基于MORT的民用机场安全管理评价方法研究

为管控民用机场运行风险,保障人民生命和财产安全,针对民用机场安全管理现状,提出应用MORT方法构建安全管理评价框架。通过层次分析来量化MORT-M分枝(管理控制因素)中各事件权重,建立了一套民用机场安全管理评价指标。     

关于完善《中华人民共和国基本医疗卫生与健康促进法（草案三次审议稿）》的思考与建议:基于劳动力健康视角

基于劳动力健康视角,研究近期公开征求意见的《中华人民共和国基本医疗卫生与健康促进法(草案三次审议稿)》,为进一步完善提供技术支撑。依据循证决策的原理,针对法律草案的相关内容,梳理研究涉及劳动力人群和职业健康的国内外法律和实践。研究结果表明:保障劳动力健康的有关表述,在法律草案的总则、基本医疗卫生服务、医疗卫生机构、医疗卫生人员、健康促进5章仍需要强化,为此提出了14条具体建议和修改意见。     

Blood alcohol concentration in fatally injured drivers and the efficacy of alcohol policies of the new law on road traffic safety: A retrospective 10-year study in autonomous province of Vojvodina,Republic of Serbia

Objective: The aim of this study was primarily to evaluate inebriated fatally injured drivers (FIDs) according to blood alcohol concentration (BAC) in a 10-year period (2004–2013) in Autonomous Province (AP) of Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia, to analyze the efficacy of alcohol polices in the new law on road traffic safety through changes in the number of inebriated FIDs before and after implementation of the law, as well as to identify factors that influence the occurrence of FIDs with BACs above the legal limit.

Methods: All data for this retrospective study were obtained from the Centre of Forensic Medicine, Toxicology and Molecular Genetics of Clinical Centre of Vojvodina, Novi Sad. Autopsy records for each case included age, gender, BAC, type of vehicle, and date of accident (year, month, and recalculated day of the week). BAC was determined by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection. Statistical analysis was carried out by chi-square tests and Student's t test, with P < .05 as a statistical significance, and multiple binary logistic regression.

Results: Of the 354 inebriated FIDs (60% of all FIDs), the majority had BACs between of 0.031 and 0.3 mg/ml (28%), followed by those with BAC > 2.01 mg/ml (23%). The average BAC of those driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) for the whole period was 1.235 ± 1.00 mg/ml and the average number of DUIA/year was 35. Among the total number of FIDs there were significantly more males (93.7%; P < .001) than females (6.3%), though the distribution of intoxicated men and women was not different (P > .05). There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of sober and inebriated FIDs according to age (P < .001) with the predominance of inebriated FIDs between 21 and 30 years. Although gender and age were found to be significant predictors of BAC above legal limit in FIDs, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve showed that the model had poor discrimination (ROC = 0.673). Of all observed FIDs, 65 cases per year were attributed to the first 5-year period (2004–2009) and 49 to the second 5-year (2010–2013) period, which indicates that there was no statistically significant decrease in the number of FIDs after implementation of the new law.

Conclusion: The highest number of intoxicated FIDs during the period in AP Vojvodina were mildly and completely inebriated. In the 4-year post-policy period (2010–2013), the number of FIDs and average BAC levels of inebriated FIDs did not significantly change. The abolition of a permissible BAC should be considered.     

民航安全信息个体自愿报告意愿的影响因素研究

在前人研究成果的基础上,选择认知水平、同事顾虑、上级领导抵触、利己考虑、集体考虑、系统本身、安全文化7个影响因素,并依据SCASS分类标准,将上报意愿分为6个维度(报告提交经验、航空器不良运行或设备缺陷报告提交意愿、自身违规差错报告提交意愿、空防安全事件或隐患报告提交意愿、执行标准或飞行程序困难事件报告提交意愿、同事发生此类事件报告提交意愿),构建并验证个体自愿上报意愿的影响因素模型。研究发现,各类事件上报意愿分别受到不同的因素影响,其中,认知水平和安全文化对上报意愿起到正向影响,其他影响因素起到负向影响。本研究为民航单位针对性提高员工上报意愿提供理论指导。     

