Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data

Abstract:  Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) . Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.     

Fungicidal activity and molecular modeling of fusarubin analogues from Fusarium oxysporum

Abstract

Fusarubin analogues of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris were investigated for antifungal activity in vitro against five soil borne phytopathogenic fungi. 3-O-Methyl-8-O-methyl-fusarubin was inhibitory towards S. sclerotiorum (EC₅₀ 0.33?mmol L^?1) and Sclerotium rolfsii (EC₅₀ 0.38?mmol L^?1). A structure–antifungal activity relationship of fusarubin analogues was established from their activity performance. Possible mechanism of action of these compounds was studied using molecular docking and simulations against three target enzymes which revealed receptor ligand binding affinity. Docking of 3-O-methyl-8-O-methyl-fusarubin into the succinate dehydrogenase site revealed formation of salt bridge, hydrogen bond, π–anion, π–alkyl, and Van der Waals interactions.     

Risk Assessment of Riparian Plant Invasions into Protected Areas

Abstract:  Protected areas are becoming increasingly isolated. River corridors represent crucial links to the surrounding landscape but are also major conduits for invasion of alien species. We developed a framework to assess the risk that alien plants in watersheds adjacent to a protected area will invade the protected area along rivers. The framework combines species- and landscape-level approaches and has five key components: (1) definition of the geographical area of interest, (2) delineation of the domain into ecologically meaningful zones, (3) identification of the appropriate landscape units, (4) categorization of alien species and mapping of their distribution and abundance, and (5) definition of management options. The framework guides the determination of species distribution and abundance through successive, easily followed steps, providing the means for the assessment of areas of concern. We applied the framework to Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa. We recorded 231 invasive alien plant species (of which 79 were major invaders) in the domain. The KNP is facing increasing pressure from alien species in the upper regions of the drainage areas of neighboring watersheds. On the basis of the climatic modeling, we showed that most major riparian invaders have the ability to spread across the KNP should they be transported down the rivers. With this information, KNP managers can identify areas for proactive intervention, monitoring, and resource allocation. Even for a very large protected area such as the KNP, sustainable management of biodiversity will depend heavily on the response of land managers upstream managing alien plants. We suggest that this framework is applicable to plants and other passively dispersed species that invade protected areas situated at the end of a drainage basin.     

基于神经网络的活性污泥系统建模及其控制

针对松江污水厂污水处理活性污泥系统,采用神经网络技术进行建模试验研究,在对实际运行数据剔除异常数据后,将样本数据随机分成训练样本、检验样本和测试样本.用试凑法确定合理的神经网络隐层节点数,用检验样本实时监控训练过程从而避免"过训练"现象,用多次改变网络初始连接权值求得全局极小点,从而建立了泛化能力较好的基于神经网络的活性污泥系统数学模型.利用建立的神经网络模型,对活性污泥系统运行情况的仿真与控制进行了分析研究.示例研究表明:神经网络技术能较好地应用于活性污泥系统的建模与控制,有很好的理论与实践意义.     

WGH型格栅除污机电控系统设计与应用

针对目前一些污水处理入口处仍然采用人工打捞法或格栅机械仪表控制法而产生的各种故障及作业效率低等原因 ,设计了以MCS 5 1单片机为核心的电控系统设计方案 ,研究建立了相应的算法模式 ,并对其设计误差进行了分析 ,提出了保证设备安全和对事故隐患进行摆脱的方法 ,使用结果表明 ,完全可实现打捞过程自动控制及作业工况远程监控 ,提高了系统的安全可靠性及作业效率。该电控系统在同类设备技术中尚未见公开报道。     

Preliminary 3-D site-scale studies of radioactive colloid transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain,Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is actively investigating the technical feasibility of permanent disposal of high-level nuclear waste in a repository to be situated in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. In this study we investigate, by means of numerical simulation, the transport of radioactive colloids under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table. The site hydrology and the effects of the spatial distribution of hydraulic and transport properties in the Yucca Mountain subsurface are considered. The study of migration and retardation of colloids accounts for the complex processes in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, and includes advection, diffusion, hydrodynamic dispersion, kinetic colloid filtration, colloid straining, and radioactive decay. The results of the study indicate that the most important factors affecting colloid transport are the subsurface geology and site hydrology, i.e., the presence of faults (they dominate and control transport), fractures (the main migration pathways), and the relative distribution of zeolitic and vitric tuffs. The transport of colloids is strongly influenced by their size (as it affects diffusion into the matrix, straining at hydrogeologic unit interfaces, and transport velocity) and by the parameters of the kinetic-filtration model used for the simulations. Arrival times at the water table decrease with an increasing colloid size because of smaller diffusion, increased straining, and higher transport velocities. The importance of diffusion as a retardation mechanism increases with a decreasing colloid size, but appears to be minimal in large colloids.     

