Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.     

Don’t Fight the Site: Three Geomorphic Considerations in Catchment-Scale River Rehabilitation Planning

Three geomorphic considerations that underpin the design and implementation of realistic and strategic river conservation and rehabilitation programs that work with the nature are outlined. First, the importance of appreciating the inherent diversity of river forms and processes is discussed. Second, river dynamics are appraised, framing the contemporary behavioral regime of a reach in relation to system evolution to explain changes to river character and behavior over time. Third, the trajectory of a reach is framed in relation to downstream patterns of river types, analyzing landscape connectivity at the catchment scale to interpret geomorphic river recovery potential. The application of these principles is demonstrated using extensive catchment-scale analyses of geomorphic river responses to human disturbance in the Bega and Upper Hunter catchments in southeastern Australia. Differing implications for reach- and catchment-scale rehabilitation planning prompt the imperative that management practices work with nature rather than strive to ‘fight the site.’     

Technological Progress, Structural Change and China＇s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China＇s declining energy intensity.     

Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

How organizational motives and communications affect public trust in organizations: The case of carbon dioxide capture and storage

Preventing climate change is among the greatest environmental challenges facing the world today. Recently developed carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important strategy to mitigate climate change. Public trust in organizations involved in CCS technology is important for successful implementation of this technology. This work adresses how inferred organizational motives and organizational communications affect public trust in these organizations. Study 1 (N = 264) showed that Dutch citizens generally have less trust in the industrial organizations than in the environmental NGOs involved in CCS. As predicted, inferred organizational motives (organization-serving motives versus public-serving motives) accounted for this difference. In Study 2 (N = 78) and Study 3 (N = 51) we used experimental designs. Both experiments showed that organizations that communicated arguments incongruent with inferred organizational motives instigated less trust than organizations that communicated arguments congruent with inferred organizational motives. Study 3 additionally showed that communicating an incongruent and a congruent argument together diminished the negative effects of the incongruent argument. In both Study 2 and Study 3 the effect of congruency on trust was mediated by perceived honesty of the organizations.     

Limitations of an optimum sustainable population or potential biological removal approach for conserving marine mammals: Pacific walrus case study

Decision rules are the agreed-upon points at which specific management interventions are initiated. For marine mammal management under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), decision rules are usually based on either a numeric population or biological-removal approach. However, for walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds, the inability to reliably assess population numbers or biological removals highlights a significant gap in the MMPA, particularly when the Arctic environment is rapidly changing. We describe the MMPA's ecosystem-based management goals, and why managers have bypassed these goals in favor of an approach that depends upon numerical population assessment. We then revisit the statute's primary goals in light of current knowledge about the Pacific walrus ecosystem and new developments in environmental governance. We argue that to monitor and respond to changes in the walrus ecosystem, decision rules should be based on scientific criteria that depend less on the currently-impractical goal of accurately enumerating population size and trends, or removals from that population. Rather, managers should base decisions on ecological needs and observed ecological changes. To implement this approach would require an amendment to the MMPA that supports filling the gap in management with achievable decision rules. Alternatively, walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds will remain largely unmanaged during a period of profound environmental change.     

From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.     

Choosing a Food Future: Differentiating Among Alternative Food Options

This article examines the diversity of food networks that fit within the alternative food system of the United States. While farmers’ markets, community supported agriculture schemes, and corporate organic food markets all fit within the alternative food system, they differ greatly in the conventions and beliefs that they represent. The alternative food system has divided into two movements: corporate, weak alternative food networks; and local, strong alternative food networks. The weak corporate version focuses on protecting the environment; however, it neglects issues concerning labor standards, animal welfare, rural communities, small-scale farmers, and human health. Local, strong alternative food networks not only assure environmental protection, but they also address the issues that weak alternatives neglect. Using three case studies from the Washington, D.C. metro area, the author explains that strong alternative food networks are better suited to create social and political change because they challenge the foundations of the conventional food system: standardized and generic products, price-based competition, consolidated power, and global scale. To affect true social and political change in the United States, the author recommends supporting strong alternative food networks by creating the requisite cultural and political space for them to succeed.