民用飞机机载设备振动试验要求和应用分析(一) DO 160F/G民用固定翼飞机机载设备振动试验要求

阐述了民用飞机机载设备振动环境的特点和振动试验分类,归纳和汇总了DO 160F/G中的各类民用飞机机载设备的振动试验要求,包括振动谱、振动量值和试验持续时间等,并进行了分析和说明,以便于查阅和使用。最后对民用飞机机载设备振动试验方法的应用进行了概括,介绍了民用固定翼飞机的机载设备振动试验要求,按设备在机上的区域不同进行分类,详细地对比说明各个位置上设备的振动试验要求;介绍了民用直升机的机载设备振动试验要求。     

民用飞机机载设备振动试验要求和应用分析（二）

阐述了民用飞机机载设备振动环境的特点和振动试验分类,归纳和汇总了DO 160 F/G中的各类民用飞机机载设备的振动试验要求,包括振动谱、振动量值和试验持续时间等,并进行了分析和说明,以便于查阅和使用。最后对民用飞机机载设备振动试验方法的应用进行了概括,介绍了民用固定翼飞机的机载设备振动试验要求,按设备在机上的区域不同进行分类,详细地对比说明各个位置上设备的振动试验要求;介绍了民用直升机的机载设备振动试验要求。     

The influence of alcohol on pedestrians: A different approach to the effectiveness of the new traffic safety law

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the new traffic safety law on pedestrian mortality by exploring hazardous behaviors of pedestrians in terms of alcohol use and blood alcohol concentration (BAC).

Methods: A retrospective autopsy study was performed, covering a 7-year period (from 2006 to 2012), including cases of fatally injured pedestrians who died at the scene of the incident. Blood samples obtained from the femoral vein during autopsy were analyzed for BAC. The entire sample was divided into 2 groups. The first included cases from 2006 to 2009, at which time the old traffic safety law was in force, and the second included cases from 2010 to 2012, under the new traffic safety law.

Results: A total of 247 cases were examined, covering a 7-year period. The average age was 57.5 ± 19.7 years (median 61.0 years) with a significant male predominance of 147 men to 100 women. This predominance also applied to alcohol use (54 vs. 13). The results show a significant decrease in the total annual number of fatally injured pedestrians, starting from 2009, compared to previous years, reaching a low in 2010, one year after implementation of the new traffic safety law. In contrast, the proportion of alcohol-intoxicated pedestrians showed no significant difference in the years preceding and following the new traffic safety law, nor did the annual distribution of BAC or mean BAC before and after application of the new law.

Conclusion: The present study indicates that the new traffic safety law has been quite effective in reducing pedestrian mortality. However, alcohol consumption and intoxication in pedestrians remains a fairly important factor in motor vehicle accidents involving pedestrians, because the proportion of pedestrians positive for alcohol, the proportion of severely intoxicated pedestrians with BAC > 1 g/L, and annual mean BAC have remained unchanged.     

民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型

为了识别民航不安全事件的发生原因,从民航不安全事件报告出发,提出了一种基于LDA主题模型和Word2Vec模型的民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型。首先,构建危险源标签分类表,选取民航不安全事件报告与Wiki中文数据库作为数据源,然后利用LDA主题模型得出民航不安全事件报告的主题概率分布与词概率分布,最后利用Wiki中文数据库训练Word2Vec模型得到词向量,进而计算文档主题与不同危险源标签之间的相似度,得出民航不安全事件报告的危险源分类。结果表明,该模型的精准率为77.7%、召回率为86.8%、F为82.0%,能够有效识别各民航不安全事件报告的危险源。     

一种新的飞行事故征候率监视与控制方法

为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段,探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。通过采用W检验法,对中国民航2008年各月飞行事故征候率统计数据进行正态分布拟合优度检验。结果表明:在10%的显著水平下,飞行事故征候率总体服从正态分布。假设正常情况下,飞行事故征候率超过警戒值的概率仅为0.1%,选择该概率为确定警戒值的标准。根据前一年12个月的飞行事故征候率统计数据和确定警戒值的标准,以子样均值作为母体均值估计量,子样无偏方差的平方根作为母体标准差的估计量,可计算出当年飞行事故征候率警戒值;此外,还提出了控制民用航空安全水平的准则。     

不同规模民用机场项目主要环境影响对比分析

按照在民航运输系统中所起的作用划分，我国民用机场可分为枢纽机场、干线机场和支线机场。由于建设规模、航空业务量不同，各类机场环境影响的范围、程度和特点也不尽相同。通过对国内机场建设项目环境影响的案例和相关研究成果进行总结，从声环境、环境空气、生态、水环境、固体废物等方面对比分析了不同规模机场的环境影响的特点，为机场选址、设计、规划等提供参考。