BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

基于链式多重插补的WOA-ELM煤与瓦斯突出预测模型

为了提高缺失数据下煤与瓦斯突出预测准确率,提出1种基于链式支持向量机多重插补(MICE＿SVM)的鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)-极限学习机(ELM)预测模型,以淮南朱集矿区为例,选取5个煤与瓦斯突出影响指标作为模型特征,采用提出的MICE＿SVM算法插补突出事故数据中缺失值,利用WOA优选ELM输入层权值及隐含层阈值,构建煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,将插补后数据用于WOA-ELM模型的训练与测试,并与其他模型的预测效果对比。研究结果表明：MICE＿SVM插补前、后的有突出数据预测准确率分别为83.02%,90.41%,MICE＿SVM显著提高了有突出预测准确率,对无突出和整体的预测准确率提高不明显;数据插补后WOA优化ELM对无突出、有突出和整体的预测准确率分别为97.94%,96.25%,96.48%,较优化前分别提高了5.79%,5.84%,5.55%,数据插补后WOA-ELM为最佳预测模型。     

Characteristics of plankton Hg bioaccumulations based on a global data set and the implications for aquatic systems with aggravating nutrient imbalance

• Hg bioaccumulation by phytoplankton varies among aquatic ecosystems. • Active Hg uptake may exist for the phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems. • Impacts of nutrient imbalance on food chain Hg transfer should be addressed. The bioaccumulation of mercury (Hg) in aquatic ecosystem poses a potential health risk to human being and aquatic organism. Bioaccumulations by plankton represent a crucial process of Hg transfer from water to aquatic food chain. However, the current understanding of major factors affecting Hg accumulation by plankton is inadequate. In this study, a data set of 89 aquatic ecosystems worldwide, including inland water, nearshore water and open sea, was established. Key factors influencing plankton Hg bioaccumulation (i.e., plankton species, cell sizes and biomasses) were discussed. The results indicated that total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in plankton in inland waters were significantly higher than those in nearshore waters and open seas. Bioaccumulation factors for the logarithm of THg and MeHg of phytoplankton were 2.4–6.0 and 2.6–6.7 L/kg, respectively, in all aquatic ecosystems. They could be further biomagnified by a factor of 2.1–15.1 and 5.3–28.2 from phytoplankton to zooplankton. Higher MeHg concentrations were observed with the increases of cell size for both phyto- and zooplankton. A contrasting trend was observed between the plankton biomasses and BAF_MeHg, with a positive relationship for zooplankton and a negative relationship for phytoplankton. Plankton physiologic traits impose constraints on the rates of nutrients and contaminants obtaining process from water. Nowadays, many aquatic ecosystems are facing rapid shifts in nutrient compositions. We suggested that these potential influences on the growth and composition of plankton should be incorporated in future aquatic Hg modeling and ecological risk assessments.     

基于PS-InSAR技术探测地表形变的实验研究

常规合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术在区域地表形变探测中存在时空失相关和大气延迟的影响,为了克服或减弱它们的影响,分离和提取线性、非线性形变时间序列以及地形数据误差与大气信号,以西安市沉降场为研究对象,用17景Envisat数据进行了实验研究,并与常规D-InSAR结果比较,证实了PS-InSAR技术用于地表形变监测的有效性.     

基于层次分析法的Pedersen人因失误模型研究

科技的发展,使机器设备可靠性有了显著提高,工作环境也得到了改善,但由于人的复杂性,人因失误成为主要的致因因素,如何预防和控制人的失误就成为一个非常重要的课题.运用层次分析法的基本原理,结合Pedersen人因失误模型,构建了导致人因失误的层次分析模型,计算结果显示,人在某种状态下承受负荷的能力大小是影响其失误的主要原因.通过实例,证明了计算结果的可靠性,并提出了减少人因失误的建议.     

地震台站体应变观测资料处理系统简介

介绍了新近研制的地震台站体应变观测资料的日常处理系统 ;简要地介绍了该系统及其数据库的结构以及各功能模块的作用。     

大数据环境下企业安全绩效管理的基础性问题*

为明晰大数据对安全绩效管理的影响,把握信息时代下企业安全绩效管理的研究方向,基于大数据时代下安全绩效管理内容,阐述数据驱动下安全绩效管理的应用优势,探讨数据驱动下安全绩效管理的研究变革,剖析大数据环境下企业安全绩效管理的数据流向,构建数据驱动下安全绩效管理的框架模型,并提出数据驱动下企业安全绩效管理应用对策。结果表明:基于大数据的安全绩效管理有助于提升企业安全管理水平,也为安全生产系统优化提供理论依据。     

环境空气质量自动监测系统数据的三级审核

目前,环境空气自动监测已成为我国城市环境空气监测的主要技术手段,我国已有百余个城市拥有这类监测系统。由于此类系统监测具有实时在线的特点,因此数据量很大,本文针对环境空气自动监测系统日常运行中获取的大量数据进行三级审核的特点,提出了如何加强环境空气自动监测系统中日常监测数据的审核工作。     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Single‐Family Residential Water Use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Studies that evaluate determinants of residential water demand typically use data from a single spatial scale. Although household‐scale data are preferred, especially when econometric models are used, researchers may be limited to aggregate data. There is little, if any, empirical analysis to assess whether spatial scale may lead to ecological fallacy problems in residential water use research. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we compare the results for the relationship of single‐family water use with its determinants using data from the household and census tract scales in the city of Phoenix. Model results between the household and census tract scale are similar suggesting the ecological fallacy may not be significant. Common significant determinants on these two spatial scales include household size, household income, house age, pool size, irrigable lot size, precipitation, and temperature. We also use city/town scale data from the Phoenix metropolitan area to parameterize the linear mixed‐effects model. The difference in the parameter estimates of those common variables compared to the first two scales indicates there is spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between single‐family water use and its determinants among cities and towns. The negative relationship between single‐family house density and residential water use suggests that residential water consumption could be reduced through coordination of land use planning and water demand management.     

地理信息系统技术及其在环境科学中的应用

论述了地理信息系统的组成,主要功能,分类等特性,重点介绍了ＧＩＳ数据库设计模型的演变及ＧＩＳ空间数据模型,阐述了ＧＩＳ在环境学科领域的应用现状,包括环境管理,环境影响评价,面源污染分析,水资源管理与分析,给排水管网设计和管理,近海水域管理和分析,环境监测,减灾防灾及紧急事故管理,生物多样性保护与可发展研究等,并介绍了ＧＩＳ在环境科学中的应用前景。