An Integrated Approach Towards Assessing the Value of Water: A Case Study on the Zambezi Basin

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for assessing the value of water in the different stages in the water cycle. It is hypothesised that if a cubic metre of water provides some benefit in some spot at a certain moment, this cubic metre of water has a certain value not only at that point in space and time, but in its previous stages within the water cycle as well. This means that, while water particles flow from upstream to downstream, water values ‘flow’ in exactly the opposite direction. The value of water in a certain place is equal to its value in situ plus an accumulated value derived from downstream. This value-flow concept is elaborated for the Zambezi basin. It is found that water produces the smallest direct economic benefits in the upper part of the Zambezi basin. However, water flows in this part of the basin − due to their upstream location − have the highest indirect values. Return flows from the water-using sectors are particularly valuable in the upstream sub-basins. The analysis shows that the value per unit of river water increases if we go from downstream to upstream. Another finding of the study is that percolation of rainwater is generally more valuable than surface runoff. Finally, a plan to export water from the river Zambezi to South Africa is evaluated in terms of its opportunity costs. The results of this study show that the value-flow concept offers the possibility of accounting for the cyclic nature of water when estimating its value. It is stressed, however, that for the current study many crude assumptions had to be made, so that the exact numbers presented should be regarded with extreme caution. Further research is necessary to provide more precise and validated estimates. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

大型底栖动物快速评价指数BMWP在太子河流域的应用

大型底栖动物快速生物评价方法可快速判断河流在人为活动影响下的生态状况,对河流健康评价研究和河流保护与管理具有重要的意义。基于太子河46个样点的大型底栖动物监测数据,探讨大型底栖动物生物监测工作组(Biological Monitoring Working Party,BMWP)指数的适用性。采用方差分析研究了BMWP指数对重要水环境参数的响应程度,研究结果表明BMWP指数随地表水水质级别的降低呈显著地下降趋势。利用回归分析研究了BMWP指数与其他生物指数、生境状况的回归关系,结果显示BMWP指数与底栖动物香农多样性指数(R2=0.74)、底栖动物完整性指数(R2=0.85)以及生境质量评估指数(R2=0.60)均呈显著线性回归关系(p0.01),表明BMWP指数可以有效指示与反映不同河段的生物状况及其栖息地质量。利用BMWP指数对采样点进行的河流健康评价结果显示太子河46个采样点中,极好和良好的采样点占45.7%,一般的样点占21.7%,差和极差的样点为32.6%。BMWP指数对河流生态状况指示灵敏,能够准确反映河流健康状况。同时,野外监测、物种鉴定和指数计算简便,是河流健康评价中表征能力较强的快速生物评价指数。     

基于土地利用变化的生态服务价值损益估算——以岷江上游地区为例

为了定量分析和比较区域生态服务功能及其价值变化,运用中国生态系统服务价值当量因子表和岷江上游流域单位面积农田生态系统提供的食物生产服务的经济价值,以及分析1986、1995和2000年三期TM遥感影像所得到的土地利用情况,对岷江上游地区不同年代的生态服务价值变化进行了估算和比较。并初步分析了生态服务价值变化的原因。1986~1995年,农田面积增加了60 801 hm2,比1986年增长了477%。林地面积减少了89 01217 hm2,占原来面积的497%。总的生态服务价值从1986年到2000年减少了1199×108元。主要是由于人口的增加和森林的砍伐,导致森林面积减少,转变为草地、农田等土地利用类型。通过1995年和2000年对比得出：自从1998年实施“天然林保护工程”政策以来,到2000年森林生态系统面积与1995年相差约4 16528 hm2,生态服务价值相差约79亿元,可见国家政策在保护生态系统服务功能上虽起到了一定的作用,但与1986年相比还相差甚远,天然林保护工程任重而道远。     

Temperature dependence of the absolute rate constant for the reaction of ozone with dimethyl sulfide

Absolute rate constants for the reaction of ozone with dimethyl sulfide (DMS) were measured in a 200-L Teflon chamber over the temperature range of 283-353 K. Measurements were carried out using DMS in large excess over ozone of 10 to 1 or greater. Over the indicated temperature range,the data could be fit to the simple Arrhenius expression as KDMS = (9.96±3.61)×10-11exp(-(7309.7±1098.2)/T)cm3/(molecule·s). A compared investigation of the reaction between ozone and ethene had a kc2H4 value of(1.35±0.11)×10-18 cm3/(molecule·s) at room temperature.     