The distribution of the chlorinated solvents dichloromethane,perchloroethylene, and trichloroethylene in the global atmosphere

Dichloromethane, perchloroethylene, and trichloroethylene are commercially important chlorinated solvents whose health and environmental impacts are under scrutiny in the industrial world. Their distributions in the global atmosphere have been computed based on data from the Reactive Chlorine Emissions Inventory (RCEI) project using the Global Balance Environment (GLOBE) model, a 3-D radiative-dynamical-chemical model. Their atmospheric lifetimes, scaled to an observed methyl chloroform lifetime of 4.8 years, are 158 days, 105 days, and 4.3 days, respectively. They have strong interhemispheric gradients, with maximum zonal mean surface concentrations in the winter mid-latitude northern hemisphere of approximately 40 ppt, 9 ppt, and 2.5 ppt, respectively. Their spatial distributions show significant seasonal variability, and are sensitive to vertical mixing by cumulus convection and horizontal mixing by synoptic-scale turbulence. While the model interhemispheric exchange time (1.0 years) and computed atmospheric lifetimes are very sensitive to sub-grid scale diffusion, interhemispheric gradients of the chlorinated solvents are not. The simulated results suggest a greater importance for oceanic emissions of perchloroethylene and trichloroethylene than has previously been assumed.     

活性污泥法污水处理过程自动控制的研究现状

活性污泥法污水处理是利用自然界中微生物的生命活动来清除污水中有机污染物的一种有效方法 ,是当前世界上处理工业有机污水和城市生活污水的主要途径。本文综述了污水处理过程中自动控制所面临的困难、研究现状以及发展方向 ,分析了目前国内外污水处理过程自动化水平落后而仍采用人工控制的原因 ,阐述了污水处理过程的传统控制策略和智能控制策略 ,并指出智能控制作为污水生化处理过程控制的未来发展方向 ,可以大大提高系统的可靠性和稳定性、降低运行成本     

Limitations of Biodiversity Databases: Case Study on Seed-Plant Diversity in Tenerife, Canary Islands

Abstract:  Databases on the distribution of species can be used to describe the geographic patterns of biodiversity. Nevertheless, they have limitations. We studied three of these limitations: (1) inadequacy of raw data to describe richness patterns due to sampling bias, (2) lack of survey effort assessment (and lack of exhaustiveness in compiling data about survey effort), and (3) lack of coverage of the geographic and environmental variations that affect the distribution of organisms. We used a biodiversity database (BIOTA-Canarias) to analyze richness data from a well-known group (seed plants) in an intensively surveyed area (Tenerife Island). Observed richness and survey effort were highly correlated. Species accumulation curves could not be used to determine survey effort because data digitalization was not exhaustive, so we identified well-sampled sites based on observed richness to sampling effort ratios. We also developed a predictive model based on the data from well-sampled sites and analyzed the origin of the geographic errors in the obtained extrapolation by means of a geographically constrained cross-validation. The spatial patterns of seed-plant species richness obtained from BIOTA-Canarias data were incomplete and biased. Therefore, some improvements are needed to use this database (and many others) in biodiversity studies. We propose a protocol that includes controls on data quality, improvements on data digitalization and survey design to improve data quality, and some alternative data analysis strategies that will provide a reliable picture of biodiversity patterns.     

Bayesian areal wombling via adjacency modeling

Recently, public health professionals and other geostatistical researchers have shown increasing interest in boundary analysis, the detection or testing of zones or boundaries that reveal sharp changes in the values of spatially oriented variables. For areal data (i.e., data which consist only of sums or averages over geopolitical regions), Lu and Carlin (Geogr Anal 37: 265–285, 2005) suggested a fully model-based framework for areal wombling using Bayesian hierarchical models with posterior summaries computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and showed the approach to have advantages over existing non-stochastic alternatives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian areal boundary analysis methods that estimate the spatial neighborhood structure using the value of the process in each region and other variables that indicate how similar two regions are. Boundaries may then be determined by the posterior distribution of either this estimated neighborhood structure or the regional mean response differences themselves. Our methods do require several assumptions (including an appropriate prior distribution, a normal spatial random effect distribution, and a Bernoulli distribution for a set of spatial weights), but also deliver more in terms of full posterior inference for the boundary segments (e.g., direct probability statements regarding the probability that a particular border segment is part of the boundary). We illustrate three different remedies for the computing difficulties encountered in implementing our method. We use simulation to compare among existing purely algorithmic approaches, the Lu and Carlin (2005) method, and our new adjacency modeling methods. We also illustrate more practical modeling issues (e.g., covariate selection) in the context of a breast cancer late detection data set collected at the county level in the state of Minnesota.