Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach

In the recent years, global environmental change research has seen increased attention to the concept of vulnerability. There have been a growing number of vulnerability assessments, but relatively little discussion on appropriate and common methods. Here we propose a method to guide vulnerability assessments of coupled human–environment systems toward a common objective: informing the decision-making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. We suggest five criteria vulnerability assessments must at least possess to achieve this objective. They should have a knowledge base from various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based, consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. On the basis of these criteria, we present a general methodological guideline of eight steps. To examine whether these eight steps, if attentively coordinated, do in fact achieve the criteria, and in turn satisfy the objective of the assessment, we discuss two case studies. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as part of their well-established disciplinary practices. However, they should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps constitute a novel methodological framework. We hypothesize that if researchers employ this framework, then the products of the research will (1) achieve the objective of preparing stakeholders for the effects of global change on a site-specific basis, and (2) further the “public good” of additional insights through cross-study comparisons of research projects designed according to common principles.     

洞穴沉积物的环境记录研究进展

云贵高原有着独特的地理环境 ,其气候变迁应与青藏高原这一特殊的高海拔、低纬度的隆升地块有重要关系。洞穴化学沉积物是响应环境变化的地质记录档案 ,通过对它蕴藏的古气候信息的解译 ,可以反演过去的气候变化。本文侧重介绍了洞穴次生化学沉积物研究近年来取得的最新成果及其研究现状 ,并利用其在古环境研究中的优点 ,来讨论青藏高原的抬升对西南地区环境变化产生的屏蔽效应的可能性。     

植物对环境污染的适应代价

生物长期暴露在低浓度污染环境中会作自我调整来适应环境.适应继续, 其代价即可检测到.一般来讲,适应代价由进化代价和生态代价组成.进化代价主要集中在污染程度上,也就是说,适应于目前环境的植物群落会失去适应其他环境的能力,进化敏捷性减弱.尽管有一些学者并不赞成,但有大量科学数据支持这一观点.生态代价指的是生物适应寒冷、炎热、干燥和其他压力的能力降低,这些都是基于trade-offs理论产生的.     

Evaluation of dust activity and climate effects in North China

TOMS/Al data with nearly 20 years are utilized in the paper to evaluate dust activities in North China. Combined with simultaneous NCEP reanalysis climate data, climate effects on dust activities are assessed. The results showed that the whole North China suffers impact by dust aerosols, with three centers standing out in TOMS/Al spring average map that are western three basins, which are characterized by lower annual precipitation and elevation. Gobi deserts in Mongolia Plateau do not attain higher TOMS/AI value due to cloud contamination and relative higher elevation. Spring is the season with the highest TOMS dust aerosol index; within the western three basins, high dust aerosol index appears in both spring and summer, especially in Tarim Basin. Wind speed in spring and precipitation in previous rainy season play important roles in controlling dust activities, higher wind speed and less precipitation than the normal are in favor of dust activities in spring. Temperature in spring and previous winter also affect dust activity to a certain extent, but with contrary spatial distribution. Temperature in winter exert effect principally in west part, contrarily, temperature effect in spring is mainly shown in east part. Both of them have negative correlation with dust activity.     

Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century

Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for mitigation and adaptation.     

Carbon Offset Potentials of Four Alternative Forest Management Strategies in Canada: A Simulation Study

Using an Integrated TerrestrialEcosystem C-budget model (InTEC), we simulated thecarbon (C) offset potentials of four alternativeforest management strategies in Canada: afforestation,reforestation, nitrogen (N) fertilization, andsubstitution of fossil fuel with wood, under differentclimatic and disturbance scenarios. C offset potentialis defined as additional C uptake by forest ecosystemsor reduced fossil C emissions when a strategy isimplemented to the theoretical maximum possibleextent. The simulations provided the followingestimated gains from management: (1) Afforesting allthe estimated 7.2 Mha of marginal agricultural landand urban areas in 1999 would create an average Coffset potential of 8 Tg C y^-1 during 1999–2100,at a cost of 3.4 Tg fossil C emission in 1999. (2)Prompt reforestation of all forest lands disturbed inthe previous year during 1999–2100 would produce anaverage C offset potential of 57 Tg C y^-1 forthis period, at a cost of 1.33 Tg C y^-1. (3)Application of N fertilization (at the low rate of 5kg N ha^-1 y^-1) to the 125 Mha ofsemi-mature forest during 1999–2100 would create anaverage C offset of 58 Tg C y^-1 for this period,at a cost of 0.24 Tg C y^-1. (4) Increasingforest harvesting by 20% above current average ratesduring 1999–2100, and using the extra wood products tosubstitute for fossil energy would reduce averageemissions by 11 Tg C y^-1, at a cost of 0.54 TgC y^-1. If implemented to the maximum extent, thecombined C offset potential of all four strategieswould be 2–7 times the GHG emission reductionsprojected for the National Action Plan for ClimateChange (NAPCC) initiatives during 2000–2020, and anorder of magnitude larger than the projected increasein C uptake by Canada's agricultural soils due toimproved agricultural practices during 2000–2010.     

农业对小冰期和现代我国七月气候的影响模拟

小冰期是数千年来最引人注目的一个冷期,也是近百年变暖的直接历史背景,该时期我国农业扩展范围已与现代相差无几。自然植被被农业植被替换,对区域水循环和气候变化都产生影响。比较冷暖时期该类影响之差别,有利于认识土地覆盖与气候的联系。文中利用全球和区域气候模式,考察小冰期和现代两种全球背景下我国区域土地覆盖变化对七月平均气候状况的影响。结果表明：小冰期夏季偏冷地区主要在北方,农业具有减缓小冰期大尺度降温的效应,而在较温暖且温度变化较小的华南和华中地区,农业则起一定的降温效应；农业对现代气候下的降水影响不大,但在小冰期背景下却导致降水减少     

Genetic and Environmental Effects Assessment in Scots Pine Provenances Planted in Central Siberia

Scots pine provenance trials were established in 1964 in forest-steppe and in 1974 in southern taiga zones of Central Siberia from seeds collected over whole Russia. Tree-ring characteristics (radial growth and density chronologies) from 12 and 16 provenances planted in those plantations were measured densitometrically. Tree-ring analysis revealed a retention of a genetically fixed response to climatic factors proper to pines' origin. Trees from higher latitudes keep the orientation towards accelerated growth at the beginning of a growing season, which is followed by a rapid transition to formation of latewood cells and deceleration of growth earlier, than in medium-latitude trees. Main climatic factors controlling tree-rings formation differed slightly between different provenances within plantations. Genetically fixed ability of the provenances are not great (less than 15%), that proves high adaptability of pines to abrupt climatic change. Tree-ring formation of Scots pine provenances is mainly determined by the environmental factors.     

黄土高原西部地区林业气候动态聚类分析

杨树是黄土高原的主要树种之一。本文根据阴山东段不同立地条件下25年生的四种杨树解析木生长量资料,与该地区同时期气候因素进行了关联分析,按关联度大小,选取了八个气候因素作为聚类因子,再将关联度归一化,求得各因子的权重,表示各气候因素对树木生长作用的大小。最后根据黄土高原西部68个气象站1951—1980年的气候资料,应用动态聚类分析法,把黄土高原西部地区划分成几个不同类型林业气候区,区划结果与实际考察基本相符合。     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.