Carbon Offset Potentials of Four Alternative Forest Management Strategies in Canada: A Simulation Study

Using an Integrated TerrestrialEcosystem C-budget model (InTEC), we simulated thecarbon (C) offset potentials of four alternativeforest management strategies in Canada: afforestation,reforestation, nitrogen (N) fertilization, andsubstitution of fossil fuel with wood, under differentclimatic and disturbance scenarios. C offset potentialis defined as additional C uptake by forest ecosystemsor reduced fossil C emissions when a strategy isimplemented to the theoretical maximum possibleextent. The simulations provided the followingestimated gains from management: (1) Afforesting allthe estimated 7.2 Mha of marginal agricultural landand urban areas in 1999 would create an average Coffset potential of 8 Tg C y^-1 during 1999–2100,at a cost of 3.4 Tg fossil C emission in 1999. (2)Prompt reforestation of all forest lands disturbed inthe previous year during 1999–2100 would produce anaverage C offset potential of 57 Tg C y^-1 forthis period, at a cost of 1.33 Tg C y^-1. (3)Application of N fertilization (at the low rate of 5kg N ha^-1 y^-1) to the 125 Mha ofsemi-mature forest during 1999–2100 would create anaverage C offset of 58 Tg C y^-1 for this period,at a cost of 0.24 Tg C y^-1. (4) Increasingforest harvesting by 20% above current average ratesduring 1999–2100, and using the extra wood products tosubstitute for fossil energy would reduce averageemissions by 11 Tg C y^-1, at a cost of 0.54 TgC y^-1. If implemented to the maximum extent, thecombined C offset potential of all four strategieswould be 2–7 times the GHG emission reductionsprojected for the National Action Plan for ClimateChange (NAPCC) initiatives during 2000–2020, and anorder of magnitude larger than the projected increasein C uptake by Canada's agricultural soils due toimproved agricultural practices during 2000–2010.     

农业对小冰期和现代我国七月气候的影响模拟

小冰期是数千年来最引人注目的一个冷期,也是近百年变暖的直接历史背景,该时期我国农业扩展范围已与现代相差无几。自然植被被农业植被替换,对区域水循环和气候变化都产生影响。比较冷暖时期该类影响之差别,有利于认识土地覆盖与气候的联系。文中利用全球和区域气候模式,考察小冰期和现代两种全球背景下我国区域土地覆盖变化对七月平均气候状况的影响。结果表明：小冰期夏季偏冷地区主要在北方,农业具有减缓小冰期大尺度降温的效应,而在较温暖且温度变化较小的华南和华中地区,农业则起一定的降温效应；农业对现代气候下的降水影响不大,但在小冰期背景下却导致降水减少     

Genetic and Environmental Effects Assessment in Scots Pine Provenances Planted in Central Siberia

Scots pine provenance trials were established in 1964 in forest-steppe and in 1974 in southern taiga zones of Central Siberia from seeds collected over whole Russia. Tree-ring characteristics (radial growth and density chronologies) from 12 and 16 provenances planted in those plantations were measured densitometrically. Tree-ring analysis revealed a retention of a genetically fixed response to climatic factors proper to pines' origin. Trees from higher latitudes keep the orientation towards accelerated growth at the beginning of a growing season, which is followed by a rapid transition to formation of latewood cells and deceleration of growth earlier, than in medium-latitude trees. Main climatic factors controlling tree-rings formation differed slightly between different provenances within plantations. Genetically fixed ability of the provenances are not great (less than 15%), that proves high adaptability of pines to abrupt climatic change. Tree-ring formation of Scots pine provenances is mainly determined by the environmental factors.     

中国西部年降水量的气候变化

中国西部大部分处于干旱、半干旱地区,而且降水量长期变化剧烈。论文综合整理了17个年降水量代用资料序列,其中11个为树木年轮,4个为史料,2个为冰芯积累量。所有序列均采用10年平均值,对1880～1979年的100年平均求每10年平均百分率距平。EOF1表明河套以西到祁连山北部有一致的变化。这个特征与1951～1999年的观测资料及模拟结果的EOF1十分相似。这表明代用资料能反映西部年降水量变化的主要特征。根据代用资料EOF1的时间系数及中心区降水量变化曲线,17世纪,特别是上半叶干旱严重。有资料证明,这个干旱期可能开始于16世纪70年代。近50年是400年以来中国西部年降水量最丰沛的时期。多雨主要发生在气候剧烈变暖的20世纪最后30年。从代用资料来看,降水量变化有“世纪周期”。17世纪的干旱与20世纪末的多雨是否分别与小冰期及现代气候变暖有关,还要进一步研究。     

