IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

基于密码技术的计算机安全防护体系

密码技术是实现网络安全的关键技术之一,本文首先介绍密码技术的基本概念,然后着重讨论建立密码防护体系的基本思想和密码防护体系,加密算法,并详细探讨了密钥的管理方法和密码技术的应用。     

城市污水处理计算机控制系统的应用研究

本文通过对污水处理行业所采取的计算机控制系统进行比较分析 ,得出结论 :采用基于现场总线的PC +PLC分级分布式控制形式 ,能够使系统具有很高的性能 /价格比。同时 ,将此结构进行拓展 ,成功应用于我国第一座自主开发的城市污水处理厂———沈阳南部污水处理示范厂。在系统中采用就地操作BIU +MFP(基本接口单元 +微现场处理单元 )与主PLC相结合的控制结构 ,通过GeniusBus(现场总线 )技术实现通讯处理 ,达到节约投资、提高系统安全性的目的     

胡敏酸对铜的鱼鳃生物有效性影响的计算机模拟

以彩虹方头鱼为模拟对象,用鱼鳃微环境测定装置和化学平衡计算方法(MINTEQA2),计算了含和不含胡敏酸的人工河水及暴露于其中的鱼鳃微环境中,不同pH条件下,铜的形态分布.研究了胡敏酸对鱼鳃内外的铜的形态分布及其生物有效性的影响,并讨论了pH对此的影响.计算结果表明,当胡敏酸存在时,胡敏酸络合态铜成为鱼鳃内外铜形态分布体系中的优势态,并引起铜生物有效性的降低.鱼鳃粘液和胡敏酸的共同作用使鱼鳃微环境中的生物有效铜含量低于外部水相.pH对铜形态分布及生物有效性的影响主要发生在碱性环境下.     

有机污染物土地生物处理过程动态规律模拟研究

应用土壤颗粒内部有机污染物屏蔽理论,说明土地生物处理过程中残余有机污染物在土壤中的滞留现象,提出描述有机污染物在土壤及相连的水环境中生物降解过程的数学模型.其中,污染物的扩散过程用Fick第二扩散定律表示,可逆的吸附和解吸过程用线性吸附等温线表示,不可逆的土壤颗粒内部屏蔽过程用假一级反应动力学方程表示,生物降解过程用Monod动力学方程表示.模型计算结果与实验结果基本拟合,表示模型基本可靠.利用该数学模型,可以定量预测有机污染物进行土地生物处理所需的时间、处理的程度及动态规律.     

The impact of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons on the tropospheric budget of carbon monoxide

A method to quantify the relative contributions of surface sources and photochemical production of atmospheric carbon monoxide has been implemented in a three-dimensional chemical-transport model. The impact of biogenic and anthropogenic hydrocarbons has been calculated. The oxidation of isoprene contributes to about 10% of the global tropospheric burden of carbon monoxide, with a maximum contribution over southern America and Africa. Oxidation of methane and terpenes contribute to 28 and 2%, respectively, of the tropospheric burden of CO. The oxidation of the other hydrocarbons, which include ethane, propane, ethylene, propylene and the surrogate hydrocarbon representing other hydrocarbons results in 12% of the CO tropospheric burden, among which 69% results from the oxidation of hydrocarbons of biologic origin. The overall global CO yield from the oxidation of isoprene is estimated to be 23% on a carbon basis. Comparisons between model results and the few available observations of isoprene, terpenes and their oxidation products show that there is no evidence that the current global isoprene emissions proposed in the IGAC/GEIA emissions data base are substantially overestimated, as suggested by previous studies.     

A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

AN EMPIRICALLY‐BASED SEQUENTIAL GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN PROCEDURE1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using a simple, empirically‐based model that makes efficient use of available information has been developed for designing a ground water monitoring well network. A moving plume is described by siting wells in a sequential manner, relying upon two‐dimensional concentration data obtained from previously installed wells to determine the locations of future wells. Data sets from two well known, densely monitored natural gradient tracer studies were used to test the procedure. Plumes defined by all information in the original networks were compared to those defined by reduced networks designed by the new procedure. The new procedure tracked the plumes using only a portion of that information. The new procedure could have reduced the number of wells in the original tests by about 50 percent without appreciable loss of plume information as measured by plume location and extent and by tracer mass.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS‐BASED FLOOD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR FLOODPLAIN MODELING AND DAMAGE CALCULATION1

ABSTRACT: This work presents a flexible system called GIS‐based Flood Information System (GFIS) for floodplain modeling, flood damages calculation, and flood information support. It includes two major components, namely floodplain modeling and custom designed modules. Model parameters and input data are gathered, reviewed, and compiled using custom designed modules. Through these modules, it is possible for GFIS to control the process of flood‐plain modeling, presentation of simulation results, and calculation of flood damages. Empirical stage‐damage curves are used to calculate the flood damages. These curves were generated from stage‐damage surveys of anthropogenic structures, crops, etc., in the coastal region of a frequently flooded area in Chia‐I County, Taiwan. The average annual flood damages are calculated with exceedance probability and flood damages for the designed rainfalls of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year recurrence intervals with a duration of 24 hours. The average annual flood depth in this study area can also be calculated using the same method. The primary advantages of GFIS are its ability to accurately predict the locations of flood area, depth, and duration; calculate flood damages in the floodplain; and compare the reduction of flood damages for flood mitigation plans.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS ON A SEMIARID PONDEROSA PINE HILLSLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Detailed measurements of soil moisture and ET in semiarid forest environments have not been widely reported in the literature. In this study, soil moisture and water balance components were measured over a four‐year period on a semiarid ponderosa pine hillslope, with evapotranspiration (ET) determined as the residual of measured precipitation, runoff, and change in soil moisture storage. ET accounts for approximately 95 percent of the water budget and has a distinctly bimodal annual pattern, with peaks occurring after spring snowmelt and during the late summer monsoon season, periods that coincide with high soil moisture. Weekly growing season ET rates determined by the hillslope water balance are found to be invariably below calculated potential rates. Normalized ET rates are linearly correlated (r²= 0.62) with soil moisture; therefore, a simple linear relation is proposed. Growing season soil moisture dynamics were modeled based on this relation. Results are in fair agreement (r²= 0.63) with the observed soil moisture data over the four growing seasons; however, for two dry summers with little surface runoff, much better results (r² > 0.90) were obtained.