上海城郊土壤重金属含量的空间变异与分布特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响,选择上海城郊结合部为研究区域,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Mn 5种重金属的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：土壤Cu、Cr、Mn、Pb、Zn均属中等变异,土壤Mn含量服从正态分布,土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn含量服从对数正态分布;半方差函数模型拟合结果显示土壤Mn符合指数模型,土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn符合线性模型、其中土壤Cu、Pb、Zn为纯块金效应模型,反映了城郊结合部土壤污染空间变异的复杂性。通过泛克里格插值可直观反应表层土壤重金属含量空间分布特征,发现土壤Cr、Mn呈岛状,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn呈多岛状分布的特点,工业和交通污染源是影响土壤重金属空间分布的重要因素     

长江三峡库区极端大雾天气的气候变化特征

为了进一步认识长江三峡库区大雾天气特征,采用线性趋势估计和Molet小波分析方法,研究了库区持续12 h以上和连续3 d以上极端大雾天气气候变化特征,探讨了库区蓄水后大雾天气气候变化的原因。结果表明：三峡库区年平均雾日数呈弱的下降趋势,存在准8、18、32 a的年代际周期振荡。持续12 h以上和连续3 d以上大雾天气有明显增加趋势,分别存在准10、17、32 a和准12、32 a的年代际周期振荡。在蓄水后,库区西段年平均雾日数明显减少、东段略有增加,持续12 h以上大雾年平均日数变化不大,连续3 d以上大雾年平均日数明显减少。库区年平均雾日数的总体减少在很大程度上是受全球气候变暖以及城市化共同影响的结果,没有证据说明三峡库区蓄水对大雾天气有明显影响。     

气候变化对鄱阳湖流域干旱灾害影响及其对策

以我国历史气候变化的事实与过程重建的成果为基础,以历史文献为依据,分析了两宋以来鄱阳湖流域气候变化与洪水干旱灾害发生的关系,结果表明,不管气候处于温湿期还是冷干期,发生洪水灾害的频率没有显著区别;但是当气候处于冷干时期,发生干旱灾害的频率增大,特大干旱年和连续干旱年组频频出现。利用气象、水文资料统计分析表明,最近60 a来,气温呈现增高趋势,逐年的日降水强度明显增加,洪水干旱等极端事件发生更加频繁。为了更好地应对干旱灾害,必须加强水需求管理、坚持节约用水为先;加强病险水库的治理,使其充分发挥作用;对现有水利工程进行再评估,实施适应性管理,充分挖掘工程潜力;加大力度,新建与自然和谐相处的水利工程     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

原生态环境下广西涠洲岛近50年气候变率的分析

广西涠洲岛气象站由于其特定的地理位置,使得该站成为广西为数不多、大气观测环境50年来持续保持原有生态环境的气象台站之一。应用该岛屿气象站及与之相邻的广西北海市合浦气象站1956~2005年的气温、雨量等气象资料,分析、比较近50年来北部湾海域气候自然变化和在城镇大规模发展影响下气候变化的差异及发展趋势:用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均气温、雨量等要素季和年时间序列进行突变检验,对定量地论述在全球气候变暖情况下区域性气候自然变化的响应有非常重要的意义。     

印制电路板诱发气候环境试验方法研究

为提升装备环境适应性设计水平,开展了印制电路板诱发气候环境试验方法研究。规定了电子设备印制电路板诱发气候环境试验的设备、仪器、样品、过程及评价等内容。适用于指导开展电子设备印制电路板诱发气候环境试验与制定评价规程。该试验方法在经过不断改进与完善后,将成为电子行业基础的的试验与评价技术规范。     

Associations of Decadal to Multidecadal Sea‐Surface Temperature Variability with Upper Colorado River Flow1

Abstract: The relations of decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in global sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) with D2M variability in the flow of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) are examined for the years 1906‐2003. Results indicate that D2M variability of SSTs in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, tropical Pacific, and Indian Oceans is associated with D2M variability of the UCRB. A principal components analysis (with varimax rotation) of detrended and 11‐year smoothed global SSTs indicates that the two leading rotated principal components (RPCs) explain 56% of the variability in the transformed SST data. The first RPC (RPC1) strongly reflects variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the second RPC (RPC2) represents variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Ocean, and Indian Ocean SSTs. Results indicate that SSTs in the North Atlantic Ocean (RPC1) explain as much of the D2M variability in global SSTs as does the combination of Indian and Pacific Ocean variability (RPC2). These results suggest that SSTs in all of the oceans have some relation with flow of the UCRB, but the North Atlantic may have the strongest and most consistent association on D2M time scales. Hydroclimatic persistence on these time scales introduces significant nonstationarity in mean annual streamflow, with critical implications for UCRB water resource management.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策

全球气候变暖已经成了一个不争的事实。在全球气候变化背景下,我国的气温不断增高,降水和极端天气气候事件不断增多。根据气候变化情景,从区域布局、种植结构、农作物产量和品质以及设施农业等方面分析了气候变化对我国农业的可能影响,并提出了我国农业应对气候变化的适应性对策。     

A cross-validation of safety climate scale using confirmatory factor analytic approach

PROBLEM: Given the lack of a consistent factor structure of safety climate, this study tested the stability of a factor structure of a safety climate scale developed through an extensive literature review using confirmatory factor analytic approach and cross-validation. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of 722 U.S. grain industry workers participated in the questionnaire survey. RESULTS: The safety climate scale developed through the generation of an item pool based on a table of specifications, subsequent scientific item reduction procedures, reviews from experts, and pilot test yielded adequate reliabilities for each dimension. Each item showed proper discriminative power based on both internal and external criteria. Criterion validity was manifested by the significant positive correlation of the scale with five criteria. Evidence of construct validity was provided by both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Both calibration and validation samples supported a consistent factor structure. Management commitment and supervisor support were found to influence other dimensions of safety climate. DISCUSSION: This study provides an insight into the primary reason why previous attempts have failed to find a consistent factor structure of safety climate: No specification of the influence of management commitment and supervisor support on other dimensions of safety in their models. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study provide a framework upon which accident prevention efforts can be effectively organized and underscore the importance of management commitment and supervisor support as they affect employee safety perceptions.