黄土高原西部地区林业气候动态聚类分析

杨树是黄土高原的主要树种之一。本文根据阴山东段不同立地条件下25年生的四种杨树解析木生长量资料,与该地区同时期气候因素进行了关联分析,按关联度大小,选取了八个气候因素作为聚类因子,再将关联度归一化,求得各因子的权重,表示各气候因素对树木生长作用的大小。最后根据黄土高原西部68个气象站1951—1980年的气候资料,应用动态聚类分析法,把黄土高原西部地区划分成几个不同类型林业气候区,区划结果与实际考察基本相符合。     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Temporal variability of airborne bacterial community structure in an urban area

Temporal airborne bacterial genetic community structure and meteorological factors were analysed above an urban area in the northwest of France from December 2003 to April 2004 with a sampling strategy considering different time intervals (from an hour to a month). Principal component analysis (PCA) of B-ARISA (Bacterial-Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis) profiles revealed a hierarchy in the temporal variability of bacterial community: daily<weekly<seasonal. Co-inertia analysis between B-ARISA data and meteorological factors demonstrated the correlation between the seasonal variability in the bacterial community and climatic conditions such as temperature and relative humidity, whereas daily and weekly variability seemed likely to be managed by other factors such as anthropogenic activities.     

城市大气总悬浮颗粒物与城市热岛

城市大气总悬浮颗粒物是造成全球大部分城市空气污染严重的原因之一,世界各国对之已进行过很多的研究。大量的研究显示,总悬浮颗粒物的污染非常严重,是影响城市空气质量的首要污染物。总悬浮颗粒物的源以人为来源为主,其汇则以湿沉降为主。总悬浮颗粒物对城市气候的影响主要通过2种方式:一种是通过散射或吸收太阳辐射直接影响气候;另一种是以云凝结核的形式改变云的光学特性和云的分布而间接影响气候。但是总悬浮颗粒物与城市热岛相互关系的研究目前还未受到应有的关注,总悬浮颗粒物与城市热岛的相互作用尚未有定论,总悬浮颗粒物既有促进城市热岛形成,也有促进城市冷岛形成的研究报道。文章认为可从如下3个方面探讨总悬浮颗粒物与城市热岛的相互关系:(1)总悬浮颗粒物在城市热岛中的贡献;(2)总悬浮颗粒物影响城市热岛的作用机理;(3)总悬浮颗粒物与城市植被和城市热岛的相互关系及植被对总悬浮颗粒物的净化、对城市热岛的缓解。研究总悬浮颗粒物与城市热岛的相互关系为制定科学合理的城市大气总悬浮颗粒物污染防治措施,有效缓解现代城市热岛难题提供理论依据。     

Effects of Contaminant Decay on the Diffusion Centre of a River

Many contaminants exhibit decay (radioactive decay, consumed by bacteria, heat loss or evaporation through the surface, dissolution by turbulence). For a non-symmetric river with non-reversing flow, the effects of decay are allowed for in specifying the diffusion centre, i.e. the optimal position for a steady discharge. Three families of exact solutions are presented that illustrate the effect on the diffusion centre of cross-channel variation in the decay (uniform, decreasing or increasing with depth). The diffusion centre is shifted to deeper or to shallower water accordingly as the temporal decay divided by flow speed decreases or increases with water depth.     

Monitoring the transport of biomass burning emissions in South America

The atmospheric transport of biomass burning emissions in the South American and African continents is being monitored annually using a numerical simulation of air mass motions; we use a tracer transport capability developed within RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) coupled to an emission model. Mass conservation equations are solved for carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate material (PM2.5). Source emissions of trace gases and particles associated with biomass burning activities in tropical forest, savanna and pasture have been parameterized and introduced into the model. The sources are distributed spatially and temporally and assimilated daily using the biomass burning locations detected by remote sensing. Advection effects (at grid scale) and turbulent transport (at sub-grid scale) are provided by the RAMS parameterizations. A sub-grid transport parameterization associated with moist deep and shallow convection, not explicitly resolved by the model due to its low spatial resolution, has also been introduced. Sinks associated with the process of wet and dry removal of aerosol particles and chemical transformation of gases are parameterized and introduced in the mass conservation equation. An operational system has been implemented which produces daily 48-h numerical simulations (including 24-h forecasts) of CO and PM2.5, in addition to traditional meteorological fields. The good prediction skills of the model are demonstrated by comparisons with time series of PM2.5 measured at the surface.