Risk-Based Viable Population Monitoring

Abstract:  We describe risk-based viable population monitoring, in which the monitoring indicator is a yearly prediction of the probability that, within a given timeframe, the population abundance will decline below a prespecified level. Common abundance-based monitoring strategies usually have low power to detect declines in threatened and endangered species and are largely reactive to declines. Comparisons of the population's estimated risk of decline over time will help determine status in a more defensible manner than current monitoring methods. Monitoring risk is a more proactive approach; critical changes in the population's status are more likely to be demonstrated before a devastating decline than with abundance-based monitoring methods. In this framework, recovery is defined not as a single evaluation of long-term viability but as maintaining low risk of decline for the next several generations. Effects of errors in risk prediction techniques are mitigated through shorter prediction intervals, setting threshold abundances near current abundance, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates. Viable population monitoring also intrinsically adjusts monitoring effort relative to the population's true status and exhibits considerable robustness to model misspecification. We present simulations showing that risk predictions made with a simple exponential growth model can be effective monitoring indicators for population dynamics ranging from random walk to density dependence with stable, decreasing, or increasing equilibrium. In analyses of time-series data for five species, risk-based monitoring warned of future declines and demonstrated secure status more effectively than statistical tests for trend.     

立式金属油罐容积编表计算机自动查询与计算系统

介绍了立式金属油罐容积编表计算机自动查询与计算系统的设计思想，查询计算原理，功能及实现，程序的编制及调试，应用及测试等，该系统的建立旨在克服人工查询与计算方法的计算繁琐，费时，易出差错的缺点，达到了本质安全。     

中国环境中氮循环的动态模式

对中国960万km~2范围内氮的生物地球化学循环作了初步探讨。该工作建立在对大气、土、生物及水圈界面氮的流通量的研究基础上,以数学方式模拟氮的生物地球化学循环规律,并预测各圈中氮的库存量和流通量的变化趋势。经过验证,模式的收敛性、稳定性及可信度均是好的。     

海岸地区三维风场与污染物输送扩散模式

首先建立了一个复杂地形条件下的中尺度三维边界层预报模式,模拟研究了局地海陆风环流条件下的三维风场。并将其输出直接作为一个三维欧拉数值模式的输入,以模拟沿海地区海陆风演变过程中,空气污染物(SO_2)浓度的时空分布。为更接近实际,还专门建立了一个只需少量常规气象资料输入的背景风诊断模式。较好地完成了这三个模式间的联接。实例模拟计算的结果表明,此联接模式是行之有效的。     

公路建设项目环境影响评价软件RoadEIA介绍

介绍了公路建设项目环境影响评价软件RoadEIA的框架及软件各部分的功能，举了一个用该软件进行评价的工程实例，最后分析总结了该软件的特点。     

散化码头化学品水污染危害性评估模式研究

提出散化码头三类典型液体化学品水污染危害性评估模式 ,并建立其计算扩散模型。     

The effects of managerial and employee attributions for corporate social responsibility initiatives

Although corporate social responsibility (CSR) can affect employees, we know little about how it affects them. Employees' interpretation of CSR is important because of the paradoxical nature of CSR. When firms operate in ways that seem counter to their nature (i.e., pursuit of social good rather than profit), the causal attributions of affected employees are crucial to understanding their work‐related behavior, as is the role of contextual factors such as leadership processes in shaping these attributions. Drawing from attribution and social learning theories, we develop a multilevel social influence theory of how CSR affects employees. We integrate managers as second observers in the baseline actor (i.e., firm)—observer (i.e., employee) dyad, whereas most attribution theory research has focused on single actor–observer dyads. Multisource field data collected from 427 employees and 45 managers were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling. Managers' genuine (self‐serving) CSR attributions are positively related to employees' genuine (self‐serving) CSR attributions; and the strength of the relationship between managers' and employees' genuine CSR attributions depends on managers' organizational tenure. Employees' genuine CSR attributions also are positively related to employee advocacy, whereas—interestingly—employees' self‐serving CSR attributions do not appear to harm employee advocacy. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SEM的双车道公路超车行为安全评价

为提高驾驶人在双车道公路上超车的安全性,基于tau理论适应性分析,提出超车过程中驾驶人不仅根据tau线索估计避碰时间,也利用距离、速度、加速度等判断超车是否安全的试验假设。招募12名受试者,应用驾驶模拟系统试验平台,依据试验假设采集12个与超车行为有关的驾驶行为数据,对其进行无量纲化处理,并利用Bootstrap法对数据进行扩增。结合驾驶行为问卷得分,利用AMOS软件,建立超车行为安全评价的结构方程模型。通过对初始假设模型进行多次修正与评价,得到影响超车行为安全的3个驾驶行为参数。结果表明,超车车辆在超车并道后的速度、与前导车之间的避碰时间及与对向车辆之间的避碰时间这3个驾驶行为参数可作为超车行为安全评价的有效指标。     

Safety effectiveness and crash cost benefit of red light cameras in Missouri

Objective: Red light cameras (RLCs) have generated heated discussions over issues of safety effectiveness, revenue generation, and procedural due process. This study focuses on the safety evaluation of RLCs in Missouri, including the economic valuation of safety benefits. The publication of the national Highway Safety Manual (HSM; American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) in 2010 produced statistical safety models for intersections and spurred the calibration of these models to local conditions.

Methods: This study adds to existing knowledge by applying the latest statistical methodology presented in the HSM and more current data. Driver behavior constantly changes due in part to driving conditions and the use of technology. The safety and economic benefit evaluation was performed using the empirical Bayes method, which accounts for regression to the mean bias. For the economic benefit evaluation, the KABCO crash severity scale and crash cost estimates were used. A total of 24 4-leg urban intersections were randomly selected from a master list of RLCs in Missouri from 2006 to 2011. Additionally, 35 comparable nontreated intersections were selected for the analysis.

Results and Conclusions: The implementation of RLCs reduced overall angle crashes by 11.6%, whereas rear-end crashes increased by 16.5%. The net economic crash cost benefit of the implementation of RLCs was $35,269 per site per year in 2001 dollars (approximately $47,000 in 2015 dollars). Thus, RLCs produced a sizable net positive safety benefit that is consistent with previous statistical studies.