Presenting Triple-Wins? Assessing Projects That Deliver Adaptation,Mitigation and Development Co-benefits in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa

The concept of climate compatible development (CCD) is increasingly employed by donors and policy makers seeking ‘triple-wins’ for development, adaptation and mitigation. While CCD rhetoric is becoming more widespread, analyses drawing on empirical cases that present triple-wins are sorely lacking. We address this knowledge gap. Drawing on examples in rural sub-Saharan Africa, we provide the first glimpse into how projects that demonstrate triple-win potential are framed and presented within the scientific literature. We identify that development projects are still commonly evaluated in terms of adaptation or mitigation benefits. Few are framed according to their benefits across all three dimensions. Consequently, where triple-wins are occurring, they are likely to be under-reported. This has important implications, which underestimates the co-benefits that projects can deliver. A more robust academic evidence base for the delivery of triple-wins is necessary to encourage continued donor investment in activities offering the potential to deliver CCD.     

中国工业水污染及其成因的de Bruyn模型分析

选取废水、挥发酚、氰化物、COD、石油类和氨氮为中国工业水污染指标,利用分解分析方法将2004—2010年间的污染变化分解为规模效应、结构效应、污染治理效应、清洁技术效应和广义技术效应。结果显示,这5类效应的平均作用强度分别为2.08%、3.04%、15.61%、17.37%和32.88%,其中规模效应和广义技术效应是影响工业水污染的主导效应。各类效应对不同污染物的作用方向并不完全一致,规模效应促进污染物排放量的增加;结构效应以加重污染为主,污染治理效应和清洁技术效应以减轻污染为主;广义技术效应的平均作用强度和负向作用概率均最大,是现阶段中国工业水污染控制最为有效的手段。     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Addressing climate change: Determinants of consumers' willingness to act and to support policy measures

Consumers influence climate change through their consumption patterns and their support or dismissal of climate mitigation policy measures. Both climate-friendly actions and policy support comprise a broad range of options, which vary in manifold ways and, therefore, might be influenced by different factors. The aims of the study were, therefore, two-fold: first, we intended to find a meaningful way to classify different ways of addressing climate change. Second, we aimed to examine which determinants influence people's willingness to engage in these behaviors. We conducted a large-scale mail survey in Switzerland in which respondents rated, among other items, their willingness to act or support a range of possible actions and mitigations measures. A principal component analysis indicated that a distinction in terms of a behavior's directness as well as a differentiation according to perceived costs seem to be appropriate to classify climate-friendly actions. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived costs and perceived climate benefit turned out to be the strongest predictors for willingness to act or to support climate policy measures. The strong influence of perceived climate benefit might reflect a strategy of reducing cognitive dissonance. As high-cost behaviors are more difficult to adopt, consumers may reduce dissonance by dismissing high-cost behaviors as not effective in terms of climate mitigation. Political affiliation proved to be another strong determinant of willingness to act or support. Participants on the right wing were less willing to show indirect climate-friendly behaviors, change their mobility behaviors, and to support any type of climate mitigation policy measures. Climate-friendly low-cost behaviors, however, were not influenced by political affiliation.     

Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization

Many of the numerous difficult issues facing the world today involve relationships entailing trade‐offs and synergies. This study quantitatively assesses some alternative scenarios using integrated assessment models, and provides several indicators relating to sustainable development and climate change, such as indicators of income (per capita GDP), poverty, water stress, food access, sustainable energy use, energy security, and ocean acidification, with high consistencies among the indicators within a scenario. According to the analyses, economic growth helps improve many of the indicators for sustainable development. On the other hand, climate change will induce some severe impacts such as ocean acidification under a non‐climate intervention scenario (baseline scenario). Deep emission reductions, such as to 2°C above the pre‐industrial level, could cause some sustainable development indicators to worsen. There are complex trade‐offs between climate change mitigation levels and several sustainable development indicators. A delicately balanced approach to economic growth will be necessary for sustainable development and responses to climate change.     

A case study of REDD+ challenges in the post‐2012 climate regime: The scenarios approach

The REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) partnership works to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by protecting forests in developing countries through positive incentives. It is regarded as an essential component of the post‐2012 climate regime to stabilize GHG emissions and engage developing countries in worldwide mitigation endeavours. This study focuses on the gap between agricultural revenue and REDD+ compensation through the construction of several scenarios that explore the impacts of possible carbon price ranges.Three scenarios that reflect different potential policies are examined: (1) current carbon trading; (2) carbon trading with all forestry activities; and (3) carbon trading with all countries participating gradually over the coming decades. Data for developing the scenarios were obtained through a case study in central Kalimantan, Indonesia, by interrogating the potential for revenue by expanding agricultural land. The results indicate that REDD+ payments could not effectively compensate land users for their opportunity cost of deforestation, making it difficult for the governments to ensure that REDD+ money “reaches the ground” in terms of balancing the agricultural revenue of land users.     

人类发展指数的修正与可持续发展的替代指标

本文确认了全球社会-生态问题(过度消费,道德危机)的主要根源并提出了新的可持续发展的愿景,重点要关注精神、道德、心理、生理和人的智力开发(而代替以消费为导主的理念)。讨论了人类发展指标不足所涉及到的因素(寿命预期、人均国内生产总值),提出了测量人类可持续发展的替代指标,即:健康人口的比例。生态效率也被建议作为转化可持续发展的必要条件,人的精神,根据生态中心立场(社会-生态幸福)。通过适当的教育和体制政策而实现环境和人类健康、公平和整个人类的发展。     

结构红利与资源诅咒——西部大开发以来内蒙古产业结构变迁绩效评价

统计分析表明,西部大开发以来内蒙古经济存在越来越严重的就业-产值结构偏离趋势。采用shilt—share方法分别对西部大开以来内蒙古、西部和全国的劳动生产率进行分解和比较分析发现,内蒙古的结构红利不显著。因此,近年来内蒙古经济虽有良好的增长绩效,但其资源依赖型增长正通过价格机制和制度效率两个途径制约着产业结构的高级化与合理化变迁,即存在潜在的资源诅咒问题。     

高加速应力试验装置技术参数的测量

气锤驱动的高加速应力试验装置,能产生温度和非高斯随机振动应力,其中振动应力是由多个气锤作六自由度运动产生的。一般用来进行高温步进、低温步进、快速温度变化、振动、快速温变和振动复合试验。目前国家标准和校准规程中均无关于该试验装置的技术参数的校准方法。本文结合试验装置的技术特点,提出了几个关于温度和振动技术参数的测量方法,如:温度偏差、温度波动度、温度均匀度、温度过冲量、温度变化速率、均方根加速度、横向振动比、功率谱密度等。     

基于RS和GIS的山东省17城市生态环境质量动态变化研究

运用遥感动态监测与地理信息系统技术相结合的方法,以2005年和2009年遥感解译数据、土地侵蚀数据及环境统计数据为数据源,依据《生态环境状况评价技术规范(试行)》(HJ/T192-2006),对山东省17个城市生态环境质量现状及动态变化趋势进行了评价。结果表明:2009年17个城市生态环境状况指数在59.81～78.08之间,生态环境质量状况总体良好;2005-2009年17城市生态环境状况指数变化值在0.06～3.5之间,生态环境质量状况基本稳定。