基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析

针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。     

障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响

为了了解障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响,基于CFD方法建立蒸气云爆炸计算模型,选用国外MERGE项目的系列爆炸实验进行模型验证,提出用于衡量障碍物排列不均匀度的量化参数,针对海洋平台典型结构形式,分析障碍物排列方式对爆炸强度的影响。研究结果表明:蒸气云爆炸后果对于结构排列方式比较敏感,结构障碍物间隔均匀排列的形式造成的爆炸冲击作用最大;在爆炸发展初期阶段,障碍物阻塞程度对超压产生和发展影响更加显著。最后,基于研究结果,给出在海洋平台油气泄漏危险区将管线沿甲板非均匀排列布置等防控建议,为海洋平台蒸气云爆炸安全防控提供理论指导。     

开敞空间可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压及灾害动力响应研究评述

为了进一步梳理和分析开敞空间可燃云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律及灾害动力响应方面的各项研究成果,推进可燃气体爆炸安全防控,减少人员伤亡和经济损失。在分析现有研究的基础上,总结开敞空间可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律及灾害动力响应研究等方面存在的不足,提出开敞空间多元混合气体爆炸冲击波超压传播规律研究、多影响参数下可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律定量分析、基于可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压作用下的承载体动力响应等未来研究的关键技术问题。     

Frog, Bat, and Dung Beetle Diversity in the Cloud Forest and Coffee Agroecosystems of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract:  We compared the species diversity of copronecrophagous beetles (Scarabaeinae) , bats, and frogs in tropical montane cloud forest (original vegetation) and shaded coffee plantations (an agroecosystem common to the region) for a landscape in central Veracruz, Mexico. We sampled in three tropical montane cloud forest fragments and in three coffee plantations with traditional polyculture shade between 1998 and 2001. The three indicator groups responded differently to the transformation of tropical montane cloud forest into shaded coffee plantations. The species richness of frogs was one-fifth less in coffee plantations than in forest fragments, and only one-third of the frog species occurred in both forest fragments and coffee plantations. The number of beetle species and their abundance was significantly greater in coffee plantations than in the forest fragments, whereas species richness and species composition of bats were virtually the same in both habitats. The majority of the abundant species remained as such in both communities, but species that were less abundant were not scarce in both habitats. We attributed differences in the species assemblages to the differing degrees of penetrability of the borders of the two habitat types (especially for the coffee plantations) and to the differences in life-history traits among species. Shaded coffee plantations form a matrix that envelops the remaining fragments of cloud forest. Together they connect the forest fragments with the other habitats of the landscape and represent a highly functional resource for the preservation of biodiversity that serves as a complement to but not a substitute for cloud forest in this notably modified landscape.     

Inhibiting effects by Fe2O3 on combustion and explosion characteristics of ABS resin

The global increase in the use of, and reliance on, plastics has prompted the demand for acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) resin in various fields. With this increased requirement, numerous failures have occurred in the ABS process. Those incidents, resulting from electrostatic discharge, powder accumulation, heat accumulation, construction sparks, and plant fires, have caused dust fire and explosions.In this study, the ABS resin was gleaned from the site and tested for its explosion parameters, including minimum ignition temperature of dust cloud (MIT_C), minimum ignition energy (MIE), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC). To improve loss prevention in the manufacturing process, ferric oxide (Fe₂O₃) as an inert additive was added in the ABS powder. According to the MIE test, Fe₂O₃ has an apparent inhibiting effect on dust explosion for the ABS dust. With the proportion of Fe₂O₃ increased from 25 to 50 mass% in ABS, the MIE increased from 67 to 540 mJ. The explosion tests via 20-L apparatus indicated that Fe₂O₃ mixed with ABS could not increase the MEC significantly. However, the explosion pressure dropped by increasing in the ratio of Fe₂O₃ in ABS. This inerting strategy of ABS was deemed to substantially lessen the probability and severity of fire and explosion.     

