Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system.     

Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves

Various indicators of resource scarcity and methods for extrapolating resource availability are examined for phosphorus. These include resource lifetime, and trends in resource price, ore grade and discovery rates, and Hubbert curve extrapolation. Several of these indicate increasing scarcity of phosphate resources. Calculated resource lifetime is subject to a number of caveats such as unanticipated future changes in resource discovery, mining and beneficiation technology, population growth or per-capita demand. Thus it should be used only as a rough planning index or as a relative indicator of potential scarcity. This paper examines the uncertainty in one method for estimating available resources from historical production data. The confidence intervals for the parameters and predictions of the Hubbert curves are computed as they relate to the amount of information available. These show that Hubbert-type extrapolations are not robust for predicting the ultimately recoverable reserves or year of peak production of phosphate rock. Previous successes of the Hubbert curve are for cases in which there exist alternative resources, which is not the situation for phosphate. It is suggested that data other than historical production, such as population growth, identified resources and economic factors, should be included in making such forecasts.     

最小数据方法在舟曲县生态补偿中的应用

弄清补偿标准和新增生态系统服务供给量之间的关系是生态补偿研究中的关键问题.舟曲县现有的补偿是静态补偿,补偿标准低,没有很好地达到改善生态环境的目的.本文基于最小数据方法,以耕地和林地提供的水土保持量的差异表征生态系统服务,通过提供单位水土保持服务的机会成本的空间分布,推导出舟曲县森林水土保持的供给曲线,从而将补偿标准和新增水土保持服务的供给联系起来.同时对比了3种补偿标准下的退耕比例、生态补偿总资金需求和新增水土保持量.研究表明生态补偿在理论上可以提供舟曲县的水土保持能力.随着补偿标准的提高,新增水土保持量也在增加.当补偿标准为250元/亩时,退耕比例仅为8.26%,生态补偿总资金需求为1 930.03万元,新增水土保持量为4.69×104t;当补偿标准提高到518.63 元/亩时,退耕比例增加到49.54%,总资金需求为23 184.26万元,新增水土保持量为2.83×105t;当补偿标准增加到995.65 元/亩时,退耕比例可达到98.79%,总资金需求为87 340.95万元,可新增水土保持量达到5.65×105t.     

考虑降雨入渗的非饱和边坡稳定分析

分析了降雨入渗的边坡稳定问题,通过正交实验确定饱和-非饱和渗流计算参数。采用SEEP/W计算饱和-非饱和渗流,利用SLOPE/W模块计算树坪滑坡在降雨入渗情况下的安全系数。     

利用13X沸石分子筛净化含NH+4-N废水的实验研究

研究了13X沸石分子筛在静态和动态条件下对中低浓度含NH⁺₄-N废水的吸附性能,包括影响吸附的主要因素、沸石对NH⁺₄-N的吸附效果和沸石的再生等。静态实验结果表明,pH值为6.5～7.5,吸附时间35 min,吸附温度20～30℃的条件下,沸石对50 mL NH⁺₄-N初始浓度（C0）为80 mg/L的废水吸附效果最佳,吸附过程符合Langmuir型吸附等温式,饱和吸附量为8.61 mg/g。动态条件下,随水力停留时间增加,沸石对NH⁺₄-N的吸附量上升,最大饱和吸附量可达24.20 mg/g,吸附过程符合Thomas吸附模型。直接焙烧法对吸附后的沸石进行再生活化处理效果良好。实验证明,利用13X沸石净化中低浓度含NH⁺₄-N废水具有良好的工业化应用前景。     

Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability

A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross‐national time‐series analyses (1970–2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.     

Sorption and desorption of lindane by wood charcoal in fixed‐bed reactor

Abstract

Sorption and desorption of lindane (y‐HCH) by wood charcoal (WC) and wood charcoal treated by 1N HNO₃ (WCT) in fixed‐bed reactor (FBR) were investigated in this study. WCT revealed a better performance than WC, in removing lindane in FBR. The breakthrough of lindane was significantly affected by the size of WCT, flow rate to the FBR, and depth of WCT bed. The removal of lindane in the presence of mixture of other pesticides was considerably reduced. The design parameters for FBR were calculated based on the bed‐depth service time (BDST) approach. Many parameters Viz. depth of sorption zone, velocity of sorption, sorbent use rate, critical bed‐depth, bed efficiency, and service time, were determined for design of the fixed‐bed. Using the material balance principle, the characteristics of the wave‐front were evaluated and found that the wave‐front velocity is approximately equal to the sorption velocity determined from the BDST approach. Desorption studies were performed in dilute organic solvent media and they gave an excellent performance in regeneration process.     

分光光度法测COD的应用研究

在COD测定时 ,通过对样品回流液的吸光度测定 ,建立吸光度对COD的回归曲线 ,利用该曲线 ,在测得样品回流液吸光度的情况下 ,可计算出COD。在大批样品测定时 ,能达节省时间和试剂的目的 ,测定效果较好 ,是一种值得推广的方法。     

长江上游流域降雨侵蚀力变化对河流输沙量的影响

利用长江上游主要水文站1956~2010年输沙量数据和雨量站日降雨量时间序列资料,采用线性回归研究流域降雨侵蚀力与河流输沙量的关系,并估算长江上游各子流域降雨侵蚀力变化对河流输沙量的总体贡献。结果表明:长江上游降雨侵蚀力为2 362 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)到3 814 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a),多年平均值为3 006 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a);各子流域的年均降雨侵蚀力差异较大,其中乌江子流域最大,为5 055 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a),金沙江子流域最小(1 560 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)),不足乌江子流域的1/3。各子流域降雨侵蚀力的极值比大小嘉陵江 > 岷江 > 乌江 > 金沙江。长江上游流域以及子流域输沙量在1956~2010年间均呈总体下降趋势,各子流域年均输沙量大小金沙江 > 嘉陵江 > 岷江 > 乌江。降雨侵蚀力变化对长江上游输沙量变化贡献率为7%,对岷江、嘉陵江、乌江子流域输沙量变化的贡献率分别为36%、20%、9%。总体来说,降雨对长江上游输沙量变化的影响不如人类活动的影响大。