Predicting Offenses and Crashes from Young Drivers' Offense and Crash Histories

Previous research has indicated that offenses are better predictors of subsequent crashes than crashes themselves. We examined this hypothesis for 13,800 young beginning drivers in Michigan for up to nine years during the initial years of driving. Our analyses indicated that previous-year offenses are better predictors of both subsequent-year offenses and crashes than either previous-year crashes or at-fault crashes. This finding also held for the apparently higher-risk subset of subsequent-year serious offenses and at-fault crashes. Although there were no gender differences in the predictive power of crashes, it was found that the predictive power of previous offenses to subsequent serious offenses was significantly stronger for women than for men. The predictive power of incidents appeared to increase somewhat with increasing driving experience, suggesting that early incidents may be more attributable to inexperience, a characteristic of all beginning drivers, while later incidents may be more attributable to individual differences.     

Hazard evaluation of hydrogen–air deflagration with flame propagation velocity measurement by image velocimetry using brightness subtraction

Deflagration phenomena in hydrogen–air mixtures initially filled in 1.4 m³ spherical latex balloons were measured using a high-speed digital video camera and pressure transducers. The image velocimetry using brightness subtraction was introduced to eliminate the background effects for obtaining accurate time evolution records of flame propagation velocity. The maximum flame propagation velocity of about 100 m/s was observed with maximum overpressure 15 kPa at 1 m from ignition point. According to the detailed flame propagation velocity records, there were long deceleration durations. The observed maximum overpressure was smaller than the overpressure estimated by the basis of the observed maximum flame propagation velocity and the pressure wave theories of spherical flames. A new blast curve plot of scaled overpressure vs. distance was tentatively proposed.     

Is there a Kuznets curve for cropland use? The evidence from international panel data

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis assumes the nonlinear relationship between production and its environmental effects, suggesting that the negative effect of production on the natural environment is reversed at higher levels of development. In contrast to the majority of the studies, this paper considers the possibility of non-linear effects of per capita output on agricultural land use (cropland), as one of the natural resource stocks, and additionally examines the influence of demographic and productivity variables on the agricultural land use. The study draws on panel data from 143 economies over the 1990–2019 period and employs a series of panel econometrics techniques (including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel ordinary least squares, generalized method of moments, and panel quantile models). The results unequivocally indicate the inverted U-shaped relationship between the GDP per capita and cropland use, as per EKC hypothesis. The results are robust with respect to employing different techniques, the identified turning points correspond to low and low-middle-income levels, and the effects of agricultural productivity and population density on land use are respectively negative and positive.     

基于时空分布特征的煤层瓦斯测压准确性研究

为获得真实可靠的现场实测煤层瓦斯压力,实现煤层突出灾害等级科学评价和精准防治,通过理论分析、数值模拟和现场验证相结合的方法,以双重孔隙介质为基础,根据煤层瓦斯流动模型和瓦斯压力恢复曲线,分析煤层瓦斯压力测定的时空分布及准确性,并以桃园煤矿Ⅱ1采区10煤层为例,开展工程验证.研究结果表明:当基质瓦斯压力与裂隙瓦斯压力处于...     

局部通风机实际特性的近似处理方法及应用研究

针对目前局部风机特性曲线很难得到或应用而导致局部通风研究受限问题,提出一种根据局部风机风量及风压范围近似求解风机特性曲线的方法。该方法采用一次线性插值函数代替风机特性曲线函数,结合风阻特性曲线得到风机工况。基于该方法可进行局部风机选型或预测既定型号风机工况点及风筒出口风量,同时可确定长距离掘进通风中钻孔通风有效风量与钻孔长度、直径的关系,也可确定风库中转位置与风筒长度的关系。应用分析结果表明:用一次函数代替稳定区域风机特性曲线函数不仅简单方便,结果较精确,且方法可靠、实用性高。     