云对太阳紫外辐射的影响

云对到达地面的太阳紫外辐射有着重要的影响,根据在香河综合观测站１年的观测资料,利用相关分析,得到了计算云天条件下太阳紫外总辐射的一种经验公式,计算结果比较令人满意。对阴天太阳紫外总辐射的减弱作了简单的分析。     

层状云酸化过程的数值模拟

修正和发展了一维层状云物理化学模式,该模式包括了详细的气?液相反应和光辐射传输,在我国东部地区平均污染水平下模拟了降水酸化过程?结果表明:光解系数在云顶为无云时的2～3倍,在云底则为无云时的0.2倍;自由基对S(Ⅳ)的氧化在降水后期可超过H₂O₂,并致使SO2-₄和NO-₃浓度在降水后期有逐渐增长的趋势;由于H₂SO₄和HNO₃的不断生成以及NH3和气溶胶的洗脱,地面雨水酸度持续上升?      

重大危险源事故风险预警技术研究

重大危险源事故风险预警技术是事故控制技术中的一大研究重点。本文通过对比分析安全生产领域常用事故预警模型的优缺点,总结了事故预警模型的发展趋势,提出了基于模糊综合评判技术和动态模糊神经网络技术的重大危险源事故风险预警模型,详细陈述其构建过程,最后对液化石油气蒸气云爆炸事故应用该模型,得到了较好的预测效果,实现了风险程度的定量化预警。该预警模型具有快速的自学习能力和容错能力,能够同时处理多种风险因素、自动生成模糊规则并满足预警系统的实时性要求,可应用于重大危险源在线监控预警系统,为企业端和政府端监管者提供有效的重大危险源事故风险定量化预警信息,为遏制重大灾难事故的发生、减少死亡人、数受伤人数和直接经济损失提供先进的理论和技术支撑。     

山区村镇洪灾承灾能力评估——以神农架林区为例

针对我国山区村镇洪灾特点,以神农架林区为对象,提出了基于云模型的洪灾承灾能力评价方法。针对山区村镇条件和山洪特点,构建评估指标体系;建立基于逆向云发生器和综合云算法结合专家打分区间和最可能值确定指标权重、使用条件云发生器获得量化指标的评价水平、耦合得到评价结果的评价方法,并对全区八个乡镇的山洪承灾能力进行了评估,为林区规划提供科学依据。结果表明,林区各村镇山洪承灾能力总体较低,孕灾环境恶劣,专项应灾能力明显落后,其中松柏镇、阳日镇、红坪镇和下谷坪乡属于低水平,木鱼镇与新华镇属于较低水平,宋洛乡属于中等水平,九湖镇为高水平。案例结果表明该方法能够直观地将客观数据和主观认识反映为综合结果,有利于获得可靠的结论。     

南京夏季气溶胶吸湿增长因子和云凝结核的观测研究

为了更加全面地研究长三角地区气溶胶的理化特性,尤其是吸湿和活化特性,于2013年8月在南京市区对气溶胶的吸湿增长因子(GF)和云凝结核(CCN)展开相关观测研究.使用串联电迁移率颗粒物吸湿粒径分析仪(H-TDMA)观测32~350nm气溶胶在相对湿度为90%条件下的吸湿性参数,使用云凝结核计数器(CCNC)观测过饱和度在0.2%~0.8%的CCN数浓度.结果表明,不同气溶胶粒子的吸湿增长行为均表现出较为明显的双峰分布,即一个强吸湿模态和一个弱吸湿模态,且吸湿性在不同粒径(爱根核模态和积聚模态)上存在较为明显的不同,不溶性物质和二次气溶胶所占比重较大,并且在稳定的天气条件下,气溶胶的混合状态表现为由外混向内混发展的过程.观测期间该区域CCN的平均数浓度为13776(0.6%)cm-3,比沿海区、山区、干旱地区及清洁城市地区要高很多.其日变化表现为中午时刻出现峰值,影响因素主要与光化学反应有关.同时25日出现的轻雾过程对CCN有较为明显的清除作用.通过吸湿性参数计算得到的CCN数浓度和实际观测得到的CCN数浓度进行了闭合实验,结果显示出较好的相关性,表明将未饱和条件下观测得到的吸湿性参数带入到K?hler方程中,即可预测过饱和条件下气溶胶的活化能力.