北调东线工程的重要调蓄湖泊,具有防洪抗旱、饮用水供给和生态维护等多种功能.为了解骆马湖水质演变及驱动因素,基于2009～2020年长序列逐月实测数据,结合1996～2008年历史资料,分析了骆马湖总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、高锰酸盐指数和氨氮(NH⁺₄-N)等指标的长期演变、季节动态和空间格局,探究了气象和水文因子对湖泊水质的影响机制.结果表明,近25年来,骆马湖水质总体处于Ⅳ～劣Ⅴ类.ρ(TN)变化明显(1.06～3.49 mg·L^-1),历经波动下降(1996～2002年)、显著的年际波动(2002～2015年)和显著上升(2015～2020年)这3个阶段,是骆马湖的主要污染因子.高锰酸盐指数显著下降(2.97～6.38 mg·L^-1),ρ(TP)和ρ(NH⁺₄-N)波动相对较小,分别介于0.024～0.076 mg·L^-1和0.11～0.69 mg·L^-1. 2017～2020年夏...     

南京市内河道沉积物中重金属元素形态及Pb稳定同位素组成

采集南京市居住和商业区内的河道沉积物,研究重金属元素的形态分布及Pb稳定同位素组成,探讨城市河道沉积物中重金属的迁移潜力和推断污染特征. 沉积物中重金属改良的BCR三步顺序提取研究表明,沉积物中Cd和Zn主要分布于酸溶态;Pb和Cu主要分布于可氧化态;Ni和Cr主要分布于残渣态. Cd和Zn的环境效应最值得关注,而Ni和Cr环境影响最小. 沉积物中m(208Pb)/m(206Pb)和m(206Pb)/m(207Pb)分别为2.102 4～2.123 9和1.159 3～1.184 5. 居住和商业区内的河道沉积物Pb稳定同位素组成相近,具有相似污染源. 居住和商业区内沉积物的Pb稳定同位素比率与文献中南京大气、城市土壤Pb稳定比率相似,因而河道沉积物重金属富集与城市重金属污染密切相关.      

The Potential for Species Conservation in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract: In the wake of widespread loss of old‐growth forests throughout the tropics, secondary forests will likely play a growing role in the conservation of forest biodiversity. We considered a complex hierarchy of factors that interact in space and time to determine the conservation potential of tropical secondary forests. Beyond the characteristics of local forest patches, spatial and temporal landscape dynamics influence the establishment, species composition, and persistence of secondary forests. Prospects for conservation of old‐growth species in secondary forests are maximized in regions where the ratio of secondary to old‐growth forest area is relatively low, older secondary forests have persisted, anthropogenic disturbance after abandonment is relatively low, seed‐dispersing fauna are present, and old‐growth forests are close to abandoned sites. The conservation value of a secondary forest is expected to increase over time, as species arriving from remaining old‐growth forest patches accumulate. Many studies are poorly replicated, which limits robust assessments of the number and abundance of old‐growth species present in secondary forests. Older secondary forests are not often studied and few long‐term studies are conducted in secondary forests. Available data indicate that both old‐growth and second‐growth forests are important to the persistence of forest species in tropical, human‐modified landscapes.     

TEN YEARS OF VEGETATION SUCCESSION ON A DEBRIS‐FLOW DEPOSIT IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: We tracked vegetation succession on a debris‐flow deposit in Oregon's Coast Range to examine factors influencing the development of riparian plant communities following disturbance. Plots were stratified across five areas of the deposit (bank slump, seep, upper and lower sediment wedge, log jam) the first growing season after debris flow. At six times during the next ten years we estimated cover of vascular plants and tallied density of woody plants. Plant colonization occurred within two years. Total cover increased two‐to seven‐fold on the five areas within three years. Red alder and salmonberry were the dominant species, although weedy herbs persisted where woody species were lacking. Ordination of cover data showed that the five areas remained floristically distinct over time, while undergoing similar shifts related to the increasing dominance of alder and salmonberry. Rapid height growth of alder allowed it to outcompete salmonberry and effectively capture most areas by the tenth year, even where sprouts from transported rhizomes gave salmonberry an early advantage. Our results suggest that successional patterns were influenced by substrate variability, species composition of initial colonizers, propagule sources and their distribution, and species life‐history traits such as growth rate, competitive ability, and shade tolerance.     

EVALUATION OF THE ROSGEN STREAM CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM IN CHEQUAMEGON‐NICOLET NATIONAL FOREST,WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: Data collected from 121 stream reaches during 1991 to 1993 were evaluated to determine the applicability of the Rosgen Stream Classification System (RSCS) to the low relief terrain within the Chequamegon‐Nicolet National Forest (CNNF) in Wisconsin, USA. All reaches were classified to RSCS Level I and II except that 10.7 percent had sinuosities below the continuum limits and one reach had a predominantly organic substrate. Five of eight possible RSCS Level I types were observed including B, C, D, A, E, and F; 86 percent were C and E types. Seventeen of 94 possible RSCS Level II types were observed. Most reaches were slightly entrenched, had low to moderate width/depth ratios, relatively low sinuosity, low slope, and sand or gravel as the dominant channel material. Discriminant analyses were used to verify the applicability of RSCS for streams within the CNNF; discriminant functions correctly classified 92.5 and 94.7 percent of the Level I and II RSCS types, respectively. When limits for E and F types were modified slightly at Level II by adding an additional category for slopes less than 0.1 percent (a modification we recommend for low relief terrain), discriminant functions correctly classified 99.1 percent of the types. Adding another slope break at 0.3 percent produced similar results. Based on our analyses, RSCS works well within the CNNF and is probably applicable to other areas with low‐relief terrain.     

The Dynamics of Species Composition and Abundance of Wasps from the Families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae (Hymenoptera: Aculeata) in Successional Pine Biogeocenoses of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve

The data on the dynamics of population size and species composition of wasps from the families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae were obtained in the course of long-term studies carried out in successional pine forests of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve. The abundance and species diversity of wasps were significantly higher in a polewood forest (40 years) than in a young forest (20 years) and mature moss forest (70 years). In an overgrown ride in the moss pine forest, the composition of dominant wasp species remained relatively stable during the seven-year period of observations, although the number of species and their abundance varied significantly from year to year, depending on the weather.     

NATURAL RESTABILIZATION OF STREAM CHANNELS IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channels are known to change their form as a result of watershed urbanization, but do they restabilize under subsequent conditions of constant urban land use? Streams in seven developed and developing watersheds (drainage areas 5–35 km²) in the Puget Sound lowlands were evaluated for their channel stability and degree of urbanization, using field and historical data. Protocols for determining channel stability by visual assessment, calculated bed mobility at bankfull flows, and resurveyed cross‐sections were compared and yielded nearly identical results. We found that channel restabilization generally does occur within one or two decades of constant watershed land use, but it is not universal. When (or if) an individual stream will restabilize depends on specific hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics of the channel and its watershed; observed stability is not well predicted by simply the magnitude of urban development or the rate of ongoing land‐use change. The tendency for channel restabilization suggests that management efforts focused primarily on maintaining stability, particularly in a still‐urbanizing watershed, may not always be necessary. Yet physical stability alone is not a sufficient condition for a biologically healthy stream, and additional rehabilitation measures will almost certainly be required to restore biological conditions in urban systems.