民航事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测

民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容.掌握民航事故征候的发展状况并据此提出相应的安全措施,可减少民航事故的发生.在民航事故征候灰色预测基础上,引入马尔可夫链(Markov Chains)预测理论,建立事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型.该模型具有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,不仅提高了对波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围.对某一航空公司过载大事件的灰色马尔可夫预测和检验分析表明,事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度.研究表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航事故征候的预测.     

法治国家和风险社会理念下的环境治理机制

面对现代环境问题,我国环境治理需要以法治国家和风险社会理念为基础进一步完善。法治国家要求立法、行政与司法的长期稳定、系统有效运作,而风险管理需要以科学技术进步为基础,对风险有及时认知和科学评估,两方面都是人类社会可持续发展的理念支撑。现代环境行政法首先强化了直接行政监管,不断加强对私权干涉的程度,而且扩展了现代环境规划制度,还创新了环境影响评估制度,同时针对现代环境问题的源头:经济上的外部性,针对性采取多种经济手段。此外在风险沟通和信息公开以及加强程序性权利上,公众参与制度进一步得到细化。这些环境治理行政手段既继承了国家传统行政机制,又都基于法治国家与风险管理理念予以补充,以更有效地、针对性地实现现代环境保护。     

两型社会下人居环境的全过程优化研究与实践——以室内空气质量优化为例

结合中国住宅室内装修污染现状,在当前日益注重室内空气品质的趋势下,通过全过程控制室内空气污染,对现有的室内污染物控制方式进行优化,从而有效保证室内空气品质,打造安全、健康、环保的绿色人居环境。     

低碳城市发展实践与发展模式

气候变化问题是本世纪人类面临的最严峻的挑战之一,发展低碳经济为应对气候变化提供了新的机遇。低碳城市是低碳经济的主要组成部分,国内已有许多城市提出建设低碳城市的构想并进行了一些尝试,然而发展低碳城市的高度热情背后,存在着一定的盲目性和无序性,城市需要依据自身发展特征选择适宜的低碳发展模式。本文在对国际低碳城市发展实践和国内城市的相关探索进行综述的基础上,总结出现有低碳城市实践所遵循的四种发展模式,包括综合型"低碳社会"目标模式和低碳产业拉动、"低碳支撑产业"、示范型"以点带面"三种过渡模式。中国需要探索一条工业化进程中的低碳转型路径。低碳城市的建设需本着发展优先的原则,重点关注经济结构的调整,并在结构调整过程中探索新的经济增长点。现阶段城市可以通过建设低碳示范区摸索转型经验。低碳产业拉动和"低碳支撑产业"模式的选择则需要因地制宜。而无论采用何种过渡模式,城市都应注重低碳理念在全社会的渗透,以长远的战略眼光辅以合理的城市规划向综合型"低碳社会"的目标迈进。     

论人类文明的演变与演替

本文从整体论视角出发,从讨论文明的概念和表现入手,对"文明"和"社会"的定义进行了新界定。文明是指人群在特定历史时期的生存方式以及居主导地位的主流价值观。文明的实质是人类(社会)对人与自然关系的看法和对待,或者说是认识和行为。在此基础上分析了人类文明演变的历程和今后的走向,剖析了人类的生存方式(人类的生活方式、人类的生产方式和人群的组织方式)在原始文明阶段、农业文明阶段、工业文明阶段的不同样式,提出了当今人类正处于由工业文明时代向新的环境文明时代转折的过渡阶段的论断。正确认识人类文明演变和演替的规律对任何一个国家和民族来说都是至关重要的。要实现中华民族的伟大复兴,就必须清楚地认识到当今人类所处时代的特点,特别是要对当今人类文明的演变与演替有一个正确的认识和把握。     

面向对象思想在民用机场危险源辨识中的应用

运用现代安全科学的观点,提出基于认知程度的危险源分类方法,即未知危险源、已知有效管控危险源、已知未有效管控危险源。针对民用机场风险管理过程中,辨识的方法标准不统一、辨识对象的主体单一、辨识的结果口径内容泛失科学性等问题,借鉴面向对象思想的分析思路,试图解决危险源辨识工作不易把握的问题,并在具体实现上进行相应的论述,完成面向对象的危险源辨识模板类的构建。实证结果,验证了面向对象思路的可行性,为民用机场的安全风险管理工作提供了一种新方法。     

民航机务维修系统安全风险监测

从人的因素、飞机的因素、环境因素和管理因素4方面分析了民航机务维修系统安全风险影响因素,结合专家调查意见建立了机务维修系统安全风险监测指标体系,并给出各个指标的含义及其衡量方法。根据机务维修系统安全风险指标及其数据特点,建立了行业机务维修系统安全风险模糊综合评价模型,并进行实例分析。结果表明,采用笔者建立的指标体系和风险模型可以方便地进行机务维修系统的安全风险评价和预警,从而找出主要的安全风险影响因素,为采取安全风险管理措施提供依据。     

空中交通管制员职业素质模糊综合评价

提出一种管制员综合素质的评价方法;构建管制员综合素质评价指标体系和模糊综合评价模型;应用专家打分法确定指标的权重判断矩阵数据和隶属度数据;采用层次分析法对判断矩阵进行处理得到指标权重数据;按照评价模型的程序对权重数据和隶属度数据进行处理,最终得到管制员综合素质的评价值,根据评价结果提出了提高管制员综合素质的对策。     

Institutional development for sustainable rangeland resource and ecosystem management in mountainous areas of northern Nepal

Rangelands represent one of the most important natural resources in mountainous regions of northern Nepal. However, a poor understanding of the social dimensions of rangeland use has limited their proper management and sustainable development, which represent major challenges for Nepal's resource managers. Institutional development is thought to be a viable solution to this problem and may ultimately lead to improved rangeland management in Nepal. Based on this hypothesis, a study was conduced in the Rasuwa district of northern Nepal to examine the effectiveness of institutional development at the local and national levels in mitigating the problems facing sustainable rangeland management by using an institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework. The information and data were mainly collected from different stakeholders, farmers, professionals and practitioners using a toolkit of participatory rural appraisal (PRA), workshops and literature review. It can be concluded from this case study that a number of institutional development efforts are needed to promote sustainable rangeland management in this region. First, local herders represent a repository of rich indigenous knowledge essential to sustaining sound rangeland management practices; hence, indigenous practices need to be integrated into modern technologies. Second, public services and technical support are currently unavailable or inaccessible to local herders; hence, research, development and extension interventions need to be initiated for marginalized pastoral communities. Third, rangeland institutions are incomplete and ill-organized, so institutional development of various organizations is necessary for promoting sustainable rangeland management. Fourth, the policies and governance necessary for promoting rangeland management are not well-designed; hence, governance reform and policy development need to be formulated through internal and external agencies and organizations.     

Place-based local governance and sustainable communities: lessons from Canadian biosphere reserves

The quest for sustainable communities might be fostered by a new ‘place-based’ governing approach that engages civil society and other actors in local decision-making processes. In Canada, lessons can be learned from the establishment and maintenance of biosphere reserves by networks of local communities of interests and other organisations. Biosphere reserves are created to promote conservation, biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods. Municipal and public participation in these reserves can be encouraged, promoting a local sense of place as well as sustainable community and regional development. An examination of two Canadian biosphere reserves, Riding Mountain and Long Point, illustrates how local governments and these reserves might assist each other in their mutual goals of long-term sustainability while offering a worthwhile model of local collaborative, place-based governance.