Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

Influence of new town development on the urban heat island - The case of the Bundang area

Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island.     

Interregional burden-sharing of greenhouse gas mitigation in the United States

Emissions trading is anattractive candidate for implementinggreenhouse gas mitigation, because it canpromote both efficiency and equity. Thispaper analyzes the interregional impacts ofalternative allocations of carbon dioxideemission permits within the U.S. Theanalysis is performed with the aid of anonlinear programming model for ten EPARegions and for six alternative permitdistribution formulas. The reason thatvarious alternatives need to be consideredis that there is no universal consensus onthe best definition of equity. Advanceknowledge of absolute and relative regionaleconomic impacts provides policy-makerswith a stronger basis for making thechoice. The analysis yields several usefulresults. First, the simulations indicatethat no matter how permits are allocated,this policy instrument can substantiallyreduce the cost of GHG mitigation for theU.S. in comparison to a system of fixedquotas for each of its regions. Interestingly, the welfare impacts ofseveral of the allocation formulas differonly slightly despite the large differencesin their philosophical underpinnings. Also, the results for some equity criteriadiffer greatly from their application inthe international domain. For example, theEgalitarian (per capita) criterion resultsin the relatively greatest cost burdenbeing incurred by one of the regions of theU.S. with the lowest per capita income.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。     

黄河上游西线调水工程对调出区气候影响的初步分析

在分析南水北调西线工程水量调出区气候特征的基础上,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,重点分析了调水工程对库区与坝址下游临近河段局地气候的影响,以及调水对引水坝址下游“干旱河谷”区的可能影响,并对干旱河谷的分布及其成因进行了较深入的分析。结果表明:调水对库区气候影响不大;对坝址下游临近地区的气温、降水等将不会造成明显的影响;对干旱河谷区的局地气候虽有影响,但很微弱。     

厚覆盖区1：25万区域地质调查工作方法研究

通过1：25万杭州市幅厚覆盖区第四纪研究和填图实践，初步总结出“以气候旋回及基准面旋回等时性理论为基础，从古气候旋回宏观识别标志研究人手，以标准孔为基准点外延扩展，在反复认识与验证的基础上，进行层序地层划分，建立剖面等时格架，制作高精度对比的剖面图及准瞬时岩相古地理图”的研究方法，以及“从古岸线沉积物研究人手，充分运用非正式岩石地层单位的表示方法，结合考古及地方志，填绘出具岩石空间分布、海平面升降信息、古文化遗址、浅表含水层展布及河流与海岸线变迁”的非常规填图方法。提高了本区第四纪地层研究精度，使地质图具有强烈的地区特色。拓宽了区调工作的服务领域。并为沿海厚覆盖区的区域地质调查另辟了一条新思路。     

黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征

利用黄河流域及其周边123个气象站1961～2000年20cm口径蒸发皿资料,分析了黄河流域蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化趋势。结果表明,就整个流域平均而言,尽管在1960～2000年期间,黄河流域年平均温度升高了0.6℃,但蒸发皿蒸发量却呈明显下降趋势,黄河流域年蒸发皿蒸发量在20世纪80～90年代较60～70年代下降了136mm,下降幅度为7.5%;蒸发皿蒸发量的下降主要表现在夏季和春季,秋季和冬季不明显。对蒸发皿蒸发量气候变化的空间分析表明,局部区域与整个流域的气候变化趋势并不完全同步,黄河流域上游和下游蒸发皿蒸发量呈下降趋势,中游呈持平并略有上升趋势。     

全球环境变化与全球不平等南北方的不同立场

全球环境变化给发展中国家和南北关系带来深刻影响，理解环境问题的全球不平等需要以发展中国家80年代开始的经济结构调整和沉重债务为背景。南方的环境政策优先在很大程度上与其生活的可持续性相连，而不是通常与全球环境变化的长期性风险相关，然而，全球环境变化又与发展中国家贫困人口的日常生活紧密相关。从南方的立场看，当“问题”对他们不十分迫切时，就很难同意采取措施，仅此原因，北方对全球环境变化的关切要得到成功回应，真正的全球契约就需要解决基本“发展”问题，主要是贫困。     

Impacts of climate change on wheat development and production in the northern China

In this paper, impacts of climate change on wheat development rate and production in the northern China are discussed. The results show that the temperature is a controlling factor of development rate but the precipitation is not. The higher the temperature is. the faster the development and the shorter development period will be. Without consideration to varieties and cropping system, meteorological yield of winter wheat would decrease 170.40, 134.25, 98.70 and 97.20 kg/hm2 in the north China and 13.97, 7.95, 39.60 and 19.80 kg/hm2 in the northwest China compared with that in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, respectively, when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled. In drought and semi-drought regions, the spring wheat yield would drop with the temperature rise in and raise with the precipitation increase. The influence of temperature on weight of leaf and stalk is also remarkable.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY

A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study. The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region.