热电联产的效益与总量控制

介绍了热电联产的基本类型和一般规划原则,分析了热电联产规划为社会、经济及环境带来的效益,论证了热电联产是城市能源、环境协调发展的必由之路。通过SO2总量排放的分析,导出热电联产与分散供热能源利用方式所产生SO2排放总量的比较方法和计算模式。     

民航机务维修安全管理水平未确知测度分析

为了准确判断机务维修安全管理状况,从维修人员、机械设备、环境和管理4个方面分析和探讨机务维修安全管理影响因素。基于国内外民航机务维修日常安全管理现状,采用系统工程和安全科学理论,结合现场调研结果,提出机务维修安全管理水平指标体系,并确定指标体系中的安全管理水平分级标准。针对民航维修安全管理具有不确定性和复杂性的特点,运用未确知测度理论建立机务维修安全管理水平分析模型。应用该模型计算某维修单位安全管理测度向量值,利用置信度准则判定其安全等级。结果表明,应用该模型所得分析结果与航空公司机务维修实际安全管理水平相符,该单位今后应重点加强维修人员引进、新机型培训和老龄飞机维护等管理工作。     

植被对厂房自然通风影响的数值模拟研究

通过对动量方程、能量方程等加源项的方法实现了对三维植物冠层湍流流动下厂房自然通风的数值模拟。计算结果和实测数据在下垫面温度以及叶面温度方面吻合较好,能充分反映实际的温度分布趋势。表明模拟体系对于有绿化情况下建筑自然通风各项参数的描述是准确的,可较好地预测不同植被配置下,建筑自然通风温度、速度等物理量的分布情况。同时,利用有效吹风温度差的分布分析了厂房内人员的热感觉情况。     

基于BP神经网络的绿色建筑评价

绿色建筑是指在建筑的全寿命周期内,最大限度地节约资源,保护环境和减少污染,为人们提供健康、适用和高效的使用空间,与自然和谐共生。根据绿色建筑的特点,确立绿色建筑评价指标体系,并运用管理理论中的层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价方法(Fuzzy),提出了人工神经网络(ANN)评价模型。评估结果表明,该评价体系用于绿色建筑等级综合评价是快速、有效的。     

民航安全状况与社会经济指标关联分析

为了分析中国民航的安全趋势,基于中国民航1995-2014年安全生产历史数据和民航安全运行关系密切的26项社会经济指标,利用因子分析、相关系数等数学方法,建立了多元线性回归模型分析民航安全状况与社会经济指标的管理关联性。该模型表明对民航安全具有显著影响的社会经济指标包括国民经济、产业结构和人员素质。通过对比安全生产指标的拟合值和实际值,分析民航安全趋势的变化规律,并利用自回归移动平均模型预测2015-2018年民航安全生产指标值。计算结果显示该时间段内民航安全生产指标将处于历史高位,且呈现缓慢上升趋势。最后给出了针对行业安全监管、安全运行等方面的改进建议。     

The future of disasters studies: new disasters and the case of the Horn of Africa

Past disasters have been well studied, but the challenge of using the findings to improve the management of future events remains a daunting task. This paper argues that there are new and complex disasters of which the state itself has become the main source, as reflected in the Horn of Africa. This region is characterised by increasing vulnerability owing to the alarming decline of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. These new disasters are less researched because of the hazard of conducting fieldwork in such environments. However, there is mounting evidence to highlight the possibility of performing research in these settings, but not by employing traditional methods; rather, these tools may need to be customised for use. One key policy implication here is that donors may need to invest more money in analysing these new disasters and they may need to consider building and strengthening genuine partnerships between Northern and Southern research institutions     

形状记忆合金在土木工程中的研究与应用进展

形状记忆合金作为一种集传感和驱动于一身的新型功能材料,引起了土木工程界的广泛关注,对它的研究也日益深入,但应用尚处于起步阶段。回顾了形状记忆合金的发展过程,简单介绍了形状记忆合金的基本特性和本构模型;根据形状记忆合金在结构控制中所起的作用,分类概述了它作为被动控制器和主动控制器的研究进展以及在实际工程中的应用,重点介绍了SMA智能混凝土的研究情况;指出了当前形状记忆合金在土木工程领域研究中存在的问题,以及未来的发展方向。     

施工承包企业安全成本及其核算的研究

依据施工承包企业安全管理的目标、特点和程序,提出安全成本的概念和构成以及保证性安全成本对损失性安全成本的直接影响.同时,借助施工安全成本与安全度的关系、提高安全技术工作的经济合理性、加速构建施工承包企业安全成本核算制度,优化施工承包企业的安全管理工作,并为提高企业经济效益及社会经济运行的安全度奠定基础.     

Responding to security threats: livelihoods under protracted conflict in Sri Lanka

Populations affected by violent conflicts often withstand threats to their security as well as threats to their livelihoods. Their response to the former threats nontrivially affects their response to the latter threats, and vice versa. This paper examines the interplay between protection and livelihood strategies using a sample of households selected from the Anuradhapura district of Sri Lanka. The fieldwork for this study was completed in 2008, producing evidence that the protection and livelihood strategies employed by households affected by the protracted conflict in Sri Lanka are interlaced. In addition, the research discovered that Muslim and Sinhalese households largely responded to the protracted conflict in ways that are unique to their ethnic group. Certain vulnerabilities that impinge on protection and certain opportunities that support livelihoods are shown to be ethnicised. Hence, the final livelihood outcome, which is defined narrowly here as the household's income, also appears to be ethnicised.     

L'Aquila's reconstruction challenges: has Italy learned from its previous earthquake disasters?

Italy is an earthquake‐prone country and its disaster emergency response experiences over the past few decades have varied greatly, with some being much more successful than others. Overall, however, its reconstruction efforts have been criticised for being ad hoc, delayed, ineffective, and untargeted. In addition, while the emergency relief response to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009—the primary case study in this evaluation—seems to have been successful, the reconstruction initiative got off to a very problematic start. To explore the root causes of this phenomenon, the paper argues that, owing to the way in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicised the process, the L'Aquila reconstruction endeavour is likely to suffer problems with local ownership, national/regional/municipal coordination, and corruption. It concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at addressing the pitfalls that may confront the L'Aquila reconstruction process over the next few years.