MODELING WATER BALANCE WITH THE ERHYM MODEL ON SOUTH TEXAS RANGELANDS1

ABSTRACT: Understanding the hydrologic processes of rangeland plant communities is essential to determine if water augmentation through shrub management is feasible. Vegetation manipulation studies are costly, difficult to accurately replicate, and often require more than 10 years to determine treatment effect on the water budget. If properly applied, hydrologic simulation models are an attractive alternative for assessing vegetation manipulation practices. The ERHYM-II model was evaluated to determine if it was capable of simulating the water balance for honey mesquite shrub clusters, grass interspaces, and bare soil in south Texas. The simulated water budget was within 2 percent of the measured evapotranspiration for the shrub clusters and grass interspaces. The model underestimated the number of runoff events and overestimated runoff volume for the grass interspace and shrub clusters. Simulated runoff was overestimated by approximately twofold for the grass interspace and threefold for the shrub clusters. Although simulated runoff was substantially overestimated, observed and simulated runoff only accounted for 3 to 6 percent of annual rainfall for the grass and shrub dominated areas, respectively. Simulated evapotranspiration was underestimated by 18 percent and soil water content was overestimated by 82 percent for the bare soil. The model underestimated evapotranspiration for the bare soil as a result of restricting evaporative losses to the first soil layer. Based on our analysis, the ERHYM-II model has the potential for simulating the annual water balance for semiarid rangeland plant communities where runoff and deep drainage are limited components of the water balance.     

IMPROVED RAINFALL/RUNOFF ESTIMATES USING REMOTELY SENSED SOIL MOISTURE1

ABSTRACT: Remotely sensed soil moisture data measured during the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) experiment in Oklahoma were used to characterize antecedent soil moisture conditions for the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. The precipitation‐adjusted curve number and the soil moisture were strongly related (r²= 0.70). Remotely sensed soil moisture fields were used to adjust the curve numbers and the runoff estimates for five watersheds, in the Little Washita watershed; the results ranged from 2.8 km² to 601.6 km². The soil moisture data were applied at two spatial scales, a finer one (800 m) measuring spatial resolution and a coarser one (28 km). The root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the runoff estimated by the standard SCS method was reduced by nearly 50 percent when the 800 m soil moisture data were used to adjust the curve number. The coarser scale soil moisture data also significantly reduced the error in the runoff predictions with 41 percent and 28 percent reductions in MAE and RMSE, respectively. The results suggest that remote sensing of soil moisture, when combined with the SCS method, can improve rainfall runoff predictions at a range of spatial scales.     

胡杨、灰叶胡杨不同种源苗期生长动态研究

采用Logistic曲线对胡杨、灰叶胡杨不同种源苗高与地径生长进行拟合,并估测了速生期的2个拐点及其长度。结果表明:①高、径生长均符合"S"型曲线,年生长可划分为生长初期、速生期、硬化期三个时期;②径生长速生期起始时间均早于高生长,而结束时间要晚于高生长;③胡杨高、径生长速生期起始、结束时间均早于灰叶胡杨,并且持续天数也低于灰叶胡杨。     

Generalized Nondimensional Depth‐Discharge Rating Curves Tested on Florida Streamflow1

Abstract: A discharge rating is a relationship between stage and discharge at a specific point in a river stream or lake outlet structure. Rating curves are useful for interpolating and perhaps extrapolating flow measurements and for use directly in storage routing models. However, rating data and stations are limited. A generalized nondimensional mathematical expression that describes the rating relation of depth and discharge has been developed and tested against observations from 46 stations in West‐Central Florida. Three approaches were tested in sequence to select the best fit. The proposed model is a log‐linear equation with zero intercept and a slope that fits more than 50% of the stations were analyzed. The model is normalized by the depth and discharge values at 10% exceedance from data published by the U.S. Geological Survey. For ungauged applications, Q₁₀ and d₁₀ were derived from a relationship shown to be reasonably well correlated to the watershed drainage area. The average relative error for this parameter set shows that for the flow range up to the Q₁₀ discharge, better than 30% agreement with the USGS rating data can be expected for about 50% of the stations. Further analysis is required to determine why so many stations exhibit such similar behavior and to identify the criteria or parameters governing the differences.     

涂铁多孔陶瓷对水中亚甲基蓝的动态吸附

研究了涂铁多孔陶瓷填料柱对水中亚甲基蓝（MB）的动态吸附性能。探讨了填料高度、MB初始质量浓度和流速对穿透曲线的影响;分别用BDST模型、Thomas模型和线性回归对动态吸附实验数据拟合,获得了相关参数,并研究了填料的再生性能。结果表明,涂铁多孔陶瓷（IOCPC）能有效去除水中MB,填料层升高,穿透曲线上的穿透点向右移动,穿透时间延长;而随流速、MB初始质量浓度的增大,穿透曲线上的穿透点向左移动,穿透时间缩短。用BDST模型能准确预测穿透时间,误差＜5%;用Thomas模型可较好地描述了MB浓度为10和50 mg/L、初速为2 mL/min时IOCPC对MB的吸附动力学,相关系数分别为0.99和0.93,平衡吸附容量分别为0.078和0.13 mg/g。对吸附饱和后的涂铁多孔陶瓷可用pH=3的硝酸再生,重复使用3次穿透曲线上的穿透点基本不变。