Assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the Nordic countries – an interactive geovisualization approach

Nordic agriculture must adapt to climate change to reduce vulnerability and exploit potential opportunities. Integrated assessments can identify and quantify vulnerability in order to recognize these adaptation needs. This study presents a geographic visualization approach to support the interactive assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change. We have identified requirements for increased transparency and reflexivity in vulnerability assessments, arguing that these can be met by geographic visualization. A conceptual framework to support the integration of geographic visualization for vulnerability assessments has been designed and applied for the development of AgroExplore, an interactive tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sweden. To open up the black box of composite vulnerability indices, AgroExplore enables the user to select, weight, and classify relevant indicators into sub-indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This enables the exploration of underlying indicators and factors determining vulnerability in Nordic agriculture.     

Transformational change: governance interventions for climate change adaptation from a continuous change perspective

Although transformational change is a rather new topic in climate change adaptation literature, it has been studied in organisational theory for over 30 years. This paper argues that governance scholars can learn much from organisation theory, more specifically regarding the conceptualisation of change and intervention strategies. We reconceptualise the divide between transformational change and incremental change by questioning the feasibility of changes that are concurrently in-depth, large scale, and quick; and the assumption that incremental change is necessarily slow and can only result in superficial changes. To go beyond this dichotomy, we introduce the conceptualisation of continuous transformational change. Resulting intervention strategies include (1) providing basic conditions for enabling small in-depth wins; (2) amplifying small wins through sensemaking, coupling, and integrating; and (3) unblocking stagnations by confronting social and cognitive fixations with counterintuitive interventions. These interventions necessitate a modest leadership. Governing transformational change thus requires transformation of the governance systems themselves.     

Climate change adaptation in the urban planning and design research: missing links and research agenda

This paper investigates the extent and the nature of how the urban planning literature has addressed climate change adaptation. It presents a longitudinal study of 157 peer-reviewed articles published from 2000 to 2013 in the leading urban planning and design journals whose selection considered earlier empirical studies that ranked them these journals. The findings reveal that the years 2006–07 represent a turning point, after which climate change studies appear more prominently and consistently in the urban planning and design literature; however, the majority of these studies address climate change mitigation rather than adaptation. Most adaptation studies deal with governance, social learning, and vulnerability assessments, while paying little attention to physical planning and urban design interventions. This paper identifies four gaps that pertain to the lack of interdisciplinary linkages, the absence of knowledge transfer, the presence of scale conflict, and the dearth of participatory research methods. It then advocates for the advancement of participatory and collaborative action research to meet the multifaceted challenges of climate change.     

Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.     

洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害演变趋势及其与El Nio事件关系

为分析洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害在千年尺度序列上的演变趋势,采用统计历史洪涝记录的方法,分析了气候变化背景下洪涝灾害的响应过程,探讨了洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害同El Nio事件的关系。结果表明：近1 000 a来洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的频度总体是趋于上升的,这种变化趋势同气候变化的趋势是一致的。研究结果显示：公元1000~1400年洪涝记录偏少,同我国东部地区尤其是中世纪暖期出现的一次200 a以上的干旱化过程有较好的对应性。1400~1800年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发期,这一事实同我国东部1550~1850年小冰期期间总体偏湿的环境特征相一致。分析洪涝灾害变化同El Nio事件对应性关系表明：在El Nio事件年及其次年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发年份。这可能是由于El Nio事件通过改变西太平洋副高的强度与位置,以及大气环流形势而引起的降水异常所致。了解洪泽湖流域洪涝的演变趋势及其同El Nio的关系对于长期防灾减灾策略具有重要的参考意义。     

汉江上游金水河流域近50年气候变化特征及其对生态环境的影响

利用5年滑动平均距平分析、线性回归分析、相关分析及Autoregression 模型等统计分析方法,分析了近50年（1957~2004年）汉江上游金水河流域年度和春、夏、秋、冬4季气温和降水变化特征及其对流域生态环境的影响。结果显示：近50年来金水河流域气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量减少的暖干化趋势。年平均气温总体上升了111℃,同时在上世纪90年代到本世纪初,年平均气温增幅最大,达到06℃;季节变化中,冬季增温最显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗<001）。年平均降水量总体下降了1196 mm,在1985~1997年间,降水量呈现显著波动下降趋势,最大降幅为3452 mm;而季节变化中,夏季下降最明显。在未来10年,流域内气温将持续增加,年平均气温将增加013℃,降水量将逐年减少,年平均降水量将减少78%。金水河流域过去近50年的气候变化对流域内的生态环境产生了较大的影响,从而加剧了流域生态系统的脆弱性,从一定程度上对南水北调中线工程的水资源安全构成了威胁。     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