Dechlorination of carbon tetrachloride by the catalyzed Fe-Cu process

The electrochemical reduction characteristics of carbon tetrachloride (CT) were investigated using cyclic voltammetry in this study. In addition, the difference in reduction mechanisms of CT between Master Builders' iron and the catalyzed Fe-Cu process was discussed. The results showed that CT was reduced directly on the surface of copper rather than by atomic hydrogen produced at the cathode in the catalyzed Fe-Cu process. The reduction was realized largely by atomic hydrogen in Master Builders' iron. The entire CT in 350 ml aqueous solution with 320 mgL was reduced to trichloromethane and dichloromethane in 2.25 h when 100 g of scrap iron with FeCu ratio of 10:1 (ww) were used. Moreover, the reduction rate slowed with time. CT could be reduced at acidic, neutral and alkaline pH from solution by Fe-Cu bimetallic media, but the mechanisms were di?erent. The degradation rate was not significantly in?uenced by pH in the catalyzed Fe-Cu process; in Master Builders' iron it clearly increased with decreasing pH. The kinetics of the reductions followed pseudo-first order in both cases. Furthermore, the reductions under acidic conditions proceeded faster than that under the neutral and alkaline conditions. The catalyzed Fe-Cu process was superior to Master Builders' iron in treating CT-containing water and this advantage was particularly noticeable under alkaline conditions. The reduction was investigated in the cathode (Cu) and anode (Fe) compartments respectively, the results showed that the direct reduction pathway played an important role in the reduction by the catalyzed Fe-Cu process. The catalyzed Fe-Cu process is of practical value.     

基于随机过程的城市应急车辆数量配置模型

针对城市中应急车辆的配置规模问题,运用随机过程理论,获得系统中空闲应急车辆数量期望值模型。在一定的事件需求下,空闲应急车辆数量期望值与应急车辆配置总量、平均的事件发生间隔时间成正比,与平均的事件救援时间成反比。克服了采用马尔可夫过程分析多用于应急车辆繁忙期以及布局研究的局限。以某市火灾统计数据为例,说明了模型的使用,为在宏观上合理确定城市应急车辆的配置规模提供理论依据。     

安全政策评估分析与研究

分析了安全政策评估的内涵和主要内容及安全政策评估的必要性;对安全政策评估的类型进行了分类与阐述,着重对安全政策评估系统构成的5个要素,即评估者、评估对象、评估目的、评估标准和评估方法进行了分析和研究;最后,对安全政策评估的步骤和基本方法进行了初步的探讨。认为:提出及早开展安全政策评估工作,对指导新政策的制定、已实施政策的修订、把握政策执行方向以及控制安全生产形势均有重要作用。     

风险管理决策方法探讨

分析了影响企业风险管理决策的主要因素,如生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值;进而研究如何将主要因素有机结合并作为风险管理决策的准则,得出风险管理决策时应依次将生存风险度、决策者的风险态度、决策方案的风险度及期望值作为决策依据的论断;通过例证说明具体的风险管理决策过程。结果表明:笔者所研究出的风险管理决策准则与方法能为企业风险管理者提供指导和借鉴。     

Perceived landscape impacts of mobile telecommunications development in the Peak District National Park,England

This study explored the public perceptions of mobile telecommunications development – new landscape elements installed to deliver new technology – in a protected area. It examined: (1) the perceived landscape impacts of such development; (2) the importance attached to the socio-economic value of mobile telecommunications; and (3) the factors underlying the perceived landscape impacts of mobile telecommunications development. A postal questionnaire survey was conducted in the Peak District National Park, England with 420 respondents drawn from National Park residents and visitors, urban dwellers and members of environmental organisations. The study suggests that: (1) there was a prevailing antipathy towards the landscape impacts of mobile telecommunications development in the National Park; (2) apart from emergency uses, the other socio-economic benefits of mobile telecommunications technology were thought to be relatively unimportant in the National Park; and (3) rather than socio-demographic characteristics, it was respondents' understandings of protected areas' needs for the technology and potential health risks that had significant effects on the perceived landscape impacts. Overall, this study suggests that the significance of National Park landscapes is respected by the public, even when setalongside the convenience of modern technology, which has substantial implications for landscape planning and management in protected areas.     

鼎湖山主要森林类型土壤pH值动态变化

鼎湖山主要森林类型土壤pH值都较低,但从1994年以来土壤酸化都得到了控制,pH值比较稳定。针叶林土壤pH值比混交林高,季风常绿阔叶林pH值最低。