Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

应用S-T模型对沉积物中PAHs的生态风险分级评价

本文构建S-T模型,运用集对分析理论（set pair analysis）构建基本模型,采用层次分析法并参考毒性当量因子确定各指标权重,应用三角模糊数（triangular fuzzy number）对差异度系数进行改进,基于加拿大沉积物环境质量标准,对沉积物中多环芳烃进行生态风险分级评价.结果表明,该模型考虑到化合物之间的相互作用因素并做模糊处理,对差异度系数进行改进体现沉积物中多环芳烃生态风险等级标准的模糊性,为持久性有机污染物生态风险分级评价提供了一种简便客观有效的方法.     

大顶子山航电枢纽工程建库后上游水质总量控制研究

松花江大顶子山枢纽工程建设后,库区内水体流线及扩散规律的变化将影响库区内水质,受沿江排污影响,其规划目标的水环境容量将发生改变,因此对建库后上游水质总量控制进行研究很有意义.     

Optimizing the atmospheric sampling sites using fuzzy mathematic methods

A new approach applying fuzzy mathematic theorems, including the Primary Matrix Element Theorem and the Fisher Classification Method, was established to solve the optimization problem of atmospheric environmental sampling sites. According to its basis, an application in the optimization of sampling sites in the atmospheric environmental monitoring was discussed. The method was proven to be suitable and effective. The results were admitted and applied by the Environmental Protection Bureau (EPB) of many cities of China. A set of computer software of this approach was also comuletelv comniled and used.     

浙江省火电厂废水处理系统运行现状及建议

在综合调查省内各火电厂废水处理系统运行现状的基础上，总结了各类废水处理系统的特点及其运行中存在的问题，提出了改进意见。     

燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染防治技术的选择及评价--中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染综合防治对策(八)

论述了中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染防治技术的选择及评价，其中主要包括：《中国燃煤工业锅炉SO2污染综合防治对策》的产生、主要内容、特点、选择、评价及其实施的意义。     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

75t/h燃煤锅炉汞迁移转化规律研究

通过对2台75 t/h循环流化床锅炉烟气中汞排放浓度、燃煤和其他固体副产物中的汞含量进行测试,分析了燃煤大气汞的排放因子,并建立了燃煤汞的质量平衡。结果表明:燃煤锅炉中,大部分汞主要存在于烟气和脱硫副产物中,燃烧后进入炉渣、飞灰中的汞含量较少,低于5%。燃煤汞排放去向与脱硫除尘控制技术有关,不同控制技术协同除汞的效果差异较大,而单质汞是燃煤锅炉汞污染防治的重点和难点。