C2–C8 NMHCs over the Eastern Mediterranean: Seasonal variation and impact on regional oxidation chemistry

More than 2500 measurements of C₂–C₈ non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) have been conducted at Finokalia sampling station on the island of Crete over a thirty-month period (September 2003–February 2006), to investigate the factors controlling NMHC levels and estimate their role in the oxidizing capacity of the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere. Atmospheric concentrations of NMHCs range from below the detection limit (5 pptv) to a few ppbv and present a hydroxyl radical (OH) driven seasonal pattern with lower values during summer. The diel variability was also influenced by the reaction of the NMHC with the OH radical, exhibiting a nighttime maximum and a midday or early afternoon minimum. Long-lived compounds demonstrate higher concentrations under the influence of the northern sector (European continent), indicating that besides chemistry, transport significantly contributes to NMHCs levels in the area. Based on the observed NMHCs diurnal cycles, mean OH radical levels of 3.5 × 10⁶ molecules cm⁻³ have been derived for May–October period.     

An operational method for the evaluation of resource use and environmental impacts of dairy farms by life cycle assessment

This paper describes and applies EDEN-E, an operational method for the environmental evaluation of dairy farms based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) conceptual framework. EDEN-E requires a modest amount of data readily available on-farm, and thus can be used to assess a large number of farms at a reasonable cost. EDEN-E estimates farm resource use and pollutant emissions mostly at the farm scale, based on-farm-gate balances, amongst others. Resource use and emissions are interpreted in terms of potential impacts: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, terrestrial toxicity, non-renewable energy use and land occupation. The method distinguishes for each total impact a direct component (impacts on the farm site) and an indirect component (impacts associated with production and supply of inputs used). A group of 47 dairy farms (41 conventional and six organic) was evaluated. Expressed per 1000 kg of fat-and-protein-corrected milk, total land occupation was significantly larger for organic than for conventional farms, while total impacts for eutrophication, acidification, climate change, terrestrial toxicity, and non-renewable energy use were not significantly different for the two production modes. When expressed per ha of land occupied all total impacts were significantly larger for conventional than organic farms. This study largely confirms previously published findings concerning the effect of production mode on impacts of dairy farms. However, it strikingly reveals that, for the set of farms examined, the contribution of production mode to overall inter-farm variability of impacts was minor relative to inter-farm variability within each of the two production modes examined. The mapping of impact variability through EDEN-E opens promising perspectives to move towards sustainable farming systems by identifying the structural and management characteristics of the farms presenting the lowest impacts.     

Heterogeneity of Thermal Extremes: Driven by Disturbance or Inherent in the Landscape

Ecologists are beginning to recognize the effect of heterogeneity on structure and function in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Additionally, the influences of temperature on ecosystems are widely documented, but landscape temperature patterns and relationships with vegetation are rarely reported in ecological studies. To better understand the importance of temperature patterns to the conservation and restoration of native ecosystems, we designed an experiment to investigate relationships among soil surface temperature, landscape heterogeneity, and grazing intensity. Grazing intensity did influence the vegetation structure and composition. Heavy treatments had the greatest bare ground and the least vertical structure. Ungrazed treatments had the most litter and live grass cover. However, average temperatures among the three grazing treatments were not different and ranged less than 2°C during midday summer periods. The temperature difference between riparian and upland landscapes within grazing treatments was 21°C. Landscape position (riparian vs. upland) did have a significant influence on soil surface temperature and produced a variation in temperature 11 times greater than grazing intensities. Thermal heterogeneity did not differ among grazing treatments. Lower soil surface temperatures (associated with riparian areas) may provide a critical thermal refuge for many animals in arid and semiarid ecosystems on hot summer days, when air temperatures can exceed 37°C. Riparian zones, specifically riparian vegetation, are an important component in ecosystem management.