基于优化组合赋权的煤层气开发风险评价研究

煤层气开发项目的高风险制约着我国煤层气产业的发展,为此,通过对煤层气开发风险因素的分析,基于煤层气开发特征构建由7个一级指标和34个二级指标构成的风险评价体系。运用离差平方和优化组合熵值法和三角模糊数法所得权重确定指标最佳权重,建立煤层气开发风险评价模型。最后,以沁水盆地南部柿庄南区块煤层气井为例进行实证评价,结果显示地质资源因素对该地区煤层气开发影响最大,其中渗透率的影响最为显著。研究表明:模型能优化主观评价和客观评价的赋权比重,最大化的减少主观因素对评价结果的影响,能客观合理的表达多指标间的对比差异,对煤层气开发风险进行可靠的定量化评价。为煤层气开发风险的控制和规避提供科学的理论依据。     

基于微震监测的岩体失稳智能预报

岩体稳定性预报是微震监测工作的重要组成部分。探讨微震活动性参数变化作为岩体稳定性预测的可行性,结合用沙坝矿实际生产过程中观测到的现象,提出微震监测岩体失稳预报的一般模式。根据b值在岩体失稳前先增大后减小的趋势作为危险预警初始条件;并将能量指数、施密特数急剧下降以及累积视体积增加的时间段作为岩体失稳的预警期,将事件数的急剧下降作为危险的临界状态。用沙坝矿根据这一原理建立的岩体失稳预报模式可以达到采场失稳的智能预报,解决了人工判别预警期过程中效率低的难题,保障矿山的生产工作。     

三江源区生态系统服务间接使用价值评估

论文利用替代成本法、机会成本法和影子工程法等经济学方法,对三江源区生态系统提供的间接使用价值进行了评估。研究结果表明:2008年三江源区生态系统的间接使用价值共计1.74×10¹¹元,其中水源涵养价值为1.07×10¹¹元,占61.38%,土壤保持价值为4.60×10¹⁰元,占26.50%,气候调节价值为2.01×10¹⁰元,占11.56%,空气质量调节价值为9.56×10⁸元,占0.55%。该结果突出反映了三江源区作为水源发源地在水量平衡、调节区域水分循环和改善水文状况等方面做出的贡献。     

Determining the tourism potential of the Altındere Valley National Park (Trabzon/Turkey) with respect to its conservation value

This study was conducted to determine the tourism potential of Alt?ndere Valley National Park with respect to its conservation and utilization. With its natural values, Alt?ndere Valley National Park is one of the internationally prominent areas of potential for the recreational and touristic facilities it offers.

A mathematical method – criterion referenced method – was applied within this study, which was done to portray the touristic potential (resulting from the touristic and recreational utilization of the national park area and recreational zone) of the national park, which was visited by an average of 200,000 local and foreign guests.

According to this method, the conservation and utilization values that appear on two opposite axes were examined in accordance with the natural resource values of the area, and conservation and utilization values for each criterion were determined. Depending on the data, the general exploitable touristic potential of the area was specified.

A survey study was conducted on groups from various disciplines and local & foreign tourists visiting the area in specifying the touristic potential of the National Park. Eleven criteria were defined concerning the area and a criterion reference was prepared for each criterion. Then, conservation and utilization values for each criterion and exploitable touristic potential were mathematically indicated. The fact that the attained values were reduced to a percentage basis provides the opportunity to compare the researched area to similar fields that use the same method. Within the scope of the method, several suggestions were made using the information obtained in the evaluation of the data for every other source value.     

The livestock production system in a village ecosystem in the Rawain Valley,Uttarakhand, Central Himalaya

Animals in the Himalayan region are reared basically to supplement the family income and sustain crop production, and constitute an important component of the rural economy of the region. Given the ecological importance of the livestock production system in terms of intrinsic values as a life support system for local people and a contribution towards sustainable agriculture through its role in the maintenance of soil fertility, the present study was conducted. This paper describes and assesses the current status of livestock production systems, monetary input/output, status of available forest resources, current level of pressure on the livestock production system and recommends strategies for sustainable development of a livestock production system in the Rawain Valley of Central Himalaya.     

Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study of Tianjin city

Reforms of the water pricing management system and the establishment of a flexible water pricing system are significant for cities in northern China to tackle their critical water issues. The WATAP (Water conservation Technology Adoption Processes) model is developed in order to capture the water conservation technology adoption process under different price scenarios with disaggregate water demands down to the end use level. This model is explicitly characterized by the technological selection process under maximum marginal benefit assumption by different categories of households. In particular, when households need to purchase water devices in the provision market with the consideration of complex factors such as the life span, investment and operating costs of the device, as well as the regulated water price by the government. Applied to Tianjin city, four scenarios of water price evolutions for a long-term perspective (from year 2011 to 2030) are considered, including BAU (Business As Usual), SP1 (Scenario of Price increase with constant annual rate), SP2 (Scenario of Price increase every four years) and SP3 (Scenario of Price increase with affordable constraint), considering many factors such as historic trends, affordability and incentives for conservation. Results show that on aggregate 2.3%, 11.0% and 18.2% of fresh water can be saved in the residential sector in scenario SP1, SP2 and SP3, respectively, compared with the BAU scenario in the year 2030. The water price signals can change the market shares of different water appliances, as well as the water end use structure of households, and ultimately improve water use efficiency. TheWATAP model may potentially be a helpful tool to provide insights for policy makers on water conservation technology policy analysis and assessment.     

Sustainable design of sanitation system based on material and value flow analysis for urban slum in Indonesia

Material flow analysis (MFA) and value flow analysis (VFA) were applied to the sanitation system in an urban slum in Indonesia. Based on the results of the MFA and VFA, garbage and excreta disposal costs were evaluated to be 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, of per capita income. Such value flows seem reasonable in light of the recognized affordability to pay (ATP) standard. However, current excreta disposal methods create negative impacts on downstream populations. Because such disadvantages do not go back to disposers, but passed to downstream, the current value flow structure does not motivate individual toilet users to install treatment facility. Based on current material and value flow structures, a resource recycling sanitation system scenario was examined. Based on VFA, an affordable initial cost for such a system was calculated; this was found to be comparable in price to a cheaper composting toilet that is currently available in the market.     

多元联系数的集对分析法在城市燃气埋地管道系统危险性评价中的应用

城市燃气埋地管道系统中存在诸多不确定因素,集对分析是处理不确定性问题的系统分析方法,它将系统中确定与不确定因素作为一个整体进行处理。针对多元联系数集对分析评价方法存在的不足,讨论其使用条件,运用集对分析的多元联系数对系统的危险等级进行划分。为了减轻评价者的主观影响,根据评价专家的综合素质,对评价专家进行权重赋值。最后将评价结果与集对势相结合对系统的危险性进行综合分析,使得评价结果更符合系统的发展变化特点。     

基于投影寻踪技术的洪水灾情综合评价

洪水灾情评价结果对救灾和援灾决策有重要指导意义。实际灾情评价中,单项指标的评价结果往往是不相容的,而多指标综合评价的重点在于模型指标权重的获取。将投影寻踪技术用于洪水灾情评价中,并将决策者的偏好添加到模型中,建立一个能在专家对某个(些)指标偏好干预下寻求客观权重的灾情综合评价模型,并研究模型的优化问题。结果表明,在多指标评价中,投影寻踪技术是一种能根据样本数据进行综合评价的客观方法,并能兼顾决策者对某个(些)指标的偏好。     

改进GM(1,1)模型在我国危险化学品事故预测中的应用

针对传统GM(1,1)模型建模方法存在偏差,当发展系数的绝对值较大时,模型偏差较大,无法用于中长期预测,甚至不能做短期预测等问题.从优化GM(1,1)背景值出发,通过提高背景值的构造精度,实现对传统GM(1,1)模型的改进,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现模型的模拟和预测,并将其应用于我国危险化学品事故起数及死亡人数预测.实例结果表明,改进GM(1,1)模型无论对变化平缓的低增长序列,还是变化急剧的高增长序列,都有较好的适应性,及更好的拟合和预测效果,为提高建模精度提供了新的途径.