动态群体安全投入博弈模拟*——以我国煤矿为例

为探究煤矿生产中的群体安全投入博弈特点,针对煤矿生产参与者面临的安全投入囚徒困境（SIPD）博弈,基于NetLogo模拟平台设计博弈模型,获取不同安全投入策略的工人群体变化、死亡情况和安全收益特征,探究不同安全环境对博弈结果的影响。研究结果表明:在低安全水平煤矿中,消极型工人（D-worker）可以利用积极型工人（C-worker）的安全投入,快速增加消极型群体规模,并攫取高达70%的安全收益,而在高安全水平煤矿中,在制裁型工人（T-worker）影响下,D-worker安全收益可被限制到20.4%。D-worker在恶劣安全环境中将成为主流,攫取最大安全收益,产生较高死亡率,并严重损害群体安全,扭转上述局面的短期方法为抑制群体消极心理,长期方法为逐步提高安全管理技术水平。研究结果可为我国煤矿安全水平提升提供安全投入策略参考。     

高校垃圾分类回收监管机制演化博弈分析

本文以高校和大学生为研究对象,运用博弈论方法,通过建立双方的演化博弈模型,分析了影响主体进行垃圾分类策略选择的不同因素。将对垃圾分类行为具有较强约束的"声誉资本"引入模型中,研究不同情况下的演化均衡策略。结果显示:①大学生是否采取垃圾分类行为主要与学生进行垃圾分类支付的成本C_1、大学生因不参与垃圾分类造成的声誉损失h、学校的惩罚P以及参与垃圾分类得到的奖励R等因素有关。②大学生因不参与垃圾分类造成的声誉损失h对学生分类行为的影响显著。③学校是否采取监管策略主要与监管成本C有关。研究结果对于高校和政府制定环境监管政策具有重要的现实意义。     

关于节能减排达标申报制度的信号博弈分析

恰到好处的奖罚制度是促成企业自觉环保或者监管机构积极监理的前提。特别地,为促成企业自觉地采取环保行动,必须加大针对监管机构不作为的惩戒力度,而不仅仅是进一步地提高针对企业环保行为的奖罚力度。这就给环境监管机构带来了莫大的压力。因此,为有效缓解监管机构的工作压力,有必要建立节能减排达标申报制度。基于节能减排达标申报制度的信号博弈分析,排放达标企业将如实申报自己的节能减排情况。但只要监管机构对于申报排放达标企业意思表示真实的信心足够高,排放未达标的企业就有动机虚假申报其节能减排的情况。因此,节能减排达标申报制度存在四种可能的运行状况,亦即存在四种可能的后继博弈精炼Bayes Nash均衡策略。其中的两个为分离均衡状态,另外两个则为混同于申报达标的均衡状态。两个混同均衡的效果极差,实际上意味着节能减排达标申报制度失效。只有在分离均衡1或2下,节能减排达标申报制度的运行才较为理想。而且分离均衡2的效果要优于分离均衡1。因此,建议完善现行的排污申报与登记制度,建立节能减排达标申报制度。并尽可能地加大针对达标企业的财政补贴力度以及针对未达标企业的惩罚力度,以便尽可能地降低节能减排达标企业错误申报的可能性。与此同时,还要严格政府监管机构的组织纪律,除了要求全面核查申报达标的企业,并加大针对政府监管机构不作为的惩戒力度之外,还应经由全面核查,对节能减排达标企业的环保工作评定等级,以便重奖优者。     

贫困地区农民真的从“新农合”中受益了吗

基本公共服务受益均等化要求新型农村合作医疗服务应有效地保障贫困地区的农民大致均等地享受该服务。本文运用边际受益归宿分析技术,实证测度了2007-2011年中国244个地级市(州)的新农合边际受益率,来探究贫困地区的农民是否真的从新农合中受益。研究发现:第一,与富裕地区相比,贫困地区的新农合边际受益率更高。2007-2011年,最贫困地区的新农合边际受益率分别为1.287 8、1.179 3、1.065 9、0.985 7和1.202 7,最富裕地区的新农合边际受益率分别为0.751 8、0.671 6、0.597 6、0.888 8和0.922 9。第二,从动态角度观察,贫困地区与富裕地区新农合边际受益率的差值在逐渐缩小。2007年,最贫困地区和最富裕地区的新农合边际受益率相差0.536 0,2011年,这一差值缩小为0.279 8。第三,传统的平均受益分析低估了贫困地区的新农合受益水平。以2007年为例,通过平均受益分析得到的最贫困地区的受益份额为24.20%,而边际受益归宿分析结果显示,最贫困地区从整体新农合受益提高中增加的受益份额达到了32.20%,较平均受益份额高出8个百分点,亦即,贫困地区的农民从新农合服务的扩张中可以获得更大的受益,在新农合服务的缩减中可能遭受更大的损失。本文的结论表明,国家在新农合中"亲贫"的政策倾向更多地惠及了贫困地区,新农合的受益均等化程度越来越高。为保证贫困地区的农民在更大程度上受益,政府应实施"精准医保扶贫",加大新农合投入;多元化新农合服务供给渠道,加强地区间协调配合;优化新农合资源配置,完善对地方政府和相关官员的激励约束机制,提高贫困地区新农合的生产效率。     

突发性能源短缺应急主体演化博弈研究

在突发性能源短缺事件的应急过程中能源供应链企业主观能动性差,普遍采取消极应对策略,研究能源短缺事件应急参与主体的行为策略,对于掌握影响应急主体行为的关键因素和突发性能源短缺事件的发展演化机理,改善中国能源应急过度依赖政府力量的现状具有重要意义。本文基于演化博弈理论构建突发性能源短缺应急主体的博弈模型,研究政府和能源供应链企业两个主体之间的博弈关系,通过对博弈系统进行稳定性分析和演化稳定策略分析,依据能源供应链企业应急成本、政府惩罚力度以及两个主体的协同收益等参数之间的关系得到九种情形,其中在四种情形下博弈系统存在长期演化稳定策略,且能源供应链企业在四种情形下的长期演化稳定策略均为积极应对。结果表明能源应急主体的行为策略选择受到协同收益、政府惩罚力度及能源供应链企业应急成本等参数的影响,且只有当能源供应链企业的应急成本较低或者协同收益较高时,系统才可能存在演化稳定策略,能源供应链企业才有可能在长期反复的博弈过程中一直选择积极应对策略。此外造成能源供应链企业在应急过程中选择消极应对策略的原因包括三点,一是中国突发性能源短缺应急效率低,在整个应急过程中不能达到长期演化均衡状态;二是政府的惩罚力度不合理或协同收益较低;三是能源供应链企业的应急成本较高或者协同收益较低。建议能源供应链企业降低应急成本,政府合理调控惩罚力度,两个主体间提高应急工作的协同度,使系统能够达到演化稳定状态,促使能源供应链企业积极应对突发性能源短缺事件。     

Matching mechanism in global public goods games: a case of climate protection

In the setting of dealing with climate change, this article designs a matching mechanism for global public goods provision with the aggregative game approach. Given endowment and the technology of each country, we propose the conditions under which the matching mechanism is able to guarantee full participation and Pareto efficient provision, respectively, in the cases with certain and uncertain preference information. These conditions cannot only be adopted in international negotiation and cooperation, but also refines the theory of matching game. In comparative static analyses, we discover that: First, changes of initial stock of climate goods produce a wealth effect and the crowd-out effect is less than 1. Second, climate tax policies affect the supply and welfare of each country only when they produce wealth effects, and if tax revenue is transferred into climate goods with more advanced technology, they will produce positive wealth effects. Third, modifying matching plans dynamically and appropriately can urge countries to improve technology, and especially given a Pareto optimal mechanism, adjusting the matching plan to keep marginal rates of transformation unchanged as technology changes is still able to ensure full participation and efficient supply of climate goods.     

COOPERATIVE MODELING: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SCIENCE AND THE PUBLIC1

As freshwater resources become more scarce and water management becomes more contentious, new planning approaches are essential to maintain ecologic, economic, and social stability. One technique involves cooperative modeling in which scientists and stakeholders work together to develop a computer simulation model to assist in planning efforts. In the Middle Rio Grande region of New Mexico, where water management is hotly debated, a stakeholder team used a system dynamics approach to create a computer simulation model to facilitate producing a regional plan. While the model itself continues to be valuable, the process for creating the model was also valuable in helping stakeholders jointly develop understanding of and approaches to addressing complex issues. In this paper, the authors document results from post‐project interviews designed to identify strengths and weaknesses of cooperative modeling; to determine if and how the model facilitated the planning process; and to solicit advice for others considering model aided planning. Modeling team members revealed that cooperative modeling did facilitate water planning. Interviewees suggested that other groups try to reach consensus on a guiding vision or philosophy for their project and recognize that cooperative modeling is time intensive. The authors also note that using cooperative modeling as a tool to build bridges between science and the public requires consistent communication about both the process and the product.     

电子废弃物回收产业链协同治理影响因素分析——基于社会网络分析方法

基于探索性多案例分析,使用扎根理论从协同治理层面析出电子废弃物回收产业链治理的影响因素;运用社会网络分析法进一步辨识影响电子废弃物回收产业链协同治理的的关键因素.研究发现：外部环境支撑和提升电子废弃物回收产业链中利益相关者的内外协同能力,进而影响协同治理的行为和效果;企业社会责任和环保责任意识、高层管理者能力及素质、借鉴国外技术与经验是企业内部协同治理的主要驱动力;环境和经济持续发展目标、政府鼓励生产商做拆解、与国内外同行企业沟通与合作则是企业外部协同的引擎.     

Industrial waste management simulation game and its educational effect

The purposes of this study were to develop the Industrial Waste Game and to examine the validity of this game as a tool for environmental education. The aim of this game is to enable players to understand the social dilemma between individual interest of hazardous dumping and the social cost of purifying pollution, and to find a solution to the social dilemma by providing the monitoring and sanction system for illegal dumping or other efficient systems. The game was played by 213 undergraduate students who were divided into 40 groups of 5 to 6 people. One of 4 combinations of monitoring and penalty conditions was assigned to each group. The players were asked to answer questionnaires concerning their interests and understanding of the industrial waste issue before and after the game to evaluate educational effects. The results indicated that the players increased their awareness of industrial waste problems and came to understand that these problems were caused not by psychological factors such as immorality of the illegal dumper but mainly by social structural factors like the social dilemma. Through playing the game and participating in post-game discussion, players were able to obtain interesting experience and gain motivation to learn more.     

Polycentric and resilient perspectives for governing the commons: Strategic and law and economics insights for sustainable development

Commons governance theory is central to identifying and managing conflicts arising from natural and cultural resources traps. Scholars – using game theory and economic analysis of law – have proposed alternative models, consisting of a set of mitigated scenarios, multiple players, and new equilibria in commons governance. Likewise, novel legal innovations of the commons have also been designed. Reinterpreting the commons in light of political economy, ecology, and pluralistic approaches, a critical review of existing scholarship, economic analysis of law, and case study investigations are performed. Examining an array of views – including governance of water in Ecuador, Bolivia, and Italy – a research and policy agenda is put forward to offer original interpretations and novel holistic perspectives. Germane environmental policy implications deriving from SDGs, resilient governance, and polycentric perspectives are thus extrapolated. Finally, pluralistic frameworks drafted by mitigation and adaptation are measured by improved sustainable development performance in commons, resource, and